Eagles' defense can bend but not break

THE EAGLES' defense was tied for third in the NFL in takeaways last year with 31. Those takeaways, along with more of a pass rush from Trent Cole, turned a disastrous defense into a serviceable defense by the end of the season. They rescued a defense that just couldn't get off of the field, and they did it time and again.

The Eagles played it safe in the secondary, choosing to keep everything in front of them - as much as they could, anyway - and take away the big plays. The Eagles themselves might not have called it bend-but-don't-break, but that was the reality most weeks. And in the end, it was the takeaways that prevented so many of the potential breaks.

But here is the problem:

Takeaways aren't very predictable.

And here is the likelihood:

This team is still going to win with offense.

When you look at the defense, the biggest concerns going into the offseason were 1) the pass rush, and 2) the safeties. Based upon what we saw in the exhibition games, the safeties appear to be improved, both with the addition of Malcolm Jenkins and the development of Nate Allen. You don't know until you know, of course, but it looks better.

Take that, and now throw in the arrival of cornerback Nolan Carroll II, which should allow the Eagles to play a dime defense for the first time when the situation calls for it. All of this is good.

But the pass rush was the No. 1 concern, and it remains the No. 1 concern. Again, you don't know until you know, but the exhibition games offered little comfort for those in the business of predicting. The starters did not generate a ton of pressure. First-round draft choice Marcus Smith II appears ready to give them very little at the start. It was all very quiet.

On the plus side, Vinny Curry seems to have cemented a key spot in many of the Eagles' nickel configurations because he did have a very active summer (even if Curry is the guy who doesn't really fit into the scheme). Also, longshot Brandon Bair has commanded attention. And maybe Trent Cole gets hot again for a while, as he did at the end of last year. And maybe Smith develops.

But if you had to guess, you probably won't be calling the pass rush a team strength by the end of the season. Given everything, there is a pretty good chance that the Eagles will be bending again, bending and trying not to break, bending and hoping for those big takeaways at key moments.

But will they get those takeaways again?

Recent NFL history suggests that there is a healthy bit of randomness in the takeaway stats from season to season. If you go back to 2004 and look at the teams that were in the top quarter of the NFL in takeaways, you indeed find a few that have done it consistently. Seattle is on a streak of three straight seasons in the top quarter. The New York Jets had a streak of four straight seasons from 2008-11.

In general, though, teams fall in and out of that top quarter from season to season. Only 35 percent of the teams were able to repeat in the top quarter in at least two consecutive years. About two-thirds, then, said a quick hello and then a quick goodbye.

So what will the Eagles say?

Hello? Goodbye?

Given all of that, there is a chance that even with the defensive improvements in the secondary, the Eagles' offense could still be stressed even more than it was last season. It was an offense that played faster than any team in the NFL has in decades, but it also was an offense that didn't get enough opportunities because the defense just couldn't get off of the field.

There are people who argue it the other way - that the offense played too fast and put the defense back on the field too quickly. That undoubtedly happened occasionally. But the problem was a defense that couldn't get off of the field, and it wasn't about fatigue.

In the first six drives of games last year, the Eagles' defense was on the field for an average of 6.0 plays, 32.9 yards and 2:51 time of possession. After that - when fatigue should have been an issue if the offense really was putting the defense in too many bad spots with quick drives - the drives averaged 5.9 plays, 29.2 yards and 2:33.

The main issue - the defense's inability to get off of the field - was actually a touch worse at the beginning of games. That was true even though the Eagles' offense was a little more deliberate in those initial six drives (2:15 average time of possession) than it was thereafter (1:55).

You can't pin it on the offense's tempo. There is no reason the offense should play slower. If anything, it should go faster - and with most of the pieces having a year of experience, it should be able to go faster. It is the defense's job to keep up.

But will it? The guess here is that it will be similar to last season. The guess here is that, in 2014, Chip Kelly's offense will have no choice but to shoulder the load.

Blog: philly.com/DNL