Trade of Hunter Pence raises questions about 2013
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Trade of Hunter Pence raises questions about 2013
David Murphy
By all accounts, Tommy Joseph is a solid major league prospect. Whether he was solid enough to warrant the trade of Hunter Pence is debatable. What isn't debatable is that the Phillies are not better off for the 2013 season, at least not in terms of talent in right field.
Joseph, the centerpiece of the trade that sent Hunter Pence and cash to the Giants this afternoon, would not appear to factor into the big league picture for next season. Carlos Ruiz will be back, leaving no room at catcher. Besides, Joseph just turned 21 years old. He has power potential, but in his first year at Double-A he has eight home runs with a .260/.313/.391 line in 335 plate appearances. Seth Rosin, a 23-year-old who is currently at Class A, does not project onto the major league roster in 2013, either. Which reduces this deal, from the vantage point of 2013, to Hunter Pence for Nate Schierholtz and some payroll flexibility. Schierholtz is a better defender with an excellent arm, but the Phillies lose about 30 points in on base percentage and plenty of home run power, not to mention the only right-handed power bat in their lineup.
Over the last two seasons, Schierholtz has posted a .271/.326/.429 line with 14 home runs in 558 plate appearances. By comparison, Jimmy Rollins hit .268/.338/.399 with 16 home runs in 631 plate appearances last season.
Pence, on the other hand, hit .289/.357/.486 with 28 home runs in 676 plate appearances during his year in Philadelphia. So in right field, the Phillies take a step back for 2013. Domonic Brown, who was called up today, is not a relevant consideration, since he could have moved into left field even if Pence had remained with the team.
The relevant factor is payroll flexibility. The Phillies likely would have had to pay Pence between $14 million and $15 million next season. Now, they can theoretically spend that money at one of their two obvious vacancies: center field and third base. The third base market is not pretty -- Kevin Youkilis and Mark Reynolds are the top two options available. Center field offers Michael Bourn, Melky Cabrera, and Shane Victorino.
But strictly in terms of talent, the Phillies do not figure to be as good in right field in 2013 as they would have been had they held onto Pence.
How did Murphy get a job as a sports writer? It is the last day of July 2012 and wow he is writing what 2013 will look like.— flyersj1978- The coach is the most over rated thing in baseball. Why do people think that Melky Cabrera is going to cost less than Shane Victorino? Why would anyone wish that a washed up Youk ends up in Philly? The free agent list for 2013 is pathetic especially considering that they are well into their thirties. Has anyone seen the statistics of over 35 year old players since PED's were tested for? The number of players performing at an above average level at the age has dropped by +60%. You want nothing to do with old players anymore. The Phillies have no way to fix their line-up for 2013 unless they pursue a trade for Lee with the Phillies droppping big $$ on the team who takes him in a trade for prospects ready to be tested at in the Bigs. Very sad indeed.— UncleStosh
- They got Pence last year to win the WS, it didn't happen. They got him for a year (a pretty good second half last year and a good one this year) for 4 prospects that might or might not be good players. One thing was clear, they needed to get younger and they started the process. Too bad, they couldn't move Lee. He'll be as bad a contract as Howard and Rollins. Let's hope some teams call in the Winter asking for him. Not moving Blanton, Pierre and Wigginton was also a puzzle to me. Maybe we can get something during the waiver period for them. I'll give Amaro a C- today. He got two good prospects for Pence and a nice 4 OF and for Victorino a nice young reliever, a prospect and a player to be name later or cash. He wasn't going to get us nothing in compensation. Plus he cleared some payroll for possibles deal in the offseason. However, he couldn't move the other veterans.— EL Zorro
- Didn't Schierholtz go deep twice against us a few weeks back? He has some pop in our little park and made a nice catch in the outfield if I recall. This seems a bit of a wash to me, and a Phils win considering the money Pence would get. We need a third baseman who can hit! Catchers can play third, right?— bobcitydoc
- This team will have to be carried by their starting rotation next year so cross your fingers on Halladay and Lee getting back on track. There's no way they are filling all 3 OF spots and 3B with anything but bargain, economy type guys. Bourn won't come cheap and if they spend more than $10 million on any one of those spots, then they are right back in the same spot again.— JimG
- You and me baby aint nothin but mammels, thats why they traded Pence and Vic just to keep Hammels.....get traden now!!! I dont think this was a good move, but what do i know, this team cant get any worse....can it!!!! Now limit the play of halladay and Lee and bring up some young pitchers and see what they got. Give them a chance like they did Brown so many times!!!— huntnmike3666
- I think all of you geniuses, especially you, David Murphy, need to calm down. There's still time until the waiver trade deadline (up to August 31st), followed by the off season, for this team to correct any flaws that will exist when this season ends. I know management would love to avoid paying the luxury tax, but that doesn't mean that they won't throw caution to the winds if it means securing the players needed to bring this team back to being a playoff and World Series contender. You Johnny-come-latelys have all been spoiled by their recent success starting in 2006. You've either forgotten or don't remember the very lean years between 1981 and 1992 and then from 1994 to 2006 when this team couldn't get out of its own way. So just give it a rest, calm down and back off. Let's give this team the chance to do what it needs to do to correct its problems. Patience, my friends, patience.— mike 1717
- Priority #1 today should have been to get rid of Blanton. Blanton's trade value, such as it is, will never be higher. Priority #2 should have been to get rid of Pence. Pence has been a huge disappointment. He strikes out a lot, doesn't hit with runners on base and can't field. There was no reason to get rid of Victorino. Unlike Pence, Victorino has been sensational since the All-Star Break. Unlike Pence, Victorino can field and run. Unlike Pence, Victorino has performed at a high level in the postseason. Victorino could easily lead the Dodgers to multiple world championships. Why did the Phillies not want to offer Victorino a contract extension? Because they expect to sign Michael Bourn in the offseason? What if the Braves re-sign Michael Bourn? The Phillies could be cellar dwellers for a long time.— Gnip Gnop
- Come on guys, without Pence the Phils would have lost at least five more games. Maybe that doesn't matter, but he couldn't be himself. Without Utley and Howard, he had to shoulder more than he should have. Give him a break. Compare him to Wigginton, and the awful Mayberry -- who is still with the team. Some of you still think the impossible -- that Mayberry will be a productive major leaguer. Pence was a productive major elaguer. Look at his stats, including OF assists.— 2smart4philly
- Maybe Amaro, Jr. can play in the outfield next year. When he is going to be held accountable?— rbhess
- RAJ will load up in the off season. He should be aggressive and get ex- Phil Michael Bourne for CF and David Wright (if he declines his option) for 3B. Bourne leads off, Chase hits second, Wright 3rd, Howard 4th, Ruiz 5th, Brown 6th, LF 7th,Jimmy to the 8 hole, and we are back in business. Dom Brown can be cheap in RF and we will find some bullpen help, we will be ok. Give him credit, he is saving money off the luxury tax this year, but with the dollars going up next year, he will spend- no way the team wants to lose the fan base- no other park fills up like the Bank- and who has the best following in baseball? Us- we buy a lot of jerseys! Hang tight- I believe the Penn Grad has a plan!— jayram
- One can't evaluate this trade in a vacume. RAJ/Monty are maneuvering for the offseason. Trading Pense/Victorino helps get the team under the salary cap luxury tax threshold. These moves were made not only for salary cap relief, but to put the Phillies in a better position to obtain outfield/3B help in the offseason w/o dealing with a 2nd year of luxury tax penalty (it goes up each successive year a team is over that threshold). If each move is judge as a stand alone move, its easy to make a judgement. I know that RAJ will be looking to upgrade the 3B/OF spots. Without the salary flexability, this team would have gotten older faster. Shane is not worth 4+ years as he is looking for. Pense is not worth $15 million, which is what he would most likely command in arbitration. Blanton's bloated salary, Victorino's salary, Penses salary, Schneider, Thome, Qualls, all come off the books w/o threat of taxation or a 2nd year's escalating penalty. I won't pass judgement until I see what RAJ/Monty do in the offseason to make some changes. I do like the bullpen piece from LA as well as their AA starter. As for the Pense move, they get a real prospect behind the plate with great power potential. The moves make the team younger, and allows greater payroll flexibility going into the offseason. Again, until we all see the 2013 roster, please refrain from passing judgement. Management is committed to paying salary and keeping the team competative for the long term. This year's rash of injuries simply could not have been predicted.— drhoffman
- No issues with today's trades. Let's face it, Pence was brought here to win in 2011 period. Amaro must have known he was bankrupting the future by going for it all in 2010 and 2011. Let's blame the players for failing in the playoffs there. Had the Phils won it all last year, we would be much more agreeable to what 2012 has brought. That said, I would love to see Charlie given a well deserved parade through the city and then shown the door - they have to bring Sandberg up before they lose him - Charlie has been great, but the time is now - and the same goes for the rest of the coaching staff.
Maybe we can get Shane back in left field if Amaro can get Bourne this winter...THAT ALL SAID, I WILL ALWAYS BE BITTER THAT WE DID NOT WIN ANOTHER SERIES IN '10 AND ESPECIALLY '11!!!!!!!
— tytler - No issues with today's trades. Let's face it, Pence was brought here to win in 2011 period. Amaro must have known he was bankrupting the future by going for it all in 2010 and 2011. Let's blame the players for failing in the playoffs there. Had the Phils won it all last year, we would be much more agreeable to what 2012 has brought. That said, I would love to see Charlie given a well deserved parade through the city and then shown the door - they have to bring Sandberg up before they lose him - Charlie has been great, but the time is now - and the same goes for the rest of the coaching staff.Maybe we can get Shane back in left field if Amaro can get Bourne this winter...THAT ALL SAID, I WILL ALWAYS BE BITTER THAT WE DID NOT WIN ANOTHER SERIES IN '10 AND ESPECIALLY '11!!!!!!! (HTML deleted)— tytler
