Tiger Woods is obvious pick but not the only one

THE DAILY NEWS COVERS THE OPEN: Check out PhillyDailyNews.com's U.S. Open page for our guide to the tournament at Merion.

OK, SO HOW many people are going to pick Tiger Woods to win the first U.S. Open held at Merion since 1981?

Probably about as many as chose him to win the Masters in April. Which was obviously, well, a bunch. So how did that work out? I mean, it has been 5 years since he won any major. And he's played in 15 since then. And there were more than a few in which the best golfer of this or maybe another generation was considered the favorite, despite the drought. Or maybe because of it. If you keep going with him enough, one of these times you have to be right. Well don't you?

Three of Tiger's 14 major wins have come at U.S. Opens. Yet he's only won one of the last nine he has played in. He also has a handful of top sixes, including a pair of runner-ups. Last June he tied for 21st at the Olympic Club, after being tied for the lead at the halfway point. The weekends have recently been a problem at other majors as well. He hasn't led one going into the final round since the 2009 PGA Championship at Hazeltine. That was also the only time in 15 tries that he failed to win when he did (thanks to Y.E. Yang).

It happens.

Tiger, of course, has four PGA Tour wins in eight starts this season (to go with three in 2012), including his second Players Championship (and first in 12 years), which is almost a major. Only one other player, Matt Kuchar, has won twice in 2013. So what's that mean? Probably that Tiger's the guy to beat. Other than that, you could still just as easily have a Lucas Glover or Geoff Ogilvy go home with the trophy. That's how this stuff often works.

For what it's worth, Tiger hasn't won an Open at a private facility. His wins have come at Pebble Beach, Bethpage Black and Torrey Pines. And only two of his major wins were on par 70s, in case you need another reason to perhaps not like his chances.

But there is a rumor that at least some of the other usual suspects are going to show up and give it a shot. Former No. 1 Rory McIlroy, who has dropped to No. 2 in the world pecking order, has won two of the last seven majors, including the PGA 10 months ago. He also lapped the field at the 2011 Open at Congressional. So there is that. But he hasn't won this year. And much of the time he hasn't been a factor. So feel free to make your own assessment.

Phil Mickelson has been second on a record five occasions (one more than Sam Snead). He will celebrate his 43rd birthday on Sunday. Ted Ray (1920), Raymond Floyd (1986) and Hale Irwin (1990) all won when they were that old. But Lefty has always been about risk-reward. That's not necessarily what you need at Merion. It would be a great story, albeit the second-best in the field. That's been the story of his era.

Jim Furyk - who was born in West Chester, grew up in the Lancaster area and hosted a 1-day charity tournament at several different venues in the Philly suburbs for a decade - has a game that's made for this major. He won in 2003 at Olympia Fields and could've won in 2006 at Winged Foot (the one that Mickelson also gave away), 2007 at Oakmont and last year at Olympic. Each time he made too many mistakes on the final nine. At least he knows how to put himself in position, although he's also 43.

So is Ernie Els, who won this way back in 1994 and '97. He's had five top 10s since then, including a third in 2010 and a ninth last year. A month later he won the British Open that Adam Scott lost, 10 years after his last major win (also at the British). And he uses a long putter, which seems to be what major winners do these days.

Speaking of Scott, he just became the first Australian to win the Masters, which also took him off that list of best players to have never won a major. He hasn't finished higher than 15th in this one (last year), but has missed the cut six times. With Woods' former caddie Steve Williams on his bag, Scott hasn't been out of the top 15 in his last six majors. Still, very few folks not named Tiger have won back-to-back majors lately.

It seems like Lee Westwood has played in 1,000 majors. Like Colin Montgomerie, he's had chances. He finished third in this one in 2008 and 2011, and 10th a year ago. No Englishman has won our Open since 1970, but six of the last nine winners weren't Americans. Two of his countrymen, Justin Rose and Luke Donald, are also trophyless in these Grand-Slam things. Rose has missed the cut in three of his last five U.S. Opens, Donald three of the last six (with one withdrawal).

Webb Simpson is the defending champ. Since 1951, only Curtis Strange (1988-89) has repeated. Brandt Snedeker didn't play last year, but has a ninth (2008), eighth ('10) and 11th ('11). And he did make runs at last July's British Open and the Masters 2 months ago. He also won the 2003 Amateur Public Links at South Jersey's Blue Heron Pines East, a course that no longer exists. Edoardo Molinari won the 2005 U.S. Amateur at Merion, but he didn't qualify. His brother Francesco, who has played in two Ryder Cups, did. If nothing else he'll probably get some decent advice.

Kuchar made the cut in just one of the dozen majors he played in from 2002-09. Since then he's been in 13 more. Of the 11 times he's played the full 72 holes he hasn't finished lower than 27th. He also has five top 10s, including an eighth at Augusta in the last one. His best Open was a sixth in 2010. He's the only fellow other than Woods who has won more than once this year. His second victory came 2 weeks ago at the Memorial. But how many guys not named Tiger win a major after winning their last start?

Louis Oosthuizen has won a British Open and nearly added a green jacket in the last 3 years. But he's missed the cut in two of his three U.S. Opens (to go with a ninth in 2011).

In the last decade 25 men have won their first major. Of those, only four (Mickelson, McIlroy, Angel Cabrera and Padraig Harrington) have won another. So calculate that into your prognostications.

Maybe the best thing to do is pull a Jim Murray. At the 1990 U.S. Open at Medinah (the first one I covered), the late great sports writer for the Los Angeles Times was asked to pick a winner by USA Today. So he went with journeyman Mike Donald. He's the only one that did. Donald would lose in a 19-hole playoff to Hale Irwin, the only time in 16 majors that he'd finish in the top 30.

Sometimes, your guess makes as much sense as any.

So is Roy McAvoy in the field?