Brookover: Elite NFL coaches as vital as franchise quarterbacks
The research could have been done in 12 days rather than 12 months, but Howie Roseman was mostly right when he concluded that one of the common denominators for the NFL's greatest teams is a franchise quarterback.
The research could have been done in 12 days rather than 12 months, but Howie Roseman was mostly right when he concluded that one of the common denominators for the NFL's greatest teams is a franchise quarterback.
Look at the eight remaining teams in this year's NFL playoffs and you can see that theory has pretty much held true. Three of the remaining quarterbacks - New England's Tom Brady, Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers - are going to be Hall of Famers. Another - Seattle's Russell Wilson - has won a Super Bowl and played in another. Atlanta's Matt Ryan just had a career year and finished with a league-best passer rating of 117.1 while Dallas' Dak Prescott had the highest passer rating ever by a rookie quarterback at 104.9.
The other two guys - Kansas City's Alex Smith and Houston's Brock Osweiler - are a different story. Smith should not be lumped in with Osweiler because he has had a solid NFL career since being taken first overall in 2005, but his greatest attribute with the Chiefs is ball security. Osweiler, meanwhile, was arguably the worst free-agent signing of the offseason, but a bad division, a great defense and a bit of playoff luck in facing the injury-depleted Oakland Raiders still have the Texans alive. They will not be for long.
The evidence on franchise QBs fueled Roseman's diligent pursuit of Carson Wentz last offseason and time will tell if he got the right guy. Not that it matters all that much because circumstances are always so different, but Wentz only had a better statistical first season as a full-time starter than Smith and Osweiler among the guys mentioned above.
All we can say for certain right now about Wentz is that it's too soon to say he is a franchise quarterback and it's too soon to say he is not.
Another common denominator among the NFL elite is the head coach. Roseman has not talked much about that part of his study during his one-season hiatus, but he did give a fair and accurate assessment of Doug Pederson's first season as the Eagles head coach during Wednesday's news conference.
"You talk about facing adversity," Roseman said. "Head coach comes in and our right tackle [Lane Johnson] is suspended for 10 games, our starting quarterback [Sam Bradford] is traded eight days before the start of the regular season. And the way the players responded, certainly toward the end of the season, you could see how the players felt about him. I'm just looking forward to him getting better and continuing to grow like all of us in our jobs."
Pederson definitely deserves another year. He did face a lot of adversity and he also had the least amount of talent in his own division. If Wentz has faith in Pederson - and there's every reason to believe he does - then the Eagles have the right man for right now.
Here's the concern: If you perform the same exercise with the head coaches that I just went through with the quarterbacks, it's a lot easier to feel good about the future of the quarterback than it is about the future of the coach.
The reason is simple: In almost every case, the resumés of the coaches at the time of their hirings was much more impressive than Pederson's before he was hired by the Eagles.
Start with New England's Bill Belichick and Seattle's Pete Carroll. Both had previous head coaching experience in the NFL and won at least one playoff game before being hired by their current teams. Belichick, of course, already had two Super Bowl rings as a defensive coordinator with the New York Giants and Carroll had won two national championships at USC.
You know about Andy Reid's success before being hired in Kansas City and what Bill O'Brien had done for a Penn State program in unprecedented turmoil before moving to Houston.
Mike Tomlin was only 34 when he was hired by the Steelers in 2007, but he had been the architect of a pretty good defense under head coach Brad Childress in Minnesota the year before and had cut his teeth as a secondary coach under Tony Dungy and Monte Kiffin in Tampa Bay. Obviously, he was a good choice.
In his two seasons before being hired in Atlanta, Dan Quinn had been the defensive coordinator for a Seattle team that had allowed the fewest points and yards in football.
Mike McCarthy had spent five seasons as an offensive coordinator, calling plays in New Orleans and San Francisco, before he was hired in Green Bay. Jason Garrett was one of the most sought-after coaches in the league when Dallas hired him to replace Wade Phillips halfway through the 2010 season.
Nobody besides the Eagles wanted Pederson and that is probably because he had very limited experience as a play-caller during his time as Reid's offensive coordinator. After one season, the jury is still out on his work in that respect.
For the record, all of the remaining playoff coaches except one had a better first-year record with their current teams. The good news? Belichick was the one who did not. All of the above coaches except Garrett had led their team to at least one playoff appearance after two seasons.
So that then is the challenge for Pederson. Is that too much to ask? Not of the great coaches it isn't.
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