First: Big Brown (20) - Sure, the post could prove troublesome, if not disastrous, but this colt won his first three starts by a combined 29 lengths (similar to the great Curlin) and overcame a supposedly impossible outside post in the Florida Derby, winning by five lengths. Few trainers are as hot as Rick Dutrow, and jockey Kent Desormeaux was terrific at Gulfstream and has ridden two Derby winners. Taking a relatively short price to win seems unwise, so the exacta angle seems more reasonable.

Second: Pyro (9) - He made progress this season winning a pair of stakes at the Fair Grounds before failing on the synthetic Polytrack surface at Keeneland; an outing that should be ignored because of a return to the dirt footing at Churchill Downs. Should the early fractions be especially fast - and if Big Brown is used too hard early - the stretch scenario could work in his favor.

Third: Colonel John (10) - I loved the manner in which he ran the final quarter-mile in his Santa Anita Derby victory, and he closed a late gap with impressive determination. But all of his efforts have been contested over synthetic footing in California. He worked very quickly at Churchill on Sunday, suggesting an affinity for the course, but workouts are overrated before the Derby and also the rest of the year. Do you recall Hard Spun's "too fast" workout last year prior to his excellent effort as the Derby runner-up?

Fourth: Cool Coal Man (1) - After taking four of five attempts around two turns, he too was dull at Keeneland in the meaningless prep called the Blue Grass. The rail is considered a difficult berth in this bulky field, but he could get lucky, and jockey Julien Leparoux is having an excellent meeting once again at Churchill.

Fifth: Tale of Ekati (2) - He hinted at regaining his excellent juvenile form when he captured the Wood Memorial with a dream trip. This is just his third start following a long layoff, and trainer Barclay Tagg saddled Derby winner Funny Cide in 2003. But he has yet to be successful outside of New York.

Craig Donnelly's Wagers

$20 exacta: Big Brown (20) over Pyro (9)

$20 exacta: Big Brown (20) over Colonel John (10)

$10 exacta: Big Brown (20) over Cool Coal Man (1)

$10 exacta: Big Brown (20) over Tale of Ekati (2)

$10 exacta box: Big Brown (20) with Pyro (9) and Colonel John (10) ($60).

Total bets $120