How to get Hunter Pence production for a third of the price
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How to get Hunter Pence production for a third of the price
David Murphy
There was a lot of head-scratching on Tuesday afternoon when the Phillies traded away Hunter Pence for a package of players headlined by Giants catching prospect Tommy Joseph. In a recent column, esteemed baseball scribe Jayson Stark relays an email he received from a baseball person who wondered, "What the (heck) are the Phillies doing?"
It is a fair question to ask, provided the focus is the totality of their moves over the last few offseasons. The one thing the last few days have shown is that the Phillies' ability to spend on payroll is a serious issue moving forward. Ruben Amaro Jr. consistently deflects questions about his budget, but with a little deductive reasoning, we can get a pretty good idea of the meaning of his maneuvering prior to Tuesday's non-waiver trade deadline. And what I infer is that $189 million is going to be their targeted payroll for the foreseeable future. That is the number of the luxury tax threshold after next season. I infer that they are willing to spend up to that amount next season, meaning they would be subjected to a 17.5 percent tax (an amount that is hardly a deterrent). But they do not seem willing to go over that amount on a consistent basis, as evidenced by the apparent fact-finding mission they conducted with regard to trade interest in veterans like Cliff Lee and Jimmy Rollins. Even the Yankees are trying to get their payroll under $189 million. The new CBA sets up that number as a near-de-facto salary cap, given the penalties for exceeding it multiple seasons in a row.
So, there we have it: $189 million.
As I wrote a couple of days ago, the Pence trade made sense when you considered the cost efficiency of his production when compared to potential replacements. In this instance, I am convinced they did the right thing, as I'll attempt to illustrate in a minute. The real time to ask, "What the (heck) are the Phillies doing?" was last offseason, when they decided to allocate $12.5 million a year to a pitcher who will only log 60 or 70 innings in a season. Or a couple years before that, when they decided to give Ryan Howard a $25 million a year contract extension two years before his existing deal expired, in essence guaranteeing him $164 million over seven seasons through his 36th birthday. When you consider that, the following season, the Red Sox signed Adrian Gonzalez to a seven-year, $154 million extension that runs through his 36th birthday, and that Gonzalez was one year closer to free agency when he signed his deal, it is difficult to argue that the Phillies did not take an unnecessary and potentially crippling financial risk when they handed Howard an extension two years before free agency.
It is even fair to wonder what the Phillies were thinking when they signed Cliff Lee to a five-year, $120 million deal if such a commitment was going to end up being a problem. As far as I can tell, nothing unforeseen has happened since the Phillies made the decision to sign Lee to that deal. They knew Cole Hamels was going to be a free agent. They knew Jimmy Rollins was going to be a free agent and that they would likely have to overpay him because the options for replacing him were so slim. They knew they had already guaranteed Howard significant money. I guess what they didn't know was that Chase Utley would miss five months in 2010 and 2011 because of his knee condition. Still...it is hard to imagine that after only a year-and-a-half the Phillies are suddenly contemplating whether they would be better off without Lee and his salary. Sure, his numbers are down this year. But he was as good as advertised last season. And, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if, at the end of September, his production for 2012 is right where it has been for his career. The guy has always been streaky, and we might be getting set to enter one of his hot streaks. So again, the question: if the Phillies decided Lee was worth all of that money a year-and-a-half ago, how can they now be thinking that he might not be?
Long story short, you can't afford to overpay at every position if you want to maintain a payroll under $190 million. The Phillies are already overpaying at first base, short stop, closer, and starting pitcher. Which is why Hunter Pence is no longer a Phillie.
The Phillies knew there was a possibility that Pence could ask for upwards of $15 million arbitration after the season. Essentially, they could end up paying him as much as a free agent corner outfielder. It just didn't make sense, because Pence is not a $15 million-a-year player, especially not for a team that has a finite amount of payroll space.
In his calendar year with the Phillies, Pence hit .289 with a .357 on base percentage, .486 slugging percentage (.842 OPS) and 28 home runs in 676 plate appearances. Solid production. But not $15 million-a-year production.
Consider what the Phillies could get by pairing newly-acquired right fielder Nate Schierholtz with a right-handed hitting counterpart in a platoon situation. Below are three candidates who will be free agents after the season: Scott Hairston, Jonny Gomes, and Reed Johnson. I took each player's numbers against left-handed pitchers over the last two seasons and added them to Schierholtz's numbers against right-handed pitchers over the last two seasons.
The results:
Hairston/Schierholtz platoon: .286/.341/.486 (.827 OPS), 24 HR, 118 SO, 662 PA
Gomes/Schierholtz platoon: .288/.367/.467 (.834 OPS), 22 HR, 136 SO, 671 PA
Johnson/Schierholtz platoon: .295/.349/.475 (.824 OPS), 18 HR, 114 SO, 639 PA
Now, compare those lines to the one posted by Phillies right fielders this season:
.271/.333/.449 (.783 OPS), 18 HR, 91 SO, 456 PA
They have gotten more home runs (the equivalent of 26 home runs over a 671 plate appearance season), about the same strikeouts, about the same isolated power, and less base-reaching ability.
All three of the hypothetical platoons are making less than $2.5 million combined this season. Schierholtz should be in line for an arbitration raise in the neighborhood of $2.75 million, but a right-handed platoon-type outfielder goes for between $1 million and $1.5 million on the open market (or, at least, it did on last year's open market). How much more does Hunter Pence give a team than the aforementioned platoons? More importantly, is it worth an extra $10 million to $12 million?
Rather than Pence alone, the Phillies would be better off with one of the above situations combined with an extra $10 to $12 million spent on a pair of veteran strikeout arms for the bullpen, or a strikeout arm and a $5 million upgrade in center field (Shane Victorino instead of Rick Ankiel?), or a strikeout arm and a $5 million upgrade at third base (Kevin Youkilis instead of Freddy Galvis?).
The Phillies have made plenty of questionable decisions over the last few seasons. Heck, you can question the return they got for Pence. But the philosophy of the move makes perfect sense, at least now that we know that they have a hard cap on what they can spend.
- My argument against vets (like Wiggington and Nix) is that you know what you are getting in a bad way. They've had their chances and it's clear aren't going to surprise you and turn in to All-Stars. A guy who is a little younger like Schierholtz is a little cheaper and might end up being better than expected.
— jtj06 - The Tonner can live with Mayberry in a STRICT platoon situation but he has proven over the last two seasons he is not an everyday player. How much more does Charlie/Rube need to see?
- Ha ha ha. Ask Cholly and he'll tell ya Platoon was a 1980s Charlie Sheen movie. He is unfamiliar with other uses of the word.— Bobby G
- A strange thing about Howard is that he is a RBI machine but it
just seems he isn't a RBI machine when we NEED a run driven in.
I don't have any proof of what i just said here but i believe this
to be the case. I think it would help the team if Howard could be
traded, maybe DH in AL, and just suck it up and offer to eat some
of his contract. I still believe he hurts up more than his RBIs
indicate.— associate - Is it possible, just possible, that Amaro acquired the players he did to make a run at trading for Chase Headley for third base? They talked with the Padres about him but didn't match up. What if some of the recent acquisitions provide that match? So the Pence trade could yield a starting third baseman. I know, it's a stretch. But what if?— DennyM15
- No matter howwe look at it we need an outfielder, at least 1 (2) relief pitchers and a 3rd basemen I still like Melkey for the out field and there will be a few good relief pitchers out there maybe not studs but pitchers who get the job done when they are needed to get done more times than not. #rd basewill be a tough onebut we need to get one at a good price good fielder and hits of ave with alittle pop.— srcdaddy1216
- The two points I agree with Dave on is the early signing of Howard and the wavering on Lee. Regarding Howard, I still love having the guy, but we should be paying closer to $17-18M a year not $25M. On Lee, its a great point -- they knew the situation they would be in with Hamels and Rollins when they signed Lee -- why all of a sudden is it a bad deal. We should not trade Lee --- once Halliday leaves after next season Lee will be critical to the pitching staff. Also agree with posters saying Scherholtz/Mayberry platoon is even cheaper and provides more cash for center and 3rd base. Mayberry's versitility (very good fielder who can also play 1st base) should not be overlooked. Yes, he is obviously not an everyday player, but that doesnt mean he is not a valuable platoon/bench guy.— Chicago_Phils_Fan
- Good god man, JIMMY ROLLINS IS NOT OVERPAID. Look at the shortstops in the league and try to find more than a few that are better both offensively and defensively. Perhaps he might be overpaid toward the end of the contract, but if you add up the totality of the production the Phillies are likely to receive through the life of that contract it should be, at worst, a market value signing, if not a bit of a bargain.
Hell, he's already out played his contract for this season with a third of the season remaining.— EricL - He's over paid, sure you can argue that he's not by comparing to other short stops, but you could just as easily argue that you wouldn't lose much production and save a lot of $$ if you got a real power hitting 3rd baseman and replaced him with a good defensive journeyman SS that hit's 260 a year and 10 HR's. Problem is they needed to prepare for that reality 3 years ago, but our GM is a NOOB and gets pawned by every agent this side of China.
- In other words, Amaro was short sighted and blew his wad like a fool and now were going to be crippled by it for years. Thanks for stating what I've been commenting for the past two years, your finally catching on. No more championships for you!
- Murph, not saying I think Pence would have been worth keeping at $13 million plus, but your analysis is garbage. You wanted a particular conclusion and picked out your stats in a fashion that would support your conclusion. You looked back 2 years on stats for the other guys. You should have included Pence's time with the Phils last year too. His combined plate appearances over the last 2 years with the Phils are 676 which is in line with the other guys you are looking at. When you do that, Pence's AVG/OBP/SLG line is .289/.357/.486 with an OPS of .843 with 28 HRs. So the guys you pulled out had equivalent combined production, not better. But you choose to only look at Pence's stats this year to make your point look better than it actually is. The reality is that they are probably going to have to platoon at one of the corner OF positions if they expect to sign any kind of decent CF.— JimG
- Dave, this is the best article I've ever read about the Phillies and accurately sums up bobo the clown's MO ie overpay guys (getting kickbacks?), how it will hurt the Phillies for years, and some of the creative ways to get around it (i.e. platoon players). Unfortunately Bobo hasnt changed as he just handed Hamels a windfall and both elmer fudd and bobo are too stupid to do anything, but put overpaid vets out on the field and hope for lots of home runs. Just read what bobo is already saying..."we can bring in 1 or 2 big name players with the money we have available." This idiot will never learn that signing blue chip players to fat contracts isnt getting good value for the money, but it exposes the team to inordinate risks if the player gets hurt or just stinks. Howard would be luck to be getting half of his current contract (and probably much less this year coming off the injury) if it werent for Bobo extending him so early. What is Montgomery's infatuation with that guy?— lazyboy
- As for Howard's contract, it's easy to second guess now. Very few, including this writer who danced around it, criticized at the time when Howard was putting ridiculous numbers. I remember the writer saying time will tell. Duh. Form an opinion and stay with it. It's not going to kill you.— EL Zorro
- Yes, this team needs to gain some salary flexibility so they never find themselves boxed into this corner again; they can only do that by lowering existing salaries. At the same time, they need to start getting younger and having non ML players like Galvis and Martinez on your roster is not how you do it. To be honest, Halladay is no longer a $20 million dollar pitcher and I doubt he ever will be again. A decision needs to be made here; if Pence didn't bring $15 million worth of value, Halladay surely isn't bringing $20 million worth of value. Trading Vic and Pence merely pays for Cole's new contract so there's no great flexibility made by these moves; backs are still against the wall only we're down 2 productive players with no replacements in sight. Will take this team a long time to recover; won't happen in 1 year like the Yankees did recently.— JBinPA
- Amaro is this organization's foster child. His daddy (Sr.) has been a long time employee as a player and coach. Rube Jr. grew up in our clubhouse, was a bat boy, went to Stanford and got his degree, played for us for a few years and was groomed for the front office by many competent people including Gillick. He isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Plus, and this is a big plus, he's a MINORITY at a time when MLB (just like the White House) is trying to set an example that it is no longer the rich old white guys club.
As for Charles....it's clear he isn't a tactician and other tactical managers beat him like an old drum, but he gets players to play for him (usually) until they get fat and complacent. If we get rid of a few more fat and complacent players, he may still be successful here as manager. I know he drives us all crazy with playing his favs, even if they are 0-35, but that's why players like playing for him. He leaves them alone, doesn't pressure them and waits for them to snap out of it. Me, I'm not so patient, but I'm not as impatient as Bruce Bochy either. What frustrates all of us is that on the outside, we can see the problems/deficiencies and we know what has to be done. Whether it's the Eagles needing LBs or the Phils needing to move runners over. It's not always that the FO doesn't see the same things. Their hands are tied by circumstances, contracts, payroll and promises. Only when the season goes down the drain can they pull the plug on those promises. Unfortunately, it's not soon enough for us, the all-knowing fans!— Mark1npt
