What to expect from the Eagles' run game
What kind of leap will LeSean McCoy make in his second year in the Eagles' offense? Will the Birds run the ball more with Donovan McNabb gone? A look at those questions and projections for 2010.
What to expect from the Eagles' run game
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
Today, we take a look at expectations for Eagles running backs LeSean McCoy, Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver.
As I continue to digest the Eagles chapter in the 2010 Football Outsiders Almanac, different nuggets have caught my attention.
One of the main items has to do with the running backs and Weaver. You thought Weaver had a great 2009 season. I thought Weaver had a great 2009 season. And by pretty much all accounts, he did. The Eagles were obviously pleased with his performance, rewarding Weaver with a three-year deal this offseason.
But consider this stat. When the Eagles ran the ball out of a single-back formation last year, they averaged 5.2 yards per carry. When they ran the ball with two backs, they averaged just 3.1 yards per carry.
How do you explain the discrepancy? An obvious factor is that teams are not as likely to expect a run when the Eagles go with just one back. But if you look at the numbers, it's not that simple. When the Eagles went with two running backs, they called a running play 40 percent of the time, the second-lowest percentage in the league out of those formations. They were still more likely to pass with two running backs on the field, so it's not really accurate to say that defenses could key on the run in those situations.
Per the FOA's findings, the Eagles lined up with just one running back on 67 percent of their offensive plays, the seventh-highest percentage in the league. And they ran the ball 41 percent of the time on first down - the second-lowest mark in the league.
As we continue to analyze the numbers from 2009 and look ahead to 2010, the obvious questions are: How will McCoy handle an increased workload? What kind of impact will Bell have? And should Weaver touch the ball more?
Here's what the FOA projects:
| Att. | Yds. | YPC | Rec. | Yds. | YPR | |
| McCoy | 167 | 723 | 4.3 | 48 | 441 | 9.2 |
| Bell | 71 | 297 | 4.2 | 4 | 12 | 3.0 |
| Weaver | 60 | 259 | 4.4 | 25 | 210 | 8.4 |
The projections suggest McCoy won't make much of a leap as a runner. He had 155 carries for 637 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per carry as a rookie.
The one encouraging part about McCoy's projected performance is that last column: 9.2 yards per reception. I took a look at that number back in May. McCoy averaged 7.7 yards per catch last season. The more explosive backs in the league averaged a higher number. Ray Rice was at 9.0. Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson were at 10.1. If McCoy can average 9.2 yards per catch, he'll almost certainly establish himself as one of the five best receiving backs in the league. And he'll show he's more of a big-play threat than he was in 2009.
The total number of projected attempts by the three backs is 298. Below is a chart of attempts, yards and yards per carry by Eagles running backs over the past three seasons. Note that these numbers do not include runs by the quarterbacks or wide receivers.
| Year | Att. | Yds. | YPC |
| 2009 | 301 | 1,278 | 4.25 |
| 2008 | 357 | 1,446 | 4.05 |
| 2007 | 355 | 1,680 | 4.73 |
As you can see, the number of attempts by running backs went down pretty significantly last year. The projected number of 298 includes only McCoy, Bell and Weaver. But it's unlikely that whichever running back(s) play behind them get more than 10 carries or so.
The projections suggest Andy Reid, Marty Mornhinweg and company will be no more likely to hand the ball off this year than they've been in previous years. And I would probably agree with that, although that number could certainly get back up to the 350s as in 2007 and 2008.
One other link to pass along concerning the running backs. ProFootballFocus.com measured the elusiveness of the league's running backs in 2009. Click on the link for a detailed explanation, but for our purposes, it's based on a couple main factors: forced missed tackles and yards after contact.
McCoy ranked just 40th in their Elusive Rating. Bell ranked second-to-last in the entire league. And Brian Westbrook ranked third-to-last. Westbrook ranked very low in yards gained after contact. Just under 46 percent of his yards came after contact. Only two running backs had worse percentages.
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the Eagles have a running back?... 11 years without a super bowl, lets hope andy changes his very predictable pass-happy ways this year!— Fire Andy Reid- Yeah, they will run more just for the sake of running, but it will increase by 3%-5% just to say they run more. Andy is still way of touch with the running game and how it relates to controlling and changing tempo. Andy just doesn't get it, unless "it" is good tasting food.— Voytas
- Sheil you pretty much answered your own question midway through the column. If the Eagles went to a 1RB set the seventh-highest percentage in the league, and ran on 1st down the second-fewest % in the league... then it would seem they got big chunks of yardage whenever they ran the ball out of a one-back set on first down, which obviously no defense is expecting against a Reid/Morningweg team. I imagine they also churned out lots of yards from those 1RB sets on draw plays on 3rd and long... As for your 2back doesn't = run theory, that may be true simply because of how much Reid and Marty love play action, but you also have to factor in when it's 3rd and 1, you're most likely in a 2back set to either get the 1 yard, or even if you go play action, you still want to make the defense think you're running so you're more likely to line up with two backs
- i really think these stats mean nothing now that D-Mac and Westbrook are gone. In my mind this should be a totally different offense and I don't think anyone can predict what is going to happen this year. If Kolb fits in well with the WC offense and can sustain drives and be successful then I expect games to be closer or have an Eagles lead and we will see more running. If Kolb is a bust then Reid will force things even more and look for quick scoring, PASS PASS PASS. Let's hope for success.— therev
- And FWIW, the Bears took Harvey Unga in the seventh round of Thursday's supplemental draft. I didn't expect the Eagles to get Unga, but I sure didn't expect the Bears to add another RB either.— paolibulldog
- Same headcoach and off coord, same plays,same poor clock mngment, same scripted 15 plays to start a game, and the same struggling offensive line...add to the the mix an UNPROVEN QB that is light in the britches. I'm sorry but I fail to see where I should be excited or expect anything different. If I gave you a 1974 Ford Pinto hatchback right now b/c it drove/handled like crappola when I drove it, do you honestly think it would drive/handle any better w/you behind the wheel? I rest my case...QB play hasn't been the problem the last few seasons. Coaching,defense and offensive line play have been.— somertonspartan
I always get confused with all these micro-projections and breakdowns; when this person runs on this down, when that team passes on this one, etc. Too much info for my brain to process...Unless Shady really explodes this season, Mike Bell should exceed the FOA projections for this upcoming season. He did have 650 yds rushing last season, and actually had 20 catches out the backfield his rookie year. Not staggering numbers, but not too shabby for the #2 RB.- Hahahahahahahahahhahahaha, hahahahahahahahahha. What to expect? DISMAY!— mccloudmj
- spartan - "QB play hasn't been the problem"?? really? Yes coaching has done a lot of things poorly but you can't say there have been no problems at QB! I am huge McNabb fan, but he did not fit into the system that Reid tried to run. That is why Reid is not a great coach. He had a system in plan and tried to make the players fit into that system instead of vice versa. Yes, Kolb is UNPROVEN, but in theory, he fits into the system perfectly.— therev
I don't know about everyone else, but I feel I can predict every time when the Eagles are going to run or pass. Granted, I have missed like 2 games in the entire Andy Reid era but if I can figure it out I am sure other teams can figure it out.
Justice and Cole, as first year starters last season, did pretty well. The experience can only help them this year. Peters and Andrews are solid pros who now have a year in the system under their belt. Those of you who think this is a rebuilding year might be surprised to look back and see that the true rebuilding year was last season on offense with 6 new starters( Macklin, Celek, Peters, Andrews, McCoy and Weaver). McNabb test drove it and they scored in bunches. This season the defense gets an injection of new blood (Tapp, Sims, Allen, Graham, etc)that has been overdue. They also now have the league's best special teams coach and a veteran coach to help the defense (April and Jauron). They need Hobbs, Hansen, Harris or Lindley to seize the open job at CB. So this year, unlike last year's hugh uncertainty, has four spots available to a new starter: center until Jackson can play, safety (they are counting on Allen here), CB (see above) and DE (Parker, Tapp, Graham) opposite Cole. They have lots of good candidates to fill them with IMO. Why all the doom and gloom?
A lot of attempted rushing depends on how well a team is doing, right? If you're behind in games, you throw the ball . . . if you're ahead, you RUN out the clock. Just sayin' other variables are in play beyond rushes per game.— Leegles- Leegles, the Eagles run out the clock by passing the ball!!
- Andy does not have more than 2 running plays in his play book. When the first one is stopped, he throws the run play book out.— tulsaphil
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