Jerardi: Picking an upset in the Belmont

THE BELMONT STAKES is a unique race, 440 yards longer than the Kentucky Derby, 550 yards longer than the Preakness and run over America's only mile-and-a-half racetrack at Belmont Park. It is also very counterintuitive. One would think a mile-and-a-half race would favor horses coming from far back with the last run. One would be wrong.

The winning trip in the Belmont Stakes typically comes from a horse that is in the vicinity of what is almost always a very slow pace. That pace inhibits the closers, who generally don't have the same late rallies they had at Churchill Downs or Pimlico anyway, because they are starting their runs about the time the first two legs of the Triple Crown finish. They simply don't have the same kick after already running so far.

Saturday's Belmont Stakes - unlike the Preakness, which was almost certainly decided because of the historically fast early pace on a surface that was not yielding fast times - has almost no early speed. This would be a race setup perfect for Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, had he not gotten sick after his gallant third-place effort in the Preakness.

Only two horses (Preakness winner Exaggerator and Japanese horse Lani) have made it all the way through the Triple Crown. Exaggerator will be the heavy favorite, as he should be, coming off stakes wins at four different tracks and by far the best set of speed figures in the race.

Exaggerator is also the most likely winner, but, given his low price, the possibility that the grind might catch up with him and that the pacing will be completely different from the Preakness, I will try to beat the favorite.

In exactly half of 21st-century Belmont Stakes races, the winner ran in the Derby or on Derby weekend, bypassed the Preakness and was running for the first time in five weeks. Five of this race's 13 horses fit that winning pattern. Destin not only fits that pattern, but also should get the dream Belmont trip, as one of the few horses with any early speed.

America's top trainer, Todd Pletcher, is just about hopeless in the Derby, but the Belmont fits his training style much better. Destin, by the great sire Giant's Causeway, finished sixth in the Derby, but I thought he was inhibited early by all the dirt flying into his face from the early cavalry charge. The colt worked his way into the race on the far turn, but just could not keep up in the stretch. I think he ran better than his finish, which was not terrible.

With what should be a very comfortable, close-to-a-slow pace trip, Destin will have every chance to run back to his early-season form when he was an impressive winner of two stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

That Destin trains at Belmont Park, the home track of Pletcher and star jockey Javier Castellano, is a bonus. Destin is listed at 6-1 on the morning line. I would be happy with that.

Governor Malibu was a fast-closing second in the Peter Pan Stakes behind unbeaten Unified. The more I looked at the tape, the more I liked the effort. The improving colt was relentless striding out and nearly won his fourth straight. It is a big jump from New York-bred stakes to New York's most important race, but this colt might very well be good enough.

Stradivari, also trained by Pletcher, could get a similar trip to Destin. I thought the inexperienced colt ran a terrific race, fourth in the Preakness, but that was a really hard race and one not easy to recover from in three weeks.

Closers such as Cherry Wine (second in the Preakness), Suddenbreakingnews (fifth in the Derby), Lani, Brody's Cause and Creator will get interest in the betting windows. One could win, but will do so without me.

Exaggerator obviously could win and maybe even should win. Those four stakes wins, and two seconds in two other graded stakes at two more tracks, are a strong testimony to his quality.

The Belmont Stakes, however, rarely goes to the most accomplished horse anymore. American Pharoah was the exception to all the rules when he finished off his Triple Crown last year. Afleet Alex was just far superior to his peers in 2005. But since 2004, Smarty Jones, Curlin, Big Brown, Animal Kingdom and California Chrome have all been beaten in the Belmont Stakes for one reason or another. So I am looking for an upset with Destin.

@DickJerardi