To protect or not to protect
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To protect or not to protect
Matt Gelb
Another milepost of baseball's winter hits at 11:59 p.m. Tuesday, the moment when 40-man rosters must be set in advance of the ever-thrilling Rule 5 draft. There will be a flurry of roster moves in the next two days as teams decide which players are worth protecting.
Not everyone is eligible for selection in Rule 5 draft, which takes place Dec. 6. Eligibility is dependent on a player's age when he was signed. The general guideline: If 19 or older when signed, you must be protected after four years. If 18 or younger, protection is required after five years of service time.
The Phillies currently have 34 players on their 40-man roster. It's unlikely they fill all six spots with minor leaguers. Last winter, they lost righty Lendy Castillo to the Cubs in the Rule 5 draft. Castillo is now property of Chicago after spending the entire 2012 season on the active major-league roster.
Protecting players is not always about pure talent; teams also must consider how likely it is Player X is selected in the Rule 5 draft.
And now, the candidates (April 2013 age in parenthesis):
SURE BETS
RHP Trevor May (23) — He entered 2012 rated as the organization's top prospect by many and stumbled to a 4.87 ERA with 22 home runs allowed and a sharp decline in strikeout numbers. Nonetheless, May remains one of the top pitching talents because of his stuff. It'll be interesting to see whether he repeats double A or jumps to triple A in April.
RHP Jonathan Pettibone (22) — The jump to the Eastern League was fruitful for Pettibone, a former third-round pick never described as flashy. He maintained his strikeout rate (albeit it low) and even showed enough to warrant a late-season tryout in triple A. He succeeded there, too. Pettibone has made at least 23 starts in three straight seasons.
RHP Ethan Martin (23) — Acquired in the Shane Victorino trade, Martin excelled at Reading during a limited stint. Control will always be a concern; Martin has walked 5.5 batters per nine innings in his minor-league career. In seven starts with Reading, that figure was 4.1. After repeating double A in 2012, a promotion to triple A for the former first-rounder is likely in line.
THE TWEENERS
OF Zach Collier (22) — The former first-round pick missed the first 50 games of 2012 because of a suspension for adderal. At single-A Clearwater, he posted his finest offensive numbers yet. Then the Phillies sent Collier to the Arizona Fall League and he dominated with a .371/.461/.532 line in 62 at-bats. It could be enough to protect him.
OF Leandro Castro (23) — Castro was unprotected last season and not selected. A decent (and healthy) season at Reading put him back on the map. But he profiles similarly to Collier and Tyson Gillies, who already has a spot on the 40-man roster. There may not be enough room for them all, considering the Phillies still have signings to make in the outfield.
RHP Julio Rodriguez (22) — In July, he represented the Phillies at the annual Futures Game in Kansas City. He was hit hard there and it portended a dismal second half of 2012. Rodriguez was shuttled between the rotation and bullpen at double-A Reading. His walks jumped after a magnificent 2011 in Clearwater. Scouts have never been enamored with his high 80s fastball.
RHP Colby Shreve (25) — Shreve, a sixth-round pick, started 2012 at single-A Lakewood and finished at double-A Reading. He's older for those leagues and has never been a big strikeout arm as a reliever. The Phillies sent him to AFL for another look and he was mediocre in 10 innings there.
OF Jiwan James (24) — He was left unprotected last winter and Phillies officials predicted he'd be plucked from their system. That did not happen. James responded with a lackluster season in Reading (.249/.291/.360). Given he was not taken in 2011, expect the Phillies to follow the same path in 2012.
Here is how the current 40-man roster is comprised:
Pitchers — 19
Catchers — 3
Infielders — 7
Outfielders — 5
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
This is why "protecting" first-round, 11th grade draft picks when a stud like Josh Hamilton is available is idiotic. Sign Hamilton. Keep our to-die-for starting rotation intact and run hell-bent into 2013. Or else, analyze ourselves to death with marginal free agents and Juan Pierre acquisitions and finish 81-81.
— eman- Agree with eman, sign Hamilton, RUF and Dbrown, Mike Adams, and 1 year of Youk and HRs soar— WFChamps
- Pierre did well for Phills but they have to think of future. Washington is very strong. Harper and Strassburg figure to be better. Phills should sign Youkilis and a one year deal though preferable will not get him. Youkilis for 3B and one from Hamilton, Victorino and Upton. My preferance would be in that order. Still dont think payroll will permit Hamilton signing. So many giving up on Brown and he's 25 years old. Still time for him to come through.— Don w
- The 4 Tweenere, Castro, Rodriguez, Shreve and James, are not worthwhile protecting. Open up those spots for some talent. Look at the 19 pitchers -- the numbers are out of balance with the other positions.— 1republican
- Youkilis wants at least a 2 year deal. The way the market is going, with Melky Cabrera signing a 2 year $18 million deal after the PED suspension and Torii Hunter getting a very generous deal, and Anibal Sanchez asking almost $100 millions, is going to be expensive to sign FA. Hamilton is not coming here. First, he'll be too expensive and has too many physical and mental issues. Too risky.— EL Zorro
- Even the Rangers, with all the money they have, don't want to give him more than a 3 year deal.— EL Zorro
- dasher, I agree that the rule 5 draft is a crapshoot. Please rty to remember that Shane Victorino also came to the Phillies via that route. Even you would have to call that move a success. Look around baseball and you'll find that not too many successful players were acquired via the rule 5 draft. The Phillies rule 5 record is pretty good.— maurysline
- I hate the word prospect. Sounds too much like suspect.— jeromie
- Last year 12 players were taken in the major league Rule Five. Eight pitchers, three infielders and an outfielders. So the likely profile of a Rule Five draftee is a pitcher who can throw say in the mid to high 90's still with an upside that can be a 12th man on a major league pitching staff. Certainly enough scouts were at Instructs and the AFL recently to identify such a player.— Dull
- the phillies don't need more home run hitters they do need a manager that can still win with single doubles and stolen bases and chuck is not the Guy— abbyzuk
- El Zorro, you're right that time is certainly running out for Ramirez, but you probably should have mentioned that the 10.80 ERA is in 3.1 innings.— schmenkman
- How bad we're the Phillies? Look at the stats on the sports home page. Rollins team leader in HRS RBIs think they have it wrong with BA as Ruiz was higher than 253— Johnny Callison
