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Flyers unlikely to win tonight's NHL lottery

Odds are, Flyers will remain at No. 7 in the draft lottery, which takes place tonight.

THE FUTURE of one of 14 NHL franchises will change with the drop of four pingpong balls tonight in Toronto.

The Flyers just aren't holding their breath.

In fact, the Flyers are not sending a representative to see the draft lottery be conducted, even though Connor McDavid is hockey's first runaway consensus No. 1 pick since Steven Stamkos in 2008.

The draw will be announced as part of a "Hockey Night in Canada" broadcast, simulcast live on NBC, at 8 o'clock immediately preceding Game 2 of the Penguins/Rangers series.

With a 24th-place finish, the Flyers have a 6.5 percent shot at No. 1 overall.

"Wouldn't that be sweet," general manager Ron Hextall said on Wednesday.

McDavid, 18, commonly referred to as "The Next One," compiled a staggering 120 points in only 47 regular-season games for the OHL's Erie Otters. He posted 14 points in a four-game second-round sweep of the London Knights last week.

"He's the type of player that only comes around every 15 to 20 years, if you're lucky," Jake Voracek said. "Obviously, if we get first overall, it's going to be good. If you miss the playoffs, it's the next best thing to win the lottery."

The odds, of course, aren't in the Flyers' favor. This year, they are better than they would've been with a similar finish last year. The NHL changed the lottery structure for this season, increasing the chances for teams toward the bottom of the lottery. Under last year's allocation, the Flyers would have had a 4.7 percent shot.

Chicago won the 2007 draft lottery - even though the Flyers finished in 30th place that season with a franchise-worst 56 points - with only an 8.1 percent chance at Patrick Kane.

Buffalo, Arizona, Edmonton, Toronto, Carolina and New Jersey all have better odds than the Flyers, who have a 70.5 percent chance to remain at No. 7 and a 23 percent chance to slide back one pick to No. 8.

Fourteen balls, numbered 1 to 14, will be placed in a lottery machine. The machine will randomly select four balls. The resulting four-number series (without regard to order) will be matched against a chart that shows all possible combinations and the team to which each is assigned.

Unfortunately, the Flyers cannot move up to No. 2 overall, where Boston University's Jack Eichel will be a solid consolation prize for the Sabres, should they not win the lottery. Buffalo cannot slide further than No. 2.

Other than 2007, when the Flyers picked James van Riemsdyk at No. 2, this will be the highest the Flyers have drafted with their own pick since 1992 (Ryan Sittler, No. 7).

In 2002, the Flyers traded with Tampa Bay (Ruslan Fedotenko) to grab defenseman Joni Pitkanen at fourth overall. In 2011, the Flyers made a deal with Columbus (Jeff Carter) to select Sean Couturier at No. 8.

The Flyers' average first selection in 48 drafts has come at 22nd overall.

If the Flyers remain at No. 7 or No. 8, they figure to take a forward if they perceive the talent level to be equal among the available prospects. Scott Laughton and Nick Cousins are perhaps the organization's only NHL-ready forward prospects.

Mathew Barzal (Seattle, WHL), Mitch Marner (London, OHL), Pavel Zacha (Sarnia, OHL), Lawson Crouse (Kingston, OHL), Nick Merkley (Kelowna, WHL), Kyle Connor (Youngstown, USHL) and Jansen Harkins (Prince George, WHL) figure to be on the board for the Flyers in that range.

For at least the next few hours, the Flyers and 13 other teams can dream about the instant impact of McDavid next season. Anything can happen.

"Well, obviously it would be huge," Hextall said. "What do they say, prepare for the worst and hope for the best? That's where I'm at. It would be great."

Blog: ph.ly/FrequentFlyers