Projecting success for Kolb
A simple rule using three criteria projects NFL success for Kevin Kolb. However, the same rule would have projected failure for Donovan McNabb.
Projecting success for Kolb
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
Reader Gregg B. passed along a link to an SI.com article about a simple formula for predicting success for quarterback prospects.
It's called The Rule of 26-27-60, and it focuses on the following three things: Wonderlic score (26), number of games started (27) and college completion percentage (60).
John P. Lopez of SI.com argues that if a college quarterback prospect reaches those three markers, chances are he will be successful.
QBs like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers all passed the test.
QBs like Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington and Akili Smith did not.
So the obvious question is: What about Kevin Kolb?
Kolb scored a 28 on his Wonderlic, started 50 games in college (including Bowl games) and completed 62 percent of his passes. So yes, according to the formula, he is on the right path to NFL success.
However, as Lopez admits, there are exceptions, including (you guessed it) Donovan McNabb.
You know the story well. Five quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the 1999 draft. Had the Eagles taken any of the other four (Tim Couch, who went first; Akili Smith; Daunte Culpepper; or Cade McNown), who knows where the franchise would have been the past decade. But they ended up with the right guy - McNabb.
So it's good that they didn't follow this rule. McNabb only passed one of the three criteria. He started 49 games in college. But he scored a reported 14 on his Wonderlic and completed 58.4 percent of his pass attempts.
Other quarterbacks like Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco did not meet the three marks either.
As was pointed out by Bill Barnwell on Twitter, David Lewin of Football Outsiders wrote about this phenomenon a couple years ago, but he did not include the Wonderlic in his criteria - just college completion percentage and number of starts.
Other links:
* ESPN.com's Matt Mosley discusses McNabb's Hall of Fame credentials:
I think McNabb will always be appreciated more by the national media more than the folks in Philly. Every game has been dissected, so Eagles fans simply got to know him a little too well. His career has honestly been more consistent than Kurt Warner's. But Warner has the ring and he finished strong with the Cardinals. Another trip to the Super Bowl would help his cause immensely, but he's already in the Canton conversation.
* I posted on our staff blog, Pattison Ave., about the Phillies. It's a simple question about Jayson Werth cursing at a fan last night when he couldn't make a catch in foul territory.
* In case you missed it from last night, I wrote about ESPN somehow finding room to rip Eagles fans in its LeBron James coverage.
* And yesterday, we did another Camp Countdown video, taking a look at the Eagles' offensive line.
* I'm on vacation and headed to Denver, Grand Junction (Colorado) and Portland, Oregon over the next week. Who has recommendations on what I must see/do in those destinations?
* I asked for book suggestions on Twitter and will ask here also. Sports-focused is preferable, but I'm willing to branch out a bit.
* Oh, and don't worry about a lack of MTC content while I'm gone. In the age of laptops and wireless connections, I'll still provide posts daily (at least).
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Books? Check out Powell's Books in Portland.— givemeabreak- I sure feel better about handing over the reins to Kolb now.......... As to the 1999 draft, no one can project what the other QB's would have done in Eagle green. Tim Couch might have been much more successful if he hadn't been running for his life on every play.— dlscholt
- DLSCHOLT: McNabb was running for his life when he started also; we are just lucky that he could scramble....— Bigbadrookie
Anything less than a 30 on the Wondelic is just embarssingly pathetic, especially since the pool of questions is known and available. Just shows how even the "bright" quarterbacks are basically brainless sacs of flesh.- Hey Sheil-- When in Denver, check out Arrowhead Golf course. It's one of the most beautiful public courses in the US!— DerbyBound
- I'm afraid that part of what 'GregJames' says will wind up being true. KK is gonna be a decent QB, but he will be VERY hard pressed to keep up with Andy's play calling, as the O-Line will leak like a sieve. And as we have seen, he simply will NOT be able to escape a linebacker, DE or D-Back when the oppo blitzes. After the man learns how to take the hits, roll with the punches, and MOST importantly...a better O-Line that MUST be in place for the 2011 season, I predict he will become the QB Andy wants to see.— TBear
- Its the Democrats again!!!!— MrPink
Has anybody ever clicked on the 'listen' icon at the top of the stories? It is funny to listen to with a computer voice; Kolb is pronounced "Kobe"— kjuggs77- Predicting sucess for Klob, 6 TDs, 20 INTS, 12 Fumbles lost and sacked 60 times on the season, enjoy the basement, losers.— Bello100
Comment removed.- Uh oh.....is this "Bello100" also, 5isda...or Donovanhasanewteam, or 5isKing or.........oh never mind, he has too many monikers to keep up. Kubb will be fine in this offense. Look for him to struggle this year but next year?? Kubb will be the Man next year! Look for the Eagles to go 10-6 next year. This year? Well.........look to Brian Dawkins and the renewed Denver Broncos instead!!!!
- LooK TO Brian Dawkins and the Broncos, look for Brain Dawkins to miss tackles and get burned on Sundays.... Kind of like the 2008 NFC Championship Game.— Bello100
- I think McNabb will always be appreciated more by the national media more than the folks in Philly. Every game has been dissected, so Eagles fans simply got to know him a little too well. His career has honestly been more consistent than Kurt Warner's. But Warner has the ring and he finished strong with the Cardinals. Another trip to the Super Bowl would help his cause immensely, but he's already in the Canton conversation. .........................Warner has a SB Ring because he played on a SOLID TEAM all around, not GOLD STANDARD PLAYERS AROUND HIM, And oh, he had a Real Coach, not an Idiot....— Bello100
- Have you ever seen the Wonderlic questions they are a joke if you are coming out of college and payed any kind of attention in your classes you should do pretty well on it. Most are common sense!!! Like question # 1) If you have an air guitarist on your football team how many air guitarist do you have? Answer: One too many!!!! GO BIRDS!!!— fly4philly
Voytas, I see you've completed the ""Lonewolf Stupid Comment of the Day" course. From the looks of that one you aced the course too.— tpizza
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