State of the Phillies: Center field
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State of the Phillies: Center field
David Murphy
Yesterday, we kicked off our week-long State of the Phillies series by breaking down the past, present and future of the first base and second base positions. Our mission over these next few days is to identify where, exactly, the Phillies can improve this roster. The outfield is one such area, although the free agent market isn't exactly bursting with talent there either. In today's story in the Daily News, Ruben Amaro Jr. tells Ryan Lawrence that the trade market could offer some possibilities. Here, we break it down.
This is the position that offers the most options for the Phillies thanks to the relative abundance of center fielders who are scheduled to hit free agency. Like most of the other positions on the market, though, this one does not offer a ton of high-end options, meaning to land one a team will have to open up the checkbook.
I. 2012 production, Phillies center fielders (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .268 (7)
OBP: .332 (10)
SLG: .412 (8)
OPS: .745 (9)
HR: 16 (7)
RBI: 66 (6)
RS: 75 (13)
BREAKDOWN: Like most aspects of this Phillies team, center field was a tale of two halves. The first half featured Shane Victorino posting a below-average batting line of .261/.324/.401 with nine home runs. The second one featured John Mayberry Jr. posting a line of .258/.330/.399 with six home runs. The first three months saw the Phillies get poor bang for their buck (a $9.5 million salary for Victorino). The final two months saw the Phillies get about the bang they paid for in a $480,000 salary for Mayberry. All told, the Phillies were about league average, with below average marks in on base percentage and runs scored (funny how those two categories seem to be related).
II. Future Salary Commitments
2012: $9.5 million, 5.34 percent of luxury tax threshold (Shane Victorino, Opening Day)
2013: None
FLEXIBILITY: Plenty. End of story.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- John Mayberry Jr., 29, pre-Arb (2.095 ST) under club control through 2016
- Nate Schierholtz, 29, arb-eligible, $1.3 million in 2012 (4.078 ST) under club control through 2014
- Tyson Gillies, 24, AA
BREAKDOWN: Mayberry spent most of the half playing center field. He can handle the position defensively, and performs well enough against left-handed pitchers that he is in the conversation. But at this point he projects as a rotational guy at best. Schierholtz spent some time in center field but he doesn't appear to have the range to be a viable everyday or even platoon guy. I did not list Michael Martinez because he really shouldn't be in the conversation for anything more than organizational depth. Gillies posted an .809 OPS in 339 plate appearances at Double-A Reading. This is a make-or-break year for him. The Phillies saw some reason for hope last season, but he'll need to stay on the field and perform while he is there for the entire first half of 2013 before we start talking about him as a potential big leaguer.
IV. Potential for Personnel upgrades
FREE AGENT MARKET: Aside from the bullpen, this is the vacancy that has the greatest volatility for the Phillies moving forward. There are so many options available that there is plenty of potential to grab a guy at a reasonable cost will ends up having a big season and making a difference in the lineup. Identifying which guys will fall into that category is the tricky part. I don't think even the Phillies know what direction they will head at this point. The smart play is patience, since the only clear difference-maker available is Josh Hamilton, and that situation is so unique that I find it hard to believe that the Phillies would make a serious push. Patience could be difficult to exert, since the center field market has all the makings of one in which agents and players will spend the early part of the offseason waiting for the first domino to fall. Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton are likely the first two dominos, but both have the right combination of potential and red flags to lead to a stalemate with teams who target them. Which would likely leave players like Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera and Shane Victorino waiting around for the top of the market to get set. Those five are the clear everyday options who will be available. Cody Ross and Scott Hairston probably are not everyday options, although it would not surprise me to see one of those two land with the Phillies. At least right now it wouldn't. That could change as we look deeper at the position, which we'll do between now and the start of free agency. At this point, though, the Phillies' likely path is impossible to predict.
TRADE MARKET: Buster Olney reported earlier this week that Chris Young is very much available from the Diamondbacks. There are plenty of reasons why such a deal probably wouldn't make sense for the Phillies. For starters, Young is a career .224/.311/.409 hitter away from Chase Field, compared with a .254/.325/.465 hitter at home. Secondly, he is a career .228/.299/.419 hitter against righties. Since roughly 2/3rds of his plate appearances are going to come against righties, that can be a problem. Third, he is due to make $8.5 million in 2012, along with a $1.5 million buyout of an $11 million club option. If the Diamondbacks are not expecting anything in the way of prospects in return, $10 million for one season of Chris Young would not be the worst idea in the world. Still Gerardo Parra would make a lot more sense. But he'd also seem to make more sense for the Diamondbacks to keep. Which is why trading for players is not easy.
Denard Span has spent all season hearing his name in trade rumors. Again, this one falls into the category of not being worth the price it would likely cost to obtain him. Span hit .283/.342/.395 this season, but over the last three years that line is .271/.334/.367. He is affordable at $11.25 million over the next two seasons. But it still would appear to make more sense to go with a lower-cost free agent option instead of spending prospects on a player who really hasn't shown above-average hitting ability since his first couple of years in the league.
V. Center field: In conclusion
Judging by the emails I have received, there is a contingent of fans who would like to see the Phillies bring back Shane Victorino instead of pursuing change for change's sake. My intuition tells me that this is unlikely to happen, mostly because Ruben Amaro Jr. and Charlie Manuel have both said publicly that they believe that change for change's sake can be a good thing. That being said, the market has a funny way of affecting these decisions, and it could very well shake out that Victorino is the most cost-effective option.
- Totally agree with Hamilton. Way Charlie manages we need the Hrs period. Not 25 but 40+
NL perfect for him, 4 years 100 mill.
But won't be able to get Ross too, but I think RUF is the real deal, and a 300 hitter.
Add Mike Adams, and a Martinez replacement for AAA and good to go— WFChamps - Ruf gets put in left field and hits either 5th/6th behind Howard and or Ruiz. Rollins, Frandsen, Utley, Howard, Ruf/Ruiz, Brown/Mayberry Jr., Pitcher. This is the current projected line up without any changes. If RAJ/Monty bring in a CF, depending on who, Frandsen could be moved to the #8 spot with the new CF batting 2nd, assuming he can make contact. The #2 hitter needs to make contact and be able to move runners by hitting the other way or sacraficing. Utley/Howard/Ruiz/Ruf is a tough row to pitch to, especially if Rollins and the #2 hitter can get on or move a runner over. There is potential here folks.— drhoffman
- I like your thinking. Pretty close to what I have been saying this offseason. My ideas are to sign Swisher & a stud set up man and move Utley to the 2 hole. Ruf absolutely starts in LF and could be replaced defensively late in games (like Burrell), same thing with Frandsen (galvis late in games). Lineup would look like this: Jroll, Utley, Swisher, Howard, Chooch, Ruf, Frandsen , Mayberry.
Thats a pretty solid lineup with a lot more pop and balance then before. While a Bourne or Upton would upgrade center I think the value is in replacing Brown/Schierholtz in RF with Swisher. Its also laughable at the suggestion of Chris Young. He absolutely is not an upgrade in CF, especially considering the $.— philsfan in the atx - Stick with Big John Mayberry! Give him a legitimate shot!— ngfs66
- Hamilton is too risky. That means he won't be getting deals as long as Pujols or fielder. Maybe a shorter deal for close the amount of money. Would something like three years 85-90 million get Hamilton to bite? Would love to see Rollins, utley, Hamilton, Howard then Chooch. What a one thru five. Switch hitter, lefty, righty, left, righty. The sticking point is the annual salary to Hamilton. Phil's would def have t make up for the shorter contract length with a higher annual salary. Would Uncle Monty ok $30 million a year for MLB's top RBI guy for the last 4 or 5 years????— michael2_19030
- We had Shane. We didn't make the playoffs. Goodbye Shane. I want to move on.— bmcw
- Say no to Hamilton, too many issues, health, past, state of mind. Even Texas is letting him test the market without initiating negotiations. Just think about that. He's not worth the risk/reward, no to mention his asking price.— EL Zorro
- No to Upton or Bourn, yes to Fowler. Also possibly yes to Denard Span, if he's recovered from the minor injuries that cost him playing time last year and this year. Murphy is a little quick to dismiss Span, whose lifetime line is .284/.357/.389 -- a better OBP than the people the Phillies have had in CF recently. (Span's slugging % is lower, but that just means he wouldn't hit in the middle of the order as Vic and Mayberry have done.)— Dave Clemens
- With Hamilton's problems, on and off the field, i certainly
would'nt give him the 85 to 90 mil for 3 years as someone
suggested. That's almost 30 mil per year for the above
mentioned problems. Good hitter? Yes. Basket case? Yes.
Worth that kind of money? No. This guy could crack as almost
anytime without any warning. These people who are saying we
should get Hamilton for all that money and then Hamilton
fails are the ones that will be leading the march to hang RAJ.— associate - RE: Hamilton - Cannot afford another player with a salary that eats a high percentage of the budget. Too many other needs. He is also at the age when he could start breaking down. Fowler or Pagan make more sense. If Victorino can be had for bargain he would be a good backup. if the manager wears earplugs. Realistically, Phils need some luck and good health while they wait for prospects to mature at third,pitching. Ruben needs some luck or better use of scouting reports in picking backups. Nix is a case in point where health and luck are needed.— johnny eagle
- C'mon guys - your taking a gamble on Hamilton. We are talking three years as MLB' s highest paid player - not five years, not 8 years, not ten years. Three!!!— michael2_19030
- The only veteran difference-maker out there is Hamilton. If you can get him on a 4 year deal you have to do it. I'd pass on the rest of the guys and bank on Gillies, because you know if the Phillies ink a vet to a 3-4 year deal, it doesn't matter how good Gillies plays, he won't ever sniff the majors and I'd rather see them not pay $10 million per year for $500K production with no upside.— jtj06
- Would be happy with the return of the "Happy
Would be happy with return of "Happy Hawaiaan" next season
— Eugene Bell - Some one in the Phillies org is out of theit ever loven mind. Broke up a world champ out field for what ever reason. Now you have the worst out field in the game. Werth is looking good. Ibans looking good. Vic looking good. Give me a brake with these clowns we are stuck with.— old SC Frank
- Agree Hamiltons the one sure difference maker in FA. Forget getting him for 3 years. We are talking about one of MLBs best hitters. It is going to take at least 100-120 for 5 years to get him. With state of Phills payroll doubt Phills doing this. Whoever signs him will want clause in contract regarding substance issues. Actually there is something similar in contracts now. G.M. Ryan arguing about time Hamilton chose to stop tobacco chewing. Im hoping Phills wind up with middle of the order hitter. Preferbly righthanded hitter who plays CF. Dont see much out there that fits this.— Don w
