Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Projecting success for Kolb

A simple rule using three criteria projects NFL success for Kevin Kolb. However, the same rule would have projected failure for Donovan McNabb.

Projecting success for Kolb

The Rule of 26-27-60 predicts NFL success for Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb. (Laurence Kesterson / Staff Photographer)
The Rule of 26-27-60 predicts NFL success for Eagles quarterback Kevin Kolb. (Laurence Kesterson / Staff Photographer)

Reader Gregg B. passed along a link to an SI.com article about a simple formula for predicting success for quarterback prospects.

It's called The Rule of 26-27-60, and it focuses on the following three things: Wonderlic score (26), number of games started (27) and college completion percentage (60).

John P. Lopez of SI.com argues that if a college quarterback prospect reaches those three markers, chances are he will be successful.

QBs like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers all passed the test.

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QBs like Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington and Akili Smith did not.

So the obvious question is: What about Kevin Kolb?

Kolb scored a 28 on his Wonderlic, started 50 games in college (including Bowl games) and completed 62 percent of his passes. So yes, according to the formula, he is on the right path to NFL success.

However, as Lopez admits, there are exceptions, including (you guessed it) Donovan McNabb.

You know the story well. Five quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the 1999 draft. Had the Eagles taken any of the other four (Tim Couch, who went first; Akili Smith; Daunte Culpepper; or Cade McNown), who knows where the franchise would have been the past decade. But they ended up with the right guy - McNabb.

So it's good that they didn't follow this rule. McNabb only passed one of the three criteria. He started 49 games in college. But he scored a reported 14 on his Wonderlic and completed 58.4 percent of his pass attempts.

Other quarterbacks like Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco did not meet the three marks either.

As was pointed out by Bill Barnwell on Twitter, David Lewin of Football Outsiders wrote about this phenomenon a couple years ago, but he did not include the Wonderlic in his criteria - just college completion percentage and number of starts.

Other links:

* ESPN.com's Matt Mosley discusses McNabb's Hall of Fame credentials:

I think McNabb will always be appreciated more by the national media more than the folks in Philly. Every game has been dissected, so Eagles fans simply got to know him a little too well. His career has honestly been more consistent than Kurt Warner's. But Warner has the ring and he finished strong with the Cardinals. Another trip to the Super Bowl would help his cause immensely, but he's already in the Canton conversation.

* I posted on our staff blog, Pattison Ave., about the Phillies. It's a simple question about Jayson Werth cursing at a fan last night when he couldn't make a catch in foul territory.

* In case you missed it from last night, I wrote about ESPN somehow finding room to rip Eagles fans in its LeBron James coverage.

* And yesterday, we did another Camp Countdown video, taking a look at the Eagles' offensive line.

* I'm on vacation and headed to Denver, Grand Junction (Colorado) and Portland, Oregon over the next week. Who has recommendations on what I must see/do in those destinations?

* I asked for book suggestions on Twitter and will ask here also. Sports-focused is preferable, but I'm willing to branch out a bit.

* Oh, and don't worry about a lack of MTC content while I'm gone. In the age of laptops and wireless connections, I'll still provide posts daily (at least).

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About this blog
Sheil Kapadia is in his fifth season writing about the Eagles and the NFL for philly.com. His earliest memories as a sports fan include several trips to Veterans Stadium with his Dad. He's not a beat writer or an Insider, but is here to discuss the NFL 365 days a year. E-mail him at skapadia@philly.com or by clicking here

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