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Hayes: Uncertainty defines Eagles as camp begins

THE EAGLES reboot Monday. An underwhelmed fan base will hold its breath. When before has an NFL team entered a season with a level of uncertainty so high? Unless a team is facing a sale or a move, it's hard to imagine a franchise this unstable.

Doug Pederson has to prove he can handle responsibilities of an NFL head coach.
Doug Pederson has to prove he can handle responsibilities of an NFL head coach.Read moreAssociated Press

THE EAGLES reboot Monday. An underwhelmed fan base will hold its breath.

When before has an NFL team entered a season with a level of uncertainty so high? Unless a team is facing a sale or a move, it's hard to imagine a franchise this unstable.

From general manager to long snapper, this training camp could look vastly different from the one that will begin a year from now. It is a bizarre situation.

Start at the top. Howie Roseman was deposed for one season then drastically reconstructed the team when he re-ascended in December. Ominously, chairman Jeffrey Lurie said Roseman will be held accountable for his moves. Lurie held Chip Kelly "accountable" by firing him less than a year after Kelly remade the team.

Chief among Roseman's remake: Hiring Doug Pederson as head coach. Has there ever been a head coach hired with less impressive credentials?

Pederson and Roseman then settled on former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz as the defensive coordinator. In 2015, no one else settled on Jim Schwartz. He was out of coaching.

Then, consider the players. Starting quarterback Sam Bradford signed a contract extension but he enters the season fully expecting to be replaced in a year. Unless Sammy Sleeves turns into Sammy Baugh, earns a massive contract extension and renders first-round pick Carson Wentz irrelevant, Wentz will be the starter in 2017.

The rest of the roster is hardly more certain.

The top two running backs, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles, have nothing guaranteed past this season. Left tackle Jason Peters and center Jason Kelce, both coming off poor performances, would be painless casualties against the 2017 cap if they play poorly again.

Connor Barwin, a prototype outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme, saw his sack total fall from 14 1/2 in 2014 to seven in 2015. Can he manage even seven sacks as an end in Schwartz's 4-3 defense? If not, it costs only $600,000 to cut Barwin after this season.

You cannot know what second-year middle linebacker Jordan Hicks will give you, if anything, considering his startling history of injuries. Similarly, there's no whiff of consistency from fifth-year linebacker Mychal Kendricks from play to play, much less game to game. The cornerbacks are a total gamble.

Even long snapper Jon Dorenbos struggled so badly that the team auditioned snappers in November. Dorenbos is a fine magician, but he might disappear sooner than he plans.

So little of the Eagles' structure is anchored that it is alarmingly unstable even for the NFL, which is the most volatile of leagues.

Of course, there are a handful of known commodities with solid futures and realistic expectations.

For instance, offensive coordinator Frank Reich was a head coaching candidate after the 2014 season in San Diego. A year later he was a scapegoat firing.

Jordan Matthews progressed nicely in his second season as a slot receiver, the position for which he is best suited. Brent Celek earned a modest contract extension after his ninth workhorse season. Malcolm Jenkins' best season at safety gained him a five-year extension. Sproles, 33 and in his 12th year, will be Sproles.

With much drama and hullabaloo, defensive tackle Fletcher Cox leveraged three seasons in a 3-4 scheme into a 6-year, $102 million deal. There's no guarantee Cox will play to that level in a 4-3.

Similarly, right tackle Lane Johnson and tight end Zach Ertz shined in Chip Kelly's Machine Gun offense, not in Pederson's plodding West Coast derivative. They, like defensive end Vinny Curry, signed big-money extensions based more on what Roseman believes they can be, not based on what they have been.

To some degree, every team faces this sort of uncertainty when camp opens.

This, however, is exceptional.

Of course, all of the trepidation could be for naught. Pederson might turn out to be a latter-day Dick Vermeil. When built around a stout defensive line, Schwartz's defenses have been vicious. Bradford has never fulfilled the massive promise that made him a consensus No. 1 pick in 2010, but reasons for that abound: lack of weapons, injury, transience.

NFL running backs have proven to be as interchangeable as Lego pieces. For the moment, it appears that Kelce and Peters have more help on the line. Cox was drafted in the first round to play in a 4-3, as was defensive end Brandon Graham; perhaps a return to it could make them even more effective. Ertz has shown a remarkable rapport with Bradford.

Hicks displayed instinctive brilliance last season and Kendricks' athleticism flashes, just in maddeningly short bursts.

You would think second-year wide receiver Nelson Agholor, having survived a summertime accusation of sexual assault by a stripper (no charges were brought), would approach this season with a degree of focus.

In a typical season, any one or two of the Eagles' issues would give plenty of cause for concern: The GM's future; the head coach's credentials; the defensive coordinator's viability; the change in offensive and defensive schemes; the quarterbacks, running backs, offensive line, linebackers and cornerbacks. Together, they are a volatile combination of uncertainty.

Who knows? All of these unknown and unknowable questions might pan out in the Eagles' favor. That would take a lot of luck.

Don't hold your breath.

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