Does icing the kicker really work?
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Does icing the kicker really work?
If you’re anything like me, your shouts of joy at seeing Lawrence Tynes’ last-second field goal attempt sail wide last night turned to shouts of largely-unprintable expletives when you realized that Andy Reid called a timeout just as the ball was snapped, thus affording Tynes another shot at the 54-yarder. If you’re anything like me, you also probably said something unprintable about the practice of ‘icing the kicker’ and how stupid you think it is. After all, we’ve seen countless kickers miss the first attempt, only to make it on their second try.
It turns out Michael Vick is a lot like us. After the game, he said he wasn’t a fan of the practice. When asked about it in his post game press conference, Eagles’ coach Andy Reid said he regretted calling a timeout in an attempt to ice Tynes.
Now, hindsight is 20/20, but if coaches regret icing the kicker after the game, why do they still do it? Who came up with the stupid practice anyway? And, more importantly, how often does icing the kicker even work?
It turns out, there’s plenty of research done on the subject. Just this past Friday, ESPN’s Stats & Info blog fielded a question on the subject. They determined that, since 2001, kickers are successful on 81% of field goals when no timeout is called beforehand and 76% successful when a timeout is called. That’s only a 5% difference. And in a season where kickers are making 92% of their kicks, the best start in the sport’s history, is that 5% chance really worth giving the kicker a second shot?
In their 2011 book Scorecasting, Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. Jon Werthheim took things a little further and considered the amount of time left on a clock for iced-kicks:
|
FG success whether opponent calls a timeout or not |
|||
|
Situation |
All kicks |
Iced |
Not iced |
|
Less than two minuntes left in fourth quarter or OT |
76.2% |
74.2% |
77.6% |
|
Less than one minunte left in fourth quarter or OT |
75.5% |
74.3% |
76.4% |
|
Less than 30 seconds left in fourth quarter or OT |
76.5% |
76.0% |
76.9% |
|
Less than 15 seconds left in fourth quarter or OT |
76.4% |
77.5% |
75.4% |
The Freakonomics blog says that Moskowitz and Werthheim even compared kickers’ success under pressure against high-pressure free throws in NBA games and, amazingly, both groups of athletes maintained about a 76% success rate.
So, if icing the kicker doesn’t really work all that often, why do coaches do it? The simplest explanation is that icing the kicker is now ‘part of the game’, and when something becomes ‘part of the game’ coaches will keep doing it no matter what. Freakonomics’ Stephen J. Dubner says “Coaches are a generally risk-averse group, and find it’s easier to parrot an accepted strategy — even if it’s worthless — than explain why they deviated from accepted tradition.” Deadspin’s Drew Magary, as he is wont to do, put it differently, saying “coaches possess a kind of tunnel vision that often precludes them from doing things that are antithetical to winning football games.” To state it plainly: icing the kicker is something that NFL coaches do, so NFL coaches will keep icing the kicker, no matter what the numbers say.
So what genius came up with this idea in the first place? The New York Times says that while the notion of calling a timeout before a high-pressure kick has been around the game for a long time, it was then-Broncos coach Mike Shanahan in 2007, who was the first coach to wait to call a timeout until the kicker looked up to take the snap. When a timeout is called from the sidelines, it takes a few seconds for the players on the field to realize it, so the field goal unit is forced to go through the act of the kick before finding out it won’t count.
This practice wouldn’t have been possible until 2004, when the NFL rulebook was amended to allow for head coaches to call timeouts from the sideline.
In 2007, Mike Pereira, then the NFL’s head of officiating, now Fox Sports’ on-air officiating guru, called the practice of icing the kicker an “unintended consequence of a good rule change. I don’t think any of us projected it would be used this way. It just doesn’t seem right.”
That was five seasons ago, and despite evidence to the contrary, it doesn’t seem like NFL head coaches will stop trying to ice kickers any time soon.
Andy would have been run out of town today if he made the 2nd FG attempt...— briman- The stats say it's worthwhile, but I think you're right because of the situation.
It was only 3rd down & there were 15 seconds left. Reid was lucky Manning didn't go out there and throw another 5 yard sideline out. That would have made all the difference. - We need an additional stat. What is the success rate when the timeout is called AND the kick is attempted.
Also, if Reid doesn't ice the kicker and he made the game-winning kick, how many people are complaining that Reid had timeouts and didn't ice.— Tom Crymes - What if the first one was made????— dwilly
- Coaches ice the kicker because they would rather try "something" than sit there and do "nothing". NFL coaches are control freaks who like to feel as if they have a hand in the outcome of something, even when they clearly don't.— jeiche
- I think an analysis on the effectiveness of icing a kicker should also include the distance of the field goal attempt. I have a hunch that icing a kicker on a long field goal attempt (45+ yards) isn't effective and might actually help the kicker, and alternatively, icing a kicker on a mid or short range attempt, while still largely ineffective, at least has a statistically significant effect.— lookyhere
- in my humble opinion, I believe that when a Kicker has the time to jog onto the field with his holder, pick out a spot where he wants the ball placed and line everthing up, then perhaps "icing" him may not be such a bad idea, just to throw him off his routine, but in last nights case, wth the Giants unsure of whether to kick it or not, and running and scrambling onto the field to get lined up, icing the kicker was a STUPID move....just gave them time to relax and make a better kick....TG it was a litle out of his range or we would look like idiots!!! Coach Reid has NO FRICKIN clue how to and when to, use his timeouts!— Tony $
- All Andy Reid accomplished was for the kicker to collect his nerves and focus on the second attempt, which was spot on, except for 2 yards short. Now I know why Michael Vick is not as an effective QB as he used to be...— escaped to CA.
- i hate icing they should change the rules & get rid of it. Figures it was Mike Shanahan who started it.— Norm3
- It just delays the game. The ploy doesn't work.— 4thand10
- I was screaming for joy at the first kick and was already in full celebration mode, or as my friend says "strung out," and the realized he called a time out - I went to full SAILOR mode. THANK GOD he was short. I hope this icing the kicker stops, who needs a practice kick? I admit, we don't think much of kickers, but they are professionals just like a QB, don't give him any practice kick! Stop the Icing. Thank god we won, tho.— carmendmv
carmenmdv makes the good point that icing gives the kicker a practice try. I'll go a step further and note that it also gives him a chance to gauge the effect of wind and other atmospheric conditions on the ball in flight. If indeed the statistical rate of failure after icing is close to that before icing, there would seem to be few good reasons to do it, and several good reasons not to.
