A few thoughts on Kareem Hunt and the Eagles roster | David Murphy

Doug Pederson said something today that made me think of something that I thought of yesterday when Jeffrey Lurie was saying something that I wrote about in today's Inquirer and Daily News.

Pederson said that one of the players the Eagles had their eyes on entering this year's draft was Toledo running back Kareem Hunt, who was most recently seen scoring three touchdowns and eclipsing 200 yards from scrimmage in the Chiefs' impressive win over the Patriots in Thursday night's NFL season opener. The Chiefs drafted Hunt with the 86th overall pick, meaning he wasn't on the board when the Eagles' turn came up in the third round at No. 99 overall, where they selected Rasul Douglas.

Hunt was, however, on the board at No. 78, which is where the Eagles would have been drafting had they not acquired defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan from the Ravens. In return for Jernigan, the Eagles agreed to swap third-round picks with Baltimore, essentially moving down from No. 78, where they could have drafted Hunt, to No. 99, where they ended up drafting Douglas.

Before we go any further, I want to stress that all this is meant as a purely theoretical exercise. I am in no way suggesting that:

1) Kareem Hunt's big debut proves he will have a long and fulfilling NFL career.

2) Rasul Douglas will turn out to be less of an NFL player than Kareem Hunt.

3) The Eagles liked Kareem Hunt better than they liked Rasul Douglas.

Rather, my point is to take a look at a real-world situation that shows why Lurie's full-throated endorsement of Howie Roseman's decision-making over the last year and a half is far too premature. As a reminder, Lurie commended his general manager for making "remarkable franchise-changing decisions," saying that, ever since the Eagles traded up to draft Carson Wentz, "it's been one domino after another in terms of smart moves." He added that he was "really happy with the additions this off-season, as was last off-season."

"When you look back on the last couple years," he said, "very impressive performance."

Thing is, roster construction isn't that simple. And unless the Eagles are satisfied with 7-9 and no playoffs, we don't have nearly enough information to know whether the path Roseman has charted is a viable one.

Take Jernigan. Even if we assume that he will be the player the Eagles think he is, there's no way we can evaluate the decision to acquire him before we get a better idea of just how much he cost. Remember, the Eagles have Jernigan for only this season. After that, he will be a free agent, which will put them in the same situation where they were last year, when Bennie Logan was in his final season before free agency. Logan signed a one-year contract for $8 million with the Chiefs and was in the middle of a defense that had a couple of key short-yardage stands against the Patriots on Thursday.

Rather than re-signing Logan, the Eagles traded for Jernigan. At the time, the deal was easy to praise, because the Eagles got a real-live player at a position of need in exchange for a nameless, faceless pick. But now that No. 99 and No. 78 are real live players with real live skill sets, the trade-off is a little easier to conceptualize.

Essentially, the Eagles acquired one year of Jernigan and four years of Douglas for four years of Kareem Hunt. Douglas does not figure to play a major role in the defense this year, and he remains a project long-term. There's a lot to like about him. But Hunt is more of a sure thing, both short term and long term, albeit at a less premium position.

This isn't about Hunt vs. Douglas, though. It's about the chain of events that led to one being on the roster and one not.

Think back to February 2016, about a month after Roseman made his triumphant return. The Eagles signed Vinny Curry to a big-time contract extension that this year will pay him among the top defensive ends in the game, with a cap charge of $9.5 million.

The Eagles get Curry/Jernigan/Douglas for a combined price tag of about $11 million. The Chiefs get Logan/Hunt for a combined price tag of about $8.5 million, a difference of about $2.5 million, which they could theoretically use to sign a defensive end if they need one. We don't know who made out better yet. We do know that the evaluation is more complicated than "Is Timmy Jernigan a good player?"

Same goes for Alshon Jeffery. As most Eagles fans did, Lurie liked the signing. But the wisdom of this signing will be judged not just by the production the Eagles get from Jeffery, but also by the production the Eagles could have gotten elsewhere for the same or less money, and by the production of the players elsewhere on the roster who are where they are in part because the Eagles spent $9.5 million on Jeffery instead of elsewhere.

For instance, look at the table below and ask yourself if the Eagles would be better with the players on the left, or on the right. So, if they'd signed Terrelle Pryor instead of Jeffery, and re-signed Logan instead of trading for Jernigan, etc.

Here's another one to consider, left or right:

Here's one more. Let's get really complicated:

Again, there's an argument to be made that the left column is the optimal column. But the last table is a pretty good indication of how silly it is to give the Eagles off-season a pre-emptive stamp of approval. And this isn't just about 2017. In trading for cornerback Ronald Darby, they acquired a guy who is under contract for two years for a second-round draft pick who would have been under contract for four. In trading for Logan, they acquired the No. 99 draft-eligible college football player instead of the No. 78 draft-eligible college football player. This, after they traded away multiple picks for Wentz.

It's going to be a lot of fun seeing how it all plays out. But it most definitely has yet to play out.