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Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Eagles shortchanged by over/under

My apologies if this list has already been chewed over, but if it was, I missed it. It is annual springtime fodder, the NFL over/under list for wins in the upcoming season. I can't believe the Eagles' over/under is only 9 wins.

Just look at these three numbers:

Giants, 10.5 win.

Cowboys, 9.5 wins.

Eagles, 9 wins.

Maybe it's because New York is a bigger market. Maybe it's because everybody follows the Dallas Cowboys. Maybe the totals of those two teams are over-inflated as a result. I don't know. But I have a hard time seeing it. When the games mattered last year, when the final accounting was done, a schizophrenic Eagles team was better than the Cowboys and beat the Giants at the Meadowlands in the playoffs -- and, on top of that, the Eagles have remade their offense in an attempt to remove some of the schizophrenia.

I know, I know, I'm counting on Jason Peters being a player at left tackle, and Leonard Weaver at fullback, and LeSean McCoy at backup running back. But McCoy is the only one who doesn't have an NFL track record. It just seems to me that the Eagles have created more options for themselves to win close games, or ugly games. They won nine and tied one last year, and they lost (and tied) a number of tight and nasty games, and even if they pull out only one more of them, they're better than 9.

What am I missing?

Posted by Rich Hofmann @ 10:55 AM  Permalink | 48 comments
48
Comments   
Posted 11:10 AM, 05/13/2009
PhillyPhantastico
You are missing the fact that the over/under is not a prediction of games won or lost, but where Vegas believes is the mid point to get equal bets from the betting public on both sides of the line in May. Birds won 9 games last year, so 9 games isn't a bad line.
Posted 11:18 AM, 05/13/2009
PhillyPhantastico
One observation: The Ravens are @ 8.5, even though they trounced the Birds and Dallas.
Posted 11:20 AM, 05/13/2009
PhillyPhantastico
One observation: The Ravens are @ 8.5, even though they trounced the Birds and Dallas.
Posted 11:33 AM, 05/13/2009
madkins7
is a tie a half win or a (.5)???
Posted 11:54 AM, 05/13/2009
Greg S
Yes, the line is trying to get people to bet, but Rich's point is, he doesnt see how you are going to get an equal number of people to bet the under considering they had 9 wins last season, are a better team than last season, and teams they beat in the stretch run have higher over/unders.
Posted 12:40 PM, 05/13/2009
Bama
You are missing the point that the Eagles always disappoint. Plus, we still have that #5 at QB, don't we? The Giants replaced Burress quite nicely and the Cowboys got rid of T.O., so they have both improved.
Posted 12:58 PM, 05/13/2009
atp2007
There may be more consideration of the Eagle's schedule in Vegas. The Eagles (and Redskins) play several games on the West Coast, while the Giants and Cowboys don't go passed Denver, and get the west coast teams at home for the most part. I once read an article which calculated the extra wear and tear on a team that has to fly back and forth to the coasts repeatedly, and the way it screws up your post game practice schedules. The extra trips to the coast could account for the .5 to 1 game difference, plus the Eahgles play a late day game in Chicago where they haven't done well since the Fog Bowl (maybe it's Mama McNabb's saturated fat meal), even with Kyle Orten at QB. The Eagles Bye week is also quite early, so they go a long stretch in season with no breaks and a lot of long distance travel.
Posted 01:01 PM, 05/13/2009
chicagoB
The sum of the NFC East lines would require the teams to go 10 games over .500 (10.5-5.5, 9.5-6.5, 9-7, 8-8). That would require a record of 25-15 in the 40 games that the teams play outside the NFC East. Take all four of them under and you stand a much better chance of going 3-1 than 1-3.
Posted 01:07 PM, 05/13/2009
PhillyPhantastico
Greg: Then Rich should bet the over.
Posted 01:25 PM, 05/13/2009
eaglesrick
I'll be in Vegas in 3 weeks and am plunking down some cash on the Over. I definitly agree!!!
Posted 01:29 PM, 05/13/2009
Onlineps2beast
CANT WAIT TO RUN TO DELAWARE AND BET THE OVER ON THAT PROP, EZ MONEY.
Posted 02:03 PM, 05/13/2009
surfbruddah
this is a no brainer for us bird brains. I'm betting over!
Posted 02:43 PM, 05/13/2009
JimG
Some of you guys just pull made-up stuff out of your butts, cracks me up, lol. The Eagles haven't done well in Chicago since the Fog Bowl? Interesting since last time the Eagles played in Chicago was 2004 and the Eagles won 19-9. Sorry reality conflicts with your witty remark about McNabb's mom.
Posted 02:50 PM, 05/13/2009
tjc
Bama, how did the Giants replace Burress quite nicely?
Posted 02:51 PM, 05/13/2009
tjc
JimG, Eagles lost in Chicago last year.
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About Rich Hofmann
Rich Hofmann arrived at the Daily News in 1980 for a job whose status was officially designated as "full-time, temporary." A senior at Penn at the time, he was hired to fill in on the copy desk during a staff illness. The notion of him covering the Eagles or being a columnist did not exist in anyone's imagination. It was supposed to be six weeks and out, but he never left. It is only one of the reasons why so many people have concerns about him as a potential house guest. Rich has blogged the postseasons of the Flyers and Eagles.

You can now follow The Idle Rich on Twitter.
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