Eagles playoff scenarios
Philly.com, Inquirer, and Daily News coverage of the Eagles
Eagles playoff scenarios
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
First of all, Happy Thanksgiving to all the MTC readers out there. Hope everyone is enjoying the day with friends, family, food, and of course, football.
While I know many of you are not allowing yourselves to think playoffs with this team, it's worth at least exploring what it would take for this team to get to the postseason.
Let's start with the division. Here's how things size up. The final column is strength of schedule, courtesy of Football Outsiders:
| Record | Division Record | Schedule Strength | |
| Cowboys | 6-4 | 2-1 | 15 |
| Giants | 6-4 | 1-2 | 2 |
| Eagles | 4-6 | 3-1 | 11 |
The Eagles are two games back with six to play. Do they need to win out? It depends on what the Giants and Cowboys do. If either of them go 5-1 or 6-0, the Eagles have no shot. If they go 4-2, the Eagles would have to finish 6-0 to have a shot.
But if they go 3-3 or worse, which is possible, the Eagles could get by with one loss in the final six, as long as that loss is not to the Cowboys or Redskins.
The Eagles are actually in a pretty good position to win the tiebreak over Dallas and New York. The first tiebreak is head-to-head. Again, assuming the Eagles' one loss is not to the Cowboys (the two teams square off on Christmas Eve in Dallas), they would win that one.
The Eagles are also in position to control their own destiny in the tiebreak against the Giants. The two teams split their head-to-head matchups, but if the Eagles beat the Redskins and Cowboys, they would own a 5-1 division record, which would be the difference. The Giants have the second-most difficult remaining schedule in the NFL, per Football Outsiders: at New Orleans, vs. Green Bay, at Dallas, vs. Washington, at Jets, vs. Dallas.
The Cowboys' strength of schedule ranks 15th: vs. the Dolphins, at Arizona, vs. the Giants, at Tampa, vs. the Eagles, at the Giants.
Bodog recently released this week's Super Bowl odds. The Cowboys are 16/1; the Eagles are 30/1; and the Giants are 40/1.
As for the wild card, things get a little more dicey. Let's assume the current division leaders hold (Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco). There are seven other teams with a 4-6 record or better, all potentially battling for two wild-card spots.
| Team | Record | Strength of Schedule |
| Lions | 7-3 | 8 |
| Bears | 7-3 | 27 |
| Giants | 6-4 | 2 |
| Falcons | 6-4 | 20 |
| Eagles | 4-6 | 11 |
| Bucs | 4-6 | 21 |
| Seahawks | 4-6 | 24 |
The Eagles are three games behind the Lions and Bears, and two games behind the Falcons. To make matters more complicated, Chicago and Atlanta both would own the tiebreak over the Eagles since they won the head-to-head matchup.
In other words, the path to the postseason through a wild-card berth would be more difficult than an NFC East title. The Eagles would have to leap three of the four teams currently ahead of them. The Bears are without Jay Cutler, but they have the most favorable schedule among the group.
Eagles fans should put their support behind Green Bay in today's Thanksgiving Day matchup.
And I mentioned the Giants and Falcons scenarios above.
So that's where the Birds stand entering the final six weeks of the season. It's amazing how much better things would be looking if the Eagles had held on against either Arizona, Atlanta, New York, San Francisco or Chicago. Instead, they need help the rest of the way and almost definitely need to win at least five of six down the stretch. Not an easy task for a team that's won back-to-back games just once this season.
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Playoffs...buffoon— Fire_Andy- Appreciate Andy Reid's success here (Reid has compiled the best win total, winning percentage and playoff victory total) in team history) and he gets a pass if they miss playoffs this year.
in a scenario where there was a different Eagles coach who was to be let go and he was available, you'd love him to be hired. Hope he stays another 10 years.— desert Charley - Thanks for the breakdown. Probably won't need it, but thanks again.— kjuggs77
- 8-8— SilliBilli
- To quote Jim Mora: "Playoffs? Playoffs?!?!?"— El Tel
- 8-8 is very likely that is what I expect. Not gonna cut it. Would have been better if we would have lost to the Gmen and gone in the tank.— eaglessuperfan
- blah blah -- Brady-->Gronkowski 35 Eagles 10— warbiscuit
- Only in Philly would a 4-6 team looking at the Patriots on Sunday waste time with playoff scenario's.
The Pats will win easily Sunday. Brady is better and Belichick is much better.
Even if the Eagles somehow cover a tight end for once and find a way to win, they'll lose in Seattle.
The Eagles need to bring the same intensity they had in NY to have a chance, and this is a team that stinks at home.— Fan74 - that Chicago loss was sickening. Best case scenario they beat Dallas and Washington while Dallas and NY split, leaving them a theoretical 6-6 and Dallas and NY 7-5. They'd hold the tiebreaker and need to win one more game than Dallas and NY the rest of the way. Sadly doable.
There's zero shot at the wild card. They need to win four more games than two teams with six to play.— thefadd - Sheil has an early turkey coma cause he is clearly dreaming.— coloradoeagle
- I'm more worried about not helping the Cowboys or Giants have good seeding in the playoffs.— Norm3
- Stinking cowboys get all the breaks... there are certain teams that make their opponents twinge .. like the braves .. irish... so on the big plays like the one just before the half... the fins quaterback is all thumbs and gives them a touchdown. NUTS— stoky
- Atlanta Braves and Notre Dame make you cringe? you've got as low threshold.... — desert Charley
- agreed. — coloradoeagle
- Birds beat the Pats and then choke against the SeaHawks. But that's O.K. as long as Fat Andy gets the ax at the end of the year.— techdiver
- With the win yesterday, unfortunately I think Dallas is in great position to win the division.— watsonmr
- Strength of schedule really means nothing with the Eagles. They have lost games to teams that have been considered weak opponents. I honestly feel, and I'm a big Eagles fan, that they do not deserve a playoff appearence this year.— PhillyFanSouth
- True Eagle fans never, ever root against their team! Now "band-wagoners" on the other hand switch team colors as often as the wind changes directions. I can't understand or comprehend someone wishing their team to lose so the coach can be fired. I think Andy, Joe and Jeff are smart enough men to realize that when something doesn't work, it's time for a change. Afterall, these succesful men didn't get to where they are in life keeping things "status quo". I look for a change in Eagles coaching withing the next 1-2 years if and only if, the Birds continue to lose more than they win. But it won't happen unless all three men agree that's its time for a change. Go Birds!!!— drantonio1
- Santa says Andy will be here to finish out his contract— tommy_the_k
- play-off possibilities = mental masturbation. not with this coaching staff. roster is still a couple f players from being a legit play-off and championship contender.— Smashmouth
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