Advice to Flyers: don't change aggressive style
Winning in a shot-blocking era.
Advice to Flyers: don't change aggressive style
Rich Hofmann, Daily News Sports Columnist
It has been more than a week now since the Flyers were eliminated by the New Jersey Devils. Somewhere, coach Peter Laviolette and his staff, along with general manager Paul Holmgren, are going about the annual ritual of assessment and reassessment after you lose -- what went right, what went wrong, what needs to be fixed, what needs to be tweaked. It happens every spring -- and in the Flyers’ case, 37 springs and counting.
Their analysis does not take place in a vacuum. Teams are still playing. There is a game every night on television, and there is a narrative that is being sold and told and re-told. It is about blocked shots. The New York Rangers are the leading practitioner of the art, and they are in the conference final -- tied at one game apiece with the Devils.
Compared to 5 years ago, playoff shot-blocking is up about 10 percent. That is a real number. The Rangers already have blocked 309 shots in 16 playoff games. The Washington Capitals blocked 308 shots in 14 games. The leader in the 2006-07 playoffs was Ottawa, which blocked 310 shots in 20 games. So, yes, this is happening.
Some of it is better equipment, which makes players more fearless. More of it is tactical. The NHL, like all pro sports, is full of copycats -- and if the Rangers were to win the Stanley Cup, the notion of shot-blocking-as-secret-formula would be debated in every one of the league’s outposts.
The short answer, for Holmgren and Laviolette, is to resist the conversation.
The formula, for the Flyers, is to giddy-up and go.
That is not to say that shot-blocking is meaningless. There are times when it matters a lot, such as the night of Game 6 in the first round when the Flyers did, in fact, build a wall in front of goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov and eliminate the Pittsburgh Penguins. In general, though, it is not the metric that matters the most for a team that is best when it is skating aggressively and asking questions later.
True Fact I: The Flyers blocked more shots than the Penguins did in the first round (116-81) and won the series in six games.
True Fact II: The Flyers blocked more shots than the Devils did in the second round (77-65) and lost the series in five games.
Against the Devils, the Flyers were out-blocked -- is that even a term? -- in Game 1 and won anyway. Then they out-blocked the Devils in Games 2, 3 and 4 and lost each time.
Shot-blocking is not the reason the Flyers are currently spectating instead of playing. They had plenty of blocked shots. What they didn’t have enough of against the Devils was shots.
It wasn’t shot-blocking. It wasn’t the goaltender. It was the Flyers’ inability to sustain a forecheck and to prevent the Devils from sustaining theirs. It was about an imbalance in time of possession in the offensive zone. It was about not getting enough shots against a 40-year-old goaltender who looked gettable at many points during the series.
If you want to argue that the young-and-overconfident Flyers took a big punch from the Devils in Game 2 of the series and never recovered, there is plenty of evidence to support that theory. If you want to say that the obviously-injured defensemen, Kimmo Timonen and Nicklas Grossman, were not at the top of their games, it is a fair comment.
None of that is about shot-blocking, though. None of that is about style of play. The truth is that the Flyers won games when they skated and possessed the puck and they lost games when they didn’t. In the five games against the Devils, when you compare total shot attempts -- shots, blocked shots and missed shots -- and use that as a proxy for effective possession of the puck, this is what you come up with:
The team with the most shot attempts won every game. The Flyers’ advantage in Game 1 was 71-47 and they looked great after a slow first period. Their deficit in Game 2 was 70-37 and they looked godawful. In Game 3, the Devils won in overtime and had the 59-46 advantage. Game 4, it was 64-33 and more lopsided. In Game 5, a much more competitive game, the Devils led by 60-55.
The Flyers do not need to re-make themselves. They need to learn to sustain their effort, and to hope for (or acquire) healthier defensemen. And for the sake of everyone who likes the game, and who likes speed, and who likes offense, they need to remain the kind of team that values skating most of all.
Nobody ever fell in love with a blocked shot, after all.
You decide: Flyers Stay or Go
@ MacD - then explain why the same exact thing happened against Boston last year with a completely different team?
Two different sets of forward groups, same outcome. How could that be?— Dangler9- Good article.— n62
- I would love to go back 2 years ( when we were in the finals) and closer to the cup then we are now. We got rid of 2 All Star forwards because they were your typical young players who liked to party and have a good time. That didnt fit in with Lavvys way of doing things . Now we have some young forwards with POTENTIAL?? and a Goalie who stinks and we are locked into for the next decade...we are further from the cup with many more question marks then we had 2 years ago. Very poor job by the whole organization ......How can an organization leave itself with absolutely zero top quality defenseman which is what we have now. please dont use th Pronger injury excuse we all know he was not playing great and has been injury prone even before his concussion..He has too many miles on his body thats why we were able to get him in the first place...— flyers1000
- Rich....Grossmann is a shot-block leader in the NHL...and we signed him for an extension.— Romus
- I am wondering, with a healthy Pronger and Mezaros, playing a combined 45 Min TOI per game, would we still be talking about the Flyers in the past tense now!— Romus
- Romus...Pronger hasnt been healthy the last 2 years and it was unrealistic to expect him to play 25 minutes a game and to stay healthy..too many miles on that body and Mezaros is just a journeyman defensemen...guys like him are a dime a dozen...If your system fails you because you lose 1 defenseman ( Pronger ) who means anything then their is something wrong with the system and the team structure. Look at the Rangers they played 1/2 the Season without their all star d man Staal.... and the 2nd half he was a shell of himself recovering from the concussion...didnt stop them because they had depth and goaltending— flyers1000
What tears me up more than anything is Carter getting a "hat trick" the other night. He always was "hurt" or taking a day off when he played for the Flyers, especially during the playoffs. Richards looks pretty good in the playoffs, but I still don't think he would have made a difference if he was kept on the team.— dogman5- It is rather strange to see Mike Richards (who I am pulling for) and Carter (who I don't care for) one game away from a Stanley Cup final appearance.
But all things considered, I think the Flyers got the best part of the respective trades.
Anybody but the Rangers.— backhand - FWIW. Claude Giroux still leads all playoff scorers with 17 point while Danny Briere has only slipped to fourth. Giroux still leads in goals with 8, tied with Danny Briere. Giroux also leads in assists with 9, while Jakub Vorachek only slipped to a five-way tie for second place with 8 assists.
Gee, if we had a goalie...— backhand - Good defense always shuts down a good offense. The answer is not more shots- it's tighter D. If you look at the 4 teams remaining (well, 3.5 if you count how the Kings practically have it locked up) they are all playing strong defense. Lavi needs to work on defense more instead of firing all cannons at once. It makes little sense to shoot away when we give up so many odd man rushes and we don't have a stud goalie to stop goals.— Fly Guy
- So why doesn't Rich ask why the Flyer's D under Laviolette is perennially "beat-up" come playoff time? It's become a broken record. Is it just dumb luck, or is it the system? How often have we seen a Flyer forward arriving late into the defensive zone, sometimes after shots on goal have occurred? Do the Flyer forwards just not skate fast enough...or is it because the entire team is conditioned to over-commit in the attack zone? Different players with the same result and the same problems points to the only guy left to be changed: the coach. And this time, how about an assistant who knows defense for a change. What was Berube ever good at in his career besides bad penalties and fisticuffs?— icarus
- Agreed Nitro- All Snider has done is financially support one of the great franchises in the league. The Flyers will have the top payroll in the league next year. Hopefully Darth Bettman will install Amnesty Clause in the new CBA , the Flyers dump Bryz and go after some decent Dmen.— Mike Boryla
- And while we're at it, why is the discussion, Rich, even about blocking shots? Here's some numbers that tell a different story: through the end of their humiliating 5-game series with Jersey, Philly had amassed an astonishing 41 goals. Meanwhile, LA is just one win away from the finals and they have needed 4 less (37) to get there. Philly's goal differential with the Pens was a mere +4. Overall, LA's goal dif. is +20, while Philly - despite its offensive onslaught - faded from the picture with a dismal overall goal dif. of -3. "Defense wins hockey games" might be a cliche, but its about time Philly finds a coach who knows more than just half the game.— icarus
- Some fans are revolting on the idea that the Flyers gave away their best talent in Richards and Carter. The lapse was not getting Gagne back (thus having to settle for Jagr, who served as a great "spiritual adviser," if you will).
Here's my thinking: the Western Conference is weaker than the Eastern Conference. In football terms, it's like the EC is the AL East while the West is the AL Central. The competition isn't as fierce and the fans aren't as fanatical. Bryz's poor transition to Philly is an indication of this. I don't think, if the Kings played in the Eastern Division (geographically impossible), that they would have had the same level of success going up against the Penguins, Bruins, Rangers, Devils, Caps, and, yes, the Flyers.
Holmgren made some gutsy, but brilliant moves. Bryz was a mishap. I'm sure if people knew how good Holtby turned out to be in the clutch, the Flyers would have loved to traded for him.
I like the blocked shots stat--less pressure on the goalie and it messes with the players' mindset and is a nice momentum killer, because the shot suddenly isn't even close--it's stopped prematurely, and fans groan.
That's why getting Grossman was brilliant. Kubina, not so much, but they were short on defenders. I really hope they make a strong move for Weber.— pillsbury - Trade Snider for a bag of pucks.— stonelamb
