NFL draft gurus gone wild

JOBS THAT didn't exist 40 years ago, or if they did, hardly anyone knew it:

Barista.

Social media coordinator.

Yoga instructor.

NFL draft expert.

That last one was pretty much invented by one big-haired guy in the early 1980s, in terms of the general public's consciousness, anyway, and for a while, his was a lonely, relatively thankless existence.

"Who the hell is Mel Kiper?" then-Indianapolis Colts general manager Bill Tobin famously thundered during the 1994 draft, after hearing ESPN's draft expert question his selection of linebacker Trev Alberts fifth overall, over quarterback Trent Dilfer. (Alberts indeed turned out to be an infamous bust, but Tobin's logic, that he preferred to go with Jim Harbaugh over Dilfer as his quarterback, wasn't completely crazy.)

Tobin was objecting to the idea that someone outside the fraternity - someone who had never played, coached or scouted in the league - would dare to so harshly deride his draft decision.

"Mel Kiper has no more credentials to do what he's doing than my neighbor, and my neighbor's a postman," Tobin complained.

Twenty-one years later, as the massive NFL hype machine churns toward the April 30 start of the now-three-day draft extravaganza, the Internet and social media allow us all to be Mel Kiper, or at least to have access to dozens of would-be Kipers. Today's NFL execs are no doubt aware of the breadth and depth of the scrutiny they face on every selection, but no one even bothers to rail against it anymore; that horse not only has left the barn, he has tapped out a seven-round mock draft for every team in the NFC South with his hooves.

Every autumn, many thousands of people watch obscure college games, despite having no rooting interest, to check out players their favorite NFL teams might draft. Any fan who wants to can watch "film" (at least on YouTube), much like the scouts. Senior Bowl practices are televised on the NFL Network. You can track every shuffle through the cones at the Scouting Combine. Many college pro days are streamed online.

We're not at the point yet where fans can do their own medical tests on prospects or conduct private-eye-type investigations of potential character issues, but surely that technology is pending.

"When I came into this business, there were maybe two people doing it, three people doing it," Kiper recalled this week on a conference call with reporters. "Now there's about a thousand people doing it. That's great for the industry. It's great for me, to see it grow from 1978 to now, the way it has.

"It's beyond what I thought it would be, but I certainly had high hopes that the draft would be something that would be a major entity from a viewership standpoint. How huge it is right now? I'd be lying if I said it didn't surprise me a bit."

Kiper said he doesn't have any trouble picking his way through the more cluttered draft landscape.

"Everybody has an opinion, and they have a right to that opinion, and they have opportunities with the Internet now to provide that opinion . . . there's a lot of avenues out there to get your information out," he said.

Mike Mayock is the top draft analyst at the NFL Network. He has only been sifting through prospects since the network was born in 2004, Mayock said this week, but he marvels at the change in the status of the draft even during that time.

"I'm constantly amazed at the interest in all things draft-related," Mayock said. "How can the draft generate higher ratings than a playoff hoop or hockey game? I think it reflects the passion that football fans have for our national pastime - the new draft class represents hope for the passionate local fan and entices the fantasy player. It also attracts the college fan, as they want to see where their favorite players end up. It's a true crossover experience."

There was a time when the opening of baseball season dominated April. Certainly, that rite of spring remains a cultural touchstone, and the early rounds of the NBA and NHL playoffs draw their audiences. But for a lot of sports fans, particularly fans of college sports, the draft seems to fill a seasonal void.

"What else are you doing?" Kiper asked. "You've got NBA playoffs, you've got hockey, but come on - football's king. With that being the case, they haven't seen football since early February. It's great to spend a weekend or spend some time watching all the highlights and getting all the interviews and getting everything that's going to basically tell you who's going to be good and not so good come September."

Last year, an estimated 45.7 million people watched the draft over the three days of coverage on the NFL Network, ESPN and ESPN2. That broke the record set in 2010. The first round, on the NFL Network and ESPN, attracted 32 million viewers, up 28 percent over 2013. Day 2 was up 8 percent, Day 3 17 percent.

Mayock agreed there is a lot more "noise" around the draft than there used to be, but he said he blocks it out pretty easily.

"I watch tape and talk with guys I trust and respect around the league," he said. "The number of draft analysts doesn't even register to me."

Kiper noted that when he began tracking prospects as a student in the '70s, before first selling his draft guide in 1981, with the help of then-Baltimore Colts general manager Ernie Accorsi, "there was a lot of blood sweat and tears - you really had to pay your dues back in those days."

In an interview a few years ago, Kiper said, "People weren't able to see a lot of these players in the '70s and '80s. You couldn't see players; nobody watched players. I'd go to two games every Saturday in person, call schools and try to get tape, try to get film. I had a big satellite dish on the roof because I wanted to see as many football games as I could. You had to work hard; you had to do a lot of research to find out tackles for lost yardage."

This year, Pro Football Focus, a website that uses fan input to track a wide range of arcane stats, debuted College Football Focus, which it promised would track "results from our 20,000-hour, 870-game, every play & player analysis of the 2014 season."

Did you know, say, that Miami of Ohio wideout David Frazier caught 59 passes last season with just one drop? You do now. Or at least, you know that's what CFF's numbers say. Before you start tweeting your friends about finding a diamond in the rough, though, Frazier's 4.82 40 on his pro day might be an equally important number.

Wondering why the Eagles are said to be very interested in Penn State safety Adrian Amos, widely considered a midround prospect? CFF says he was targeted 39 times last season and allowed college football's lowest passer rating-against, 13.0. Safeties in the Eagles' scheme have to cover.

There are facets of scouting that are incredibly esoteric - can you really watch a few YouTube clips and discern whether a receiver is quite good or just middling at using his hands to shuck press coverage? Can you evaluate his body lean coming in and out of breaks? But the raw information gap between people who watch football for a living and people who pay to watch it is shrinking fast.

Download some video, plump up your pompadour and get to work.

Blog: ph.ly/Eagletarian