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That's why the connections for two horses who got their start at Delaware Park were near the front. Michael Matz, the trainer of 20-1 Visionaire, is back at the Derby for the first time since winning with Barbaro in 2006. There would be no bigger story than Matz's winning the 134th Run for the Roses.
Just across the way were the owner and trainer of 20-1 Eight Belles, the first filly in nine years to enter the Derby, trying to become just the fourth filly to beat the boys at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
However, the news was made by the favorite. Big Brown trainer Rick Dutrow didn't have much luck yesterday morning when lots were drawn to determine the order that the trainers would pick their gate for the 20-horse field. Big Brown had 16th pick at the draw, which meant Dutrow could go inside to the No. 1 or 2 gate or way outside to No. 18, 19 or 20.
Dutrow surprised everybody by going way outside, all the way out, taking post No. 20.
Maybe Dutrow wants to show that he's got a horse for the ages, one that can overcome any obstacle. The only horse ever to win from the 19th or 20th position was Clyde Van Dusen in 1929, who won from Gate 20.
"I think he's going to have to be much the best to win from out there," said Derby morning-line oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, who still made Big Brown the 3-1 favorite, explaining that he thinks the horse will still get the most betting support even though he has raced only three times - winning by at least five lengths each time.
As expected, Battaglia made Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John the 4-1 second choice, although that colt, who will start out of the No. 10 gate, comes with his own questions, since he has never raced on dirt because California tracks switched to artificial surfaces before this year. Since shipping here, Colonel John worked well over the Churchill surface, and his sire, Tiznow, was comfortable on the dirt, winning $6,427,830 in 15 races.
Dutrow said he didn't have much interest in starting from the No. 1 or 2 gates - Curlin started at No. 2 last year and quickly ran into traffic problems, falling back to 13th after a quarter of a mile before getting up for third place behind Street Sense and Hard Spun. Curlin later won the Preakness and the Breeders' Cup Classic and was voted horse of the year.
Most trainers drawing outside gates do try to get as inside as possible, but Dutrow didn't go that way, deciding that at least his colt isn't between two others. The trainer has shown supreme confidence in his horse.
"It might be too far outside, but we're willing to accept that challenge," Dutrow said.
Since every horse in the field has some real question marks, only three were given morning-line odds of better than 15-1. Pyro received 6-1 odds despite finishing 10th in his last Derby prep, the Blue Grass Stakes. Many handicappers threw that race out entirely when trying to figure out how the Derby might develop.
One race within the race will be run before the first turn, since the real early-speed horses are outside, starting with Bob Black Jack in the No. 13 gate. Presumably, the colt and Illinois Derby winner Recapturetheglory (No. 18) and Arkansas Derby winner Gayego (No. 20) will all try to get up toward the front with Big Brown - but they all won't make it. Being left wide is usually a reason horses fade by the end of the 1ast quarter mile.
A fast pace would leave a better chance for closers like Pyro and Visionaire, who will start from the same No. 8 gate where Barbaro began for Matz two years ago.
Eight Belles would have been the 5-2 morning-line favorite in tomorrow's Oaks, where she was also entered. The only way she would have gone in the Oaks was if she had a real outside gate in the Derby, since she hasn't broken well out of the gate several times.
Owner Rick Porter talked about how trainer Larry Jones - who still has the Oaks favorite in Proud Spell - wasn't sure some weeks about going to the Derby with Eight Belles, who has never raced against colts and never raced longer than a mile and a sixteenth. But her speed figures have stacked up well against the boys and Jones said she was training better than ever.
"Believe me, I've got a real sense of ease the last two or three weeks about this," said Jones, who trained Hard Spun, another Porter-owned horse, to second in last year's Derby. "I know it doesn't look like the thing to do on paper, having the Oaks favorite scratching out so you can be 20-1 in the Derby. But we've got all the signs we were asking for."
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