Philly Daily News writers split on Flyers-Devils predictions

THE FACT that the Flyers beat the Devils in five of the six meetings in the regular season should not be easily dismissed. But Jersey's advantage between the pipes is more significant.

Marty Brodeur, 38 next month, posted the second-most wins of his career with 45. Brian Boucher, his counterpart with the Flyers, has performed admirably in relief of Ray Emery and Michael Leighton, but this isn't 2000. If it were, the pick would be Devils in 7. Instead . . .

Devils in 5.

Normally, I like the team with the Hall of Fame goalie, Stanley Cup-winning coach, and defense-minded approach.

Especially when it's facing a team that can't seem to get out of its own way, playing its third-string goalie, in a season in which one coach was replaced by another and team chemistry was an issue.

And yet . . . Martin Brodeur has played like Olympic Marty against the Flyers for whatever reason. The Devils are one of the few playoff teams whose lack of offensive punch can mask some of the Flyers' characteristic giveaways. That 5-1 record, especially given a few of the onesided scores, is no illusion. A season that ended with the second seed and eighth seed separated by 10 victories will provide some surprises. This will be one.

Flyers in 6.

There are plenty of reasons why the Flyers should beat the Devils four times. They've done it five of six times already; goalie Brian Boucher is playing passably well; they have a better power play; the defense has been sharp.

There are more reasons why the Flyers won't win. The Devils won their division for the second straight season because they're the best team in it; they've beaten the Flyers in two of three playoff series; they will play more games in Newark (the Flyers were 3-0 vs. the Devils at home); and, in front of Martin Brodeur, they allowed the fewest goals in the NHL – a death knell for the offense-hampered Flyers.

Devils in 5.

The custom at this time of year is to fixate on the goaltenders. With Flyers-Devils, though, that's not where I'm going. By the time the series ends, I really believe that there will be little to choose between Brian Boucher and Martin Brodeur. I think both will be good, not great. In the case of Boucher, there is every reason to believe that he will give the Flyers a predictable level of performance upon which they can build.

I really think the Flyers' real problem is with scoring balance. Simply put, they have not shown enough of it this season. Jeff Carter has had so many more shots and legitimate scoring chances than anyone else that it isn't close - and he's playing on a still-mending foot. In the playoffs, you look for secondary scoring, for hero-of-the-night kind of guys, because both familiarity and desperation tend to give defenses a chance to lock down on the obvious scoring threats. The Devils have many more guys like that - and guys with significant championship experience, as well.

Devils in 6.

You did not need to peruse Vegas Vic's odds to know that the Flyers are a decided underdog in this series against New Jersey. The Devils are the second seed, and it has been 4 years since a seven seed pulled off the upset, when Colorado knocked off Dallas in 2006. That year, the Avalanche had beaten Dallas only once in four tries during the regular season.

A lot has been made of the Flyers' 5-1 regular-season record against New Jersey, and rightfully so. This season was the first since 1988-89 that the Flyers topped the Devils five times in a single season. They have scored 19 goals in six games against the Devils - including five goals three times - this season, chasing Marty Brodeur out of the net twice. That says something, considering the Devils and their trademark stingy defense have allowed fewer goals (191) this season than any team in the league - by a longshot.

It was exactly the matchup the Flyers would have picked - as if they had any choice in the matter, just squeaking into the playoffs on Sunday.

Historically, the Meadowlands, Continential Airlines Arena, et al. - and even the Prudential Center when it opened in 2007 - were houses of horror for the Flyers. It took them three seasons to get a win in New Jersey, against a divisional opponent. It isn't anymore. The Flyers had their first winning season (2-1-0) on the road against New Jersey since 2001-02.

The Devils, who haven't advanced past the first round since 2007, knew their record against the Flyers going into Sunday's finale against Buffalo. They could have tanked, handing the Flyers and the second seed to Buffalo. But they didn't. They have publicly questioned their lack of confidence against the Flyers. And as much as the Flyers have downplayed the regular-season results, they know they can compete in this first-round matchup.

The Flyers absolutely need to win one of these first two games in Newark, preferably the first to further the Devils' doubt in this matchup. If not, it will be a quick but painful death - a temporary detour to the country club. But I'm betting otherwise.

Flyers in 6. *