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American Pharoah on track for Classic swan song

Many experts, including Gary Young, thinks the colt will go out a winner.

LEXINGTON, Ky. - Gary Young has been getting up before dawn for 3 1/2 decades to watch racehorses train. He has seen thousands of workouts and gallops. In a game in which everybody has an opinion, his is among the most respected. He knows what he is looking at and how to interpret it.

A few weeks before the Kentucky Derby, he had this to say about American Pharoah: "I have been doing this for 35 years and he might be the best horse I've ever seen. He's simply like Michael Jordan and stays in the air like he did in his rookie year. He stays in the air longer than any horse and you get the feeling that there's not one gear left, but he may have two, three or four gears."

The opinion turned out to be spot-on, one of the best ever. Young all but said Pharoah was going to win the Triple Crown. He not only said it; he said it with conviction.

Every Tuesday of Derby Week, I go out to dinner at the same Louisville restaurant with the same group of friends. A few years ago, Young joined the group. I try to sit right next to him.

With American Pharoah's final race coming Saturday at Keeneland in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic, a race against by far the strongest group of horses the Triple Crown winner has ever faced, I asked Young about what he has been seeing in the great colt's training at Santa Anita.

For a long time after the Travers, Young was no longer seeing the rookie version of Michael Jordan. He was still seeing a horse with rare talent, but also a horse that had those four races in eight weeks culminating with the tour de force in the Belmont Stakes. The daily pounding of training took a toll. So did the races, no matter how easily they might have looked or how big the margin. Horses, even Triple Crown winners, are not machines.

"I think he deserves to go out a winner," Young said. "That being said, am as I loaded with confidence as I was before the Triple Crown, no, no I'm not."

That was two weeks ago. Tuesday night, Young told me Pharoah had turned a corner and is now back to the horse he loved so much in April. He noticed a huge difference when the horse came out to train Sunday, Oct. 18. And it has just gotten better since then.

"The work (Monday) was unbelievable," Young said. "He is moving much better now. He might be about that same horse I saw back then."

What American Pharoah did this year is unprecedented in modern American racing and not only because he won the first Triple Crown in 37 years. The colt flew more than 20,000 miles, including, by my count, 13 different segments. The Travers at Saratoga when he finally got beat after a heroic effort was one leg too far, one race too many.

No matter that talent, there is a price to pay. American Pharoah paid it on Aug. 29 at Saratoga and was a very tired horse that night. It took trainer Bob Baffert several weeks to rebuild the horse's condition before he could really start to drill him again for the Classic.

"After Saratoga, you could tell it was taking its toll on him, but it took him 30 days to pop back up," Baffert said. "But one thing I've noticed about him is that when I really start really getting after him and start working him, he likes that. He thrives on work."

In horse racing, every skill is an edge. Young has a skill that can't be taught, only learned by observing over time. And if you master it, you are way ahead of the crowd.

What exactly did Young see back in the spring?

"Every leg was where it was supposed to be," he said. "He's a horse when he's in full flight, his action is nearly flawless."

Think Usain Bolt with four legs and a tail.

"I still firmly believe he's the best horse I've seen since Spectacular Bid," Young said.

That would go back to 1979 and 1980.

"Where he would rank with Affirmed, Seattle Slew, the run of good horses in the '70s, is still open for debate," Young said.

The Triple Crown is forever. This Classic is for history.

When Affirmed won his Triple Crown in 1978, the Breeders' Cup was still six years from inception. So Pharoah is the first horse with a chance at what everybody in horse racing is calling the "Grand Slam." If the colt is good enough to beat the great mare Beholder, the brilliant Honor Code, the consistent Tonalist and the rest of the powerful 10-horse field, there will be a unique place in horse racing history for American Pharoah.

That his last race will be at the first Breeders' Cup held at Keeneland, the cozy, idyllic racetrack, right next to legendary Calumet Farm and surrounded by the most concentrated array of high-powered horse farms in the world, is lost on nobody. American Pharoah will start his stallion career next year at nearby Ashford Stud.

First, there is one final race to run. And the heat is on.

"We're never safe," Baffert said. "That's why I have three stents in my heart . . . They're like children. They can get cut or they can do something. We're never safe until we put that saddle on him."

Baffert is starting one horse in the 13 BC races to be run Friday and Saturday.

"I think his legacy has been made," Baffert said. "It's a Pharoah Tour. You get to see him run . . . get close to him."

It won't be easy to say goodbye.

"I just hope I get one more like him in my lifetime," Baffert said.

He won't, of course.

Still, you always want a proper ending. After one final flight east on Tuesday, the Triple Crown winner gets one last chance to demonstrate true greatness.

On Twitter: @DickJerardi