State of the Phillies: First base
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State of the Phillies: First base
David Murphy
This week, the Daily News and High Cheese will be taking an in-depth look at the Phillies roster moving forward, breaking down the state of each position as it relates to the future and the present. In Tuesday's newspaper, Ryan Lawrence will look at the infield. Today, we'll start things off with a look at first base.
The success of a lineup is dictated by the economics of salary and personnel distribution, and the Phillies' production at first base in 2012 was a prime example. The market of talent in baseball features a strong supply of players who can both hit for power and reach base at rates above the league average. Of the $178 million that a team can spend before it exceeds the luxury tax threshold, the Phillies allocated 14.05 percent to their starter at first base. Really, the number is slightly higher than that when you factor in the $10 million that each team is required to pay for player benefits, which counts against the threshold (in other words, teams can spend about $168 million on player salaries before going over the threshold). In 2012, the Phillies flunked those economics, as their production at third base was well below league average in most major offensive categories.
I. 2012 production, Phillies first basemen (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .234 (13)
OBP: .308 (13)
SLG: .415 (11)
OPS: .723 (13)
HR: 27 (4)
RBI: 102 (3)
RS: 75 (10)
BREAKDOWN: Ryan Howard struggled after he returned from the disabled list in early July, hitting .219/.295/.423 with 99 strikeouts in 260 at-bats in 71 games. Howard maintained his knack for hitting with runners on base (his 56 RBI in 71 games would equate to 127 RBI in 162 games) and for hitting home runs (14 HR in 71 games equates to 31 HR in 162 games). But a .219 batting average and .295 on base percentage are significant detriments: if you value RBI, you must value runs scored, and a hitter must reach base in order to score runs. Howard recorded career-worst marks in walk rate, strikeout rate and at-bats-per-home-run. The first three months of the season featured Ty Wigginton (62 games, .757 OPS) and John Mayberry Jr. (24 games, .625 OPS) getting the bulk of the action at first base. Combined, the result was production that was well below what the majority of other National League teams received from first base.
II. Future Salary Commitments (Edited to reflect lux. tax threshold increase to $189 mil in '14)
2012: Ryan Howard, 33 years old, $20.0 million (14.05 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2013: Ryan Howard, 34 years old, $20.0 million (14.05 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2014: Ryan Howard, 35 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2015: Ryan Howard, 36 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2016: Ryan Howard, 37 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold
2017: Ryan Howard, 38 years old, $23.0 million or $10 million buyout (13.23 percent or 0.00 percent of luxury tax threshold)
Flexibility: None. Howard is still owed $95 million in annual salary over the next four seasons, plus a $10 million buyout in 2017. His luxury tax cost is $25 million a season over the next four years, and he will be 33 years old during the 2013 season.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- Ryan Howard, 33, $25 million average annual value (AAV) signed through 2016
- John Mayberry Jr., 29, pre-Arb (2.095 service time), club control through at least 2016
- Laynce Nix, 32, $1.25 million AAV signed thru 2013.
- Darin Ruf, 26, pre-Arb (< 1.000 ST), club control through at least 2018
- Erik Kratz, 33, pre-Arb (<1.000 ST), club control through at least 2018
BREAKDOWN: First base will not be a priority for the Phillies for the foreseeable future. Manuel said late in the season that he thought Kratz could handle spot duty at first base, although there is no indication that will play a major role in 2013. Ruf, like any player with one month of big league experience, is an unknown, although he is the best chance for the Phillies to have some young depth at the position over the life of Howard's contract.
IV. Potential for personnel upgrades
TRADE POTENTIAL: None. Even during Howard's healthy 2011 season, his .253/.346/.488 batting line and 33 home runs were nearly identical to Adam LaRoche's .271/.343/.510 and 33 home runs for the Nationals this year. LaRoche, of course, was making $8 million in AAV compared with $25 million for Howard. Just to give Howard away to another team, the Phillies would likely have to eat at least half of the money remaining on his contract.
Disagree? Prior to 2011, Paul Konerko signed a three-year, $37.5 million deal that covered his 35, 36 and 37 years old seasons. Howard is due to earn $75 million for his 35-to-37-year-old seasons, plus a $10 million buyout for his 38-year-old season. If Konerko's contract is what the free market would bear for those years of power production at first base, there is little reason to expect that a team would assume more than that amount in acquiring Howard. Factor in the fact that Konerko's number have been better than Howard's over the past few seasons, and that Konerko is not one year removed from a ruptured Achilles, and it is pretty safe to say that the market would view Howard as, at best, a $12.5 million-per-season player over the remaining four years of his contract.
The time for maneuvering at first base was the last few seasons, when Howard, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez all signed new deals. The Phillies made their choice, and now it is on Howard to prove them right or wrong.
FREE AGENT MARKET: With a slew of elite first baseman having signed contract extensions over the previous few seasons, the 2013 market is not a strong one. Assuming the Nationals exercise LaRoche's $10 million option, the only potential everyday players available are Mike Napoli, Carlos Pena and James Loney. The rest: Jason Giambi, Eric Hinske, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Casey Kotchman, Ty Wigginton, Lyle Overbay, Xavier Nady.
V. First base: In conclusion
The Phillies have no choice but to believe that Howard will get back to the production level he offered when they signed him to a five-year, $125 million contract extension during the 2010 season, when he still had two years left on his existing deal. The first baseman was not in the same physical condition that he was before his surgery, which the Phillies hope will be rectified by an offseason of his usual training regimen. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has acknowledged that the Phillies' future will be dictated largely by the performance of the players who are earning significant dollars, and Howard is the most crucial member of that club.
Howard is not this teams problem. The main problem on this team is Manuel a complete and utter loser who does not have a clue on how to manage— gates2012- A very well done article. David Murphy is at his best when he digs into stats.
I don't question the Phillies on signing Howard. His early years were historic. The past two were forgettable.— hawk18 - Can't wait to see a 37-year old Ryan Howard in red pinstripes. Good job, Ruin!— dasher
- @dash, the very thought of that - Howard at 37 still trotting out to 1B and hitting 4th no doubt (with Charlie pushing 75 at that time still running the show) - is enough to make grown men cry. Or laugh hysterically, my bet is on the latter and I'm sure yours is, too.
By the way, I'm unveiling a new moniker for our favorite GM tonight, one that will take a clear back seat to your Ruin Tomorrow award winner, but one that might get some play...
Ruben's A Moron, Jr.
Or maybe not.— advantasux - I've been asking the same question for 5 years now..
Why are Manuel and Dubee still employed in Philadelphia?
No one has offered a reasonable answer yet..— dedhed - REALLY? Give it up Howard Bashers. Howard will rebound in a healthy manner for 2013. Will he hit .300? No. Can he hit .260? Yes. Can he knock out 35 HRs? Yes. Can he drive in 120 runs? Yes. Does he make everyone else in the line up better? Absolutley. Did the Phillies play close to .600 ball after his return despite his injury plaqued performance? Yes. Was Reggie Jackson a career .263 hitter and strike out more than 25% of the time during his Hall of Fame career? You betcha. Get over yourselves already.— drhoffman
- i have this straaange understanding of athletics: i believe a player is perhaps 90% responsible for his state of health and wellbeing. pitcher mccarthy gets whacked by a line drive to the head: surely not his fault. most everything else is, rather ought to be, in a player's control, especially in this age of zillion dollar contracts, personal trainers, modern techniques of prevention and maintenance of the physical system. there is NO reason - none - why today's pro athlete sustaining muscle strain, hamstring, ankle, calf, back injuries can claim it ain't my fault. hell it ain't. you're getting 20+ mill a year, you have a responsibility to eat the perfect diet, do a daily program of yoga/stretches, practise some sort of mind control, do a proper (legal) regimen of vitamins/minerals/omega-3/glucosamin stuff. it ain't rocket science. (then again, maybe it is, but the knowledge is there. unfortunately, mid-20th century ways often prevail here in the 21st, especially on this club.)— bubba church & granny hamner
- Players in their 30s WILL get minor injuries as they play everyday for months on end. In 90 degree weather for long periods. Players do not have the luxury of working at their own pace, either. Usually they are reacting to a hit ball, or a pitch thrown at them from anther person...not always low impact. You're a bit harsh. I get the impression you work at a desk, or retired from working at a desk.
— road515 - How many of you armchair GM's would have just ran Amaro out of town had he let Howard walk and then Howard had a big season with another team? It would have been listed as the worst trade ever in Philly history, and each of you would be on here saying how ya'll told everybody so. SHUT UP.................— hawaiiphillyfan
- And further had they signed a Pulos or someone like that, and he started off slow like he did with the Angels, EVERY ONE of you would be, "I told you they should never have paid for that big contract, it's the worst thing the Phillies ever done". Always so much know it all. Hindsight makes you smart. If Howard is tearing it up, then its, "Get this guy locked up at all cost, because I know, I'm the smartest baseball fan on earth"..... And IF the signings the Phillies had over the past off season had worked out, you would be calling RAJ a genius, and you KNEW that he was doing the right thing. Because I never heard someone on here bad talking any of the bad signings Gillick had, because they were winning.— hawaiiphillyfan
- who in their right sick mind would ve given that big turd a 125 million contract,,yes you guess it the other bigger turd— hardball
- Thanks for the great analysis, guys! What the Phillie SHOULD do is spelled out by bigben2009 above. What they WILL do is allow themselves to be pressured into sending #6 back prematurely, thus galvanizing all the anti-Howards out there when he stumbles. Ryan, please get right before coming back, brother!
— dwp66 - Like the idea of Mayberry at first against lefties! Ruf in LF and Brown in right. CF has to be fixed. Frandsen a better bat at third than Galvis, although why not platoon there if we can't get Headley.— ginzo
- I am not a Ryan Howard fan. He is over paid. He cannot field, he cannot run, he cannot throw, he cannot hit for average. Why do we pay him so much? We need to do something to limit his cost to this team. He is an albatross for us.— avogel36
- Flexibility: None. Trade Potential: None. That makes the contract irrelivant because you can't change it and he's not going anywhere. If Howard can't recover, the Phillies are cooked. But at least there's hope he can come back ... unlike with Utley.— TomO
