BALTIMORE - If this game were completely predictable, I would just pick Rachel Alexandra in tomorrow's Preakness and forget about it. If, however, it were completely predictable, Smarty Jones would have won the 2004 Belmont Stakes.

What happens during a race is often more important than the relative abilities of the horses in it. Calvin Borel made the intelligent choice when he went with the filly over the Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.

The filly has never lost in five starts with Borel. She has won those starts by a combined 43 1/2 lengths. You will never see a horse win a Grade I race easier than Rachel Alexandra won the Kentucky Oaks. Even the 20 1/4-length margin can't explain how easy it was. It looked like a workout, a really easy workout in very fast time.

And the filly's Beyer figure of 108 was better than Mine That Bird's 105 in the Derby a day later. Whatever you make of Mine That Bird's 50-1 upset, the horse really had to run hard over the final three-eighths of a mile. Unlike the consistently fast filly, Mine That Bird had never shown anything like that before, improving his lifetime best performance by approximately 14 lengths.

So, she is the more likely winner of the Preakness. If this were a match race, it would be a blowout. The filly's speed would dominate. However, 12 other horses will be in the starting gate.

The Preakness issue is simple. How will the filly handle the most pace pressure she has faced in her brilliant career?

Under Borel, she has been running on or near the front. She will have company tomorrow.

Big Drama has finished first in six of seven starts (he was disqualified in the Swale Stakes). More important, the colt is really fast and almost certainly will ensure a very quick pace.

The colt's trainer, David Fawkes, was not pleased late last week when it became obvious the filly would go for the Preakness. Not because she is not deserving of a spot in the starting gate, but because she is so fast, it could hurt Big Drama. It could also hurt Rachel Alexandra.

Please check out the tape of the 2004 Belmont for a review of what can happen when the best horse is subjected to sustained pace pressure.

There is a chance Rachel Alexandra is so good that none of this will matter. She should win the Preakness, but is definitely not a lock.

The second, third and fourth finishers from the Derby are all nice horses, but all fully exposed as a cut below the best. Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man and Papa Clem were in a three-way photo for second, far behind Mine That Bird.

All three colts ran really hard, but the reality is that none of them is all that fast, certainly not fast enough to win a Triple Crown race in a typical year.

Pioneerof the Nile, for instance, has not reached triple figures on the Beyer scale, the typical cutoff for horses that are going to win a Grade I race. His Kentucky Derby number was similar to the number he got in the Santa Anita Derby. That won't do tomorrow.

"I have watched [the replay] 1,000 times by now, those horses on the lead, the horse that run second, third and fourth, they never quit," Mine That Bird trainer Chip Woolley said.

I agree. They did not quit. They are just slow.

It is difficult to pick Mine That Bird for the obvious reasons. No Calvin, no live rail, no mud. The possible hot pace, however, could help. The change in running style might have been why the horse ran so well in Kentucky. Still, you can't miss 50-1 2 weeks ago and take, say, 5-1 tomorrow.

The true believers play at Sunland Park in New Mexico, where Mine That Bird prepped (without winning) for the Derby. Bettors there won more than $180,000 on the Derby. Normally, Sunland has to wire money to Churchill the Monday after the Derby. This year, the money came the other way to cover all the winning bets. It was similar to the Philadelphia Park phenomenon when Smarty Jones won in 2004, except Smarty was the favorite.

"I believe he will fire again," Woolley said, hopefully. "The horse is doing super. He bounced back really quick from the race."

So, if it's not Mine That Bird, the three horses that finished behind him at Churchill Downs or the filly, which horse is it? That is the crux of the problem.

I had planned to pick Big Drama until Rachel Alexandra was entered. I really thought he could dominate the race with his speed. I don't think that anymore.

I don't see Flying Private, General Quarters, Take the Points, Terrain, Luv Gov or Tone It Down.

Which leaves me with Friesan Fire, the horse I picked in the Derby, the same horse that finished 18th in the Derby, 42 1/2 lengths behind Mine That Bird.

Forget the finish and think about the start. The colt's foot was stepped on at the break. The start cost him position, got him in the midst of the early traffic jam and eliminated any chance for the colt to get comfortable.

Once you get past the preps of long-gone Quality Road and I Want Revenge, I really thought Friesan Fire's last two races in Louisiana were the most impressive of 2009. I know this colt is far better than his Derby finish. Rider Gabriel Saez did the smart thing in the stretch, easing his horse the final quarter-mile when he had no chance to hit the board. So the margin is misleading.

I really liked Friesan Fire in the Derby. I think I have some sense of why he ran so poorly. Still, I possibly can't be as confident in the Preakness.

So, here is my play. I think the filly is the most likely winner. And I think I will be playing some tickets with her and Friesan Fire, as well as some tickets with Friesan Fire and something else, just in case the pace gets to the favorite. *

Send e-mail to jerardd@phillynews.com.