What is Celek's ceiling?
Eagles tight end Brent Celek broke out during his third season with the Eagles. What are fair expectations for 2010? And does he really have a chance to be the best tight end in modern franchise history?
What is Celek's ceiling?
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
At this time last year, the Eagles' tight-end situation was considered a question mark.
L.J. Smith was let go after six seasons here. And the Eagles did not select a tight end in the draft until the fifth round when they picked up Cornelius Ingram.
That meant the Eagles were going into the 2009 season with Brent Celek in the starting lineup. A fifth-round pick in 2007, Celek was coming off a 2008 campaign where he started seven games and totaled 27 catches for 318 yards (not including a strong showing in the postseason).
All Celek did in his first full season as a starter was pile up 76 catches for 971 yards and eight touchdowns, while averaging 12.8 yards per catch.
At 24 years old, he's now turned the Eagles' tight end situation from question mark to pretty much a sure thing.
I wanted to take a closer look at Celek's receiving performance in '09 to see how it compared to some of the game's elite tight ends.
First, the numbers. Here are the top 10 tight ends in terms of receiving yards last season:
| Rec. | Yds. | YPC | TDs | Plays of 20+ | |
| Antonio Gates | 79 | 1,157 | 14.6 | 8 | 18 |
| Dallas Clark | 100 | 1,106 | 11.1 | 10 | 11 |
| Jason Witten | 94 | 1,030 | 11.0 | 2 | 11 |
| Brent Celek | 76 | 971 | 12.8 | 8 | 16 |
| Vernon Davis | 78 | 965 | 12.4 | 13 | 13 |
| Kellen Winslow | 77 | 884 | 11.5 | 5 | 5 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 83 | 867 | 10.4 | 6 | 4 |
| Zach Miller | 66 | 805 | 12.2 | 3 | 9 |
| Heath Miller | 76 | 789 | 10.4 | 6 | 8 |
| JerMichael Finley | 55 | 676 | 12.3 | 5 | 9 |
I chose the categories I did to show that Celek is not the kind of tight end you might remember growing up, or even the kind of tight end we saw earlier in the Andy Reid era. He's a big-play threat. Among the top 10 tight ends, only Gates averaged more yards per catch. Celek's eight touchdowns were tied for third in the NFC and fourth overall among tight ends.
And he had 16 catches of 20 yards or more. Think about that. On average, you could count on Celek to make a play of at least 20 yards once a game during the regular season. What a luxury to be able to get that type of big-play production from the tight end. Only Gates had more (18) plays of 20 yards or more.
In terms of yards after the catch, I found some conflicting stats. According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Celek averaged 6.0 yards after the catch, which put him at second among tight ends who had at least 50 receptions (behind Gates).
But according to Yahoo Sports, Celek averaged 5.1 yards after the catch.
The other aspect I wanted to look at was Celek's third-year numbers compared to third-year numbers of some of the other tight ends mentioned above. Here's how those stack up:
| Rec. | Yds. | YPC | TDs | |
| Brent Celek | 76 | 971 | 12.8 | 8 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 76 | 849 | 11.2 | 11 |
| Antonio Gates | 89 | 1,101 | 12.4 | 10 |
| Jason Witten | 66 | 757 | 11.5 | 6 |
| Dallas Clark | 37 | 488 | 13.2 | 4 |
Not bad, huh? More yards than Gonzalez in his third season. A higher average per catch than Gates. More receptions than Witten.
And keep in mind that Celek had only 11 starts under his belt going into his third season. Gonzalez had 16; Gates 26; Witten 22; and Clark 23.
So what's the point of all this? To show just how impressive Celek's growth has been. Celek, the Birds' personnel staff and the coaches deserve a lot of credit for that.
The Eagles were wise to lock him up to an eight-year, $34M deal last season. Granted, he's only done it for one year, and he has to stay healthy and continue to improve, but it's not a stretch to suggest that Celek could finish his career as the best tight end in modern (Super Bowl era) Eagles history.
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One stat that all great tight ends have is catches for first down on third downs. The eagles have not been consistent on short third downs. Perhaps with Kolb things will get better and the Eagles can have longer drives. Should be an interesting year, but if they get more than 8 wins I'll be shocked.— airbuzz- Mofo stud... It will be interesting when the ball comes to his hands in stride vs. hard into his chest... not saying one is better than the other for a te... but it is a question. it might be his best season or his worst.— iggles48
- o, and i see alot of people sayin celek is a punk and he aint tough...yall all gotta be kiddin,look at the saints game,it looked like he ran right through about three of their defenders(linebacker,safety and cb)...he looked like a grown man playin with kids out there.WHO COMPARES TO HIM AS FAR AS TOUGHNESS GOES?!— stef0731
- celek should lead us in catches with maclin right behind him.i dont think alot of team can stop him from doin whatever he want over the middle...basically with avant to help him with that and jackson making big plays down the field,our offense should be fun to watch(and dont sleep on the defense)— stef0731
Comment removed.- Sheil, Why didn't you go back to game tape and actually count his yac yards for each catch and then do the math. Anyone can go to Wikipedia or stats.com. If there's conflicting stats why don't you un-conflict them. I liked Celek his rookie year, always reminded me of a better Chad Lewis. So none of this talk is new to me but he still has a long way to go. I'll be waiting for those actual YAC yards Sheil.— mundiff
- Actually it was a 6 year extension with 2 years left on his current deal. There's no way he'll be happy with his paycheck in another 2 years.— balitok
- Murrayag, yep we look like a sitting duck for good passing teams. If the offense doesn't pan out, it doesn't look good.— tacklinjoe
- Celek if healthy will be a cornerstone of this team for a very long time. He has improved every season and will continue to do so. But, once Defense will be the issue with this team. The weaknesses at the Corner and Safety positions are just ridiculous in such a pass happy league. I do not believe they will be able to generate enough pressure on the QB to counter that weakness.— Murrayag11
- QB who gets the ball down field successfully opens things underneath for the TE to not only get receptions but get yards after the catch ... QB who can't gets the TE receptions but no yards ... sorry, didn't know I needed to explain, I'll type slower for you ...— AsValidAsYours
- Actually,he should have better numbers with Kolb. In Kolb's 2 starts last year Celek did better than his averages. Granted it was only 2 games, but Kolbs quick release and the additional experience on the young receivers will only improve Celek's game.— watsonmr
- Brent did very well last year because KK was in there for 2 games, remember?, and that is also how KK throw 2 ints because he was only looking for Brent, I wish #5 was still here, well Brent will have to do more blocking because KK has no speed or ability to escape, thanks andy— will69
- mccloudmj: What I'm actually picturing is the end of that play, where one of the OL's is frantically waiving in the trainer as Kolb lies motionless, crunched between two unblocked defenders!— jimmyj
- He got all those catches because the QB cant throw the ball downfield?? guess those TEs that also got a lot of catches has a weak armed QB passing them the ball also. Right??— feps
- He will have as many receptions, but, because McNabbs not throwing the pass ,he won't get numbers as good as last year????? What? Was McNabb blocking for him downfield!!?? And he is no Witten et.al.???? No hes not. He just has better numbers in the games!! Celek is at least in the top 3 Tight Ends in the NFL , AND, he has lots of time to grow. If your an Eagles fan, count your blessings !— feps
- OK, picture this. Ingram at tight end, Celek lines up at H-back. Comes out of the backfield on a swing route as Ingram flies down the seam, clearing out the zone. Options 2 and 3: Celek can either stay in to block for KK, or circle out as a safety valve.— mccloudmj
- craig123: Nope, not at all. No one has ever accused Celek of being a good blocker. In fact the Eagles have never started a quality blocking tight end for long in the Reid era. Not a priority, just like linebacking.— jimmyj
- Celek will probably get a lot of catches, the TE always does when the QB can't get the ball down field ...— AsValidAsYours
- If he's stays healthy he will have outplayed his contract within the next 2 seasons. I wonder how the birds are going to treat him then.— jaydlaw
- because kolb is a short yardage passer and not a long ball qb the number of receptions for celek will increase. but the only way to keep the yardage the same or better than last year is for him to really push for the extra YAC. i think he will step it up and continue to produce big numbers. actually i think things will be better as the eagles will start going back to basics - quick short passes, use up the clock, march downfield and score while wearing down the opposing defense. mcnabb era was focused on big plays downfield. you cant win ball games that way. lets get back to good solid football and not novelty plays. go eagles.
- Celek is doing a great job. Silly to worry about his individual stats in coming season. Offense was pass-happy rodeo in 2009. I'd be pleased if Eagles ran a bit more and used Celek as blocker. Balanced offense, better red zone and better short yardage performance are 2010 requirements. Celek, Ingram, Riley and Avant might thrive with shorter pass game and better planned red zone plays.— Smashmouth
- very nice article. at least someone is thinking outside the box over there. Lots to like about Celek this year with Kobb throwing a more accurate ball with better placement for yards after the catch.— phillydopes
- Yep, nice numbers and a great player. AND at this time last year EVERONE was crying the blue's as how the Eagles were weak at tightend. Also (you missed it Bleue) he blocks VERY well. KK has a lot of weapons to work with but the key is still the O-Line. If Andrews plays well (I think he will) and who ever the fill in is for Jackson plays well, this offense will be solid. KK should keep them on the field longer than Donovan did and give the defense a little break. Time of posession, O-Line and defensive improvement are the three keys to this season.— craig123
- And we shipped the guy who passed him all those balls to Washington...I am confused!!— Bigbadrookie
- He's going to have to do more to help Kolb from getting killed this year.— jimmyj
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- 1/2 the YAC's were gained on broken tackles. I love Celeks refusal to go down easily. That alone makes his ceiling pretty high. Nobody has mentioned how much better his blocking has become. He's solid, it's his backups that worries me
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- Hey Celek, watch your kornhole.— Kornholio Kolb
guessing L.J. Smith has a drop ceiling...— bboybeballin- his numbers were high because of mcnabb? Kolb will throw more to receivers? Celek's season high in receptions came in both of Kolb's starts: 8 rec 104 yds 1td, 8 rec 104 yds 0tds. 208 of his 971 yards came from kolb— victorygallop1998
- It's not hard to project that Celek's YPC might have been higher if the majority of balls thrown to him weren't behind him or at his shoe tops.— Eddieboy
O.K. O.K. I got a little carried away with that last post. Great minds? ehhhh, let's just go with goofy minds share similar rationalizations...- My man, HolmyDan! What can I say, great minds think alike. By the way, haven't seen any Phillies game day chats the last couple of days. Couldn't you yield your influence on philly.com and do something about that?...Anyways, like Mabus pointed out, don't sleep on Ingram. If he is recovered from his injury, then the Eagles could have two Pro Bowl caliber TE's on their roster. Cornelius Ingram is my sleeper on the offensive side of the ball this year.
Dang Reality Speaks....you already did the schtick I was going to do.- People always talk about McNabb throwing the ball into the ground, but if there was 1 guy that he hit in stride more than the others, or right in the chest on curls and comebacks, it was Celek. Granted, Brent did run a lot of people over last year for extra YAC and some of those numbers were the result of solely his effort, but #5 did give him a lot of balls to work with. If the WR's are so in tune with KK this year, Celek's numbers will probably drop, and if he wants to be the best, he needs to improve his blocking and become a 6th ol out there when he does it. Overall, he won't duplicate it this year, but will be crucial at times and overall still progress into one of the finer NFC TE's.— Bleue
- Celek has done a nice job, and his stats are good. But he's no Jason Witten. Or Gonzalez, Clark, or Gates. I'm glad Celek is an Eagle. Right now, I'd call him the Trent Cole of tight ends, and aren't they both 5th rounders out of Cincinnati?— tacklinjoe
- i am ok with YPC and rec going down if with #4 at the helm the YAC's go up across the board, to me that puts more of a stress on a D then low percentage 20 yards + plays— xlGmanlx
- I just hope to hell that he doesn't wind up staring at his ceiling from a hospital bed!.....And that goes double for his back-up.— TBear
- Here is how it will go: 1) Celek will be the #1 receiver with the most catches 2) Maclin will have the 2nd most catches 3) Desean will have fewer catches than Maclin but he will have a bigger yards per catch average 4) Avant will be 4th in catches 5) Shady 5th in catches.— soulman386
- Hmmm, what is Celek's ceiling? Is it, a cathedral?...Or did he go with the dome ceiling look?
Sheil you have quickly become my favorite DN / INQ sports writer. Short on hyperbole, bluster, rumermongering, and s***-stirring. Long on facts, data, and In-Depth Analysis. Many of the philly old timers could take a lesson or two from your work. Keep up the good work!— soybot
celek is talented but is a punk..he is no witten who is class..wolf out.— wolf 4- Yahoo says 12.8 yds per catch, 5.1 YAC— aubrey_mcclendon
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- The reason these numbers are so high is because of the explosiveness of the offense with McNabb. I think all these numbers drop with Kolb except for receptions probably stay the same.— Bex
- Wow, I knew he had a solid season last year, but those are some impressive stats. It seems like the league is really running short on explosive, play-making TE's these days, so having a tool like that is a serious asset. It also could create a nice comfort option for Kolb - big K's Dallas Clark.— 3-hit shutout
If he stays healthy and Ingram lives up to his potential (and also doesn't blow his knee out again) the Eagles could be set at TE for years to come.— Mabus- Nice article Sheil!!— Quick82
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