Head coach only part of Eagles equation

THE MORE you examine the teams that have risen to the forefront of the NFL in the last few seasons, the more you get the sense that the guys who matter most are the ones around the head coach.

Jeffrey Lurie emphasized the "trajectory" of his organization when he explained his decision to dismiss Chip Kelly after three seasons. When you look at the trajectories of teams such as the Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Packers, Steelers, and Vikings, they all seem to have two things in common: a stable front office rich in scouting and roster-building experience, and a veteran defensive coaching staff that had an immediate impact on the performance of the players it inherited.

There was a common theme on wild-card weekend, and it wasn't exactly revolutionary. If you have a good defense, you have a chance. Years from now, when we talk about that winning gene that Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger possessed, we'll be basing our arguments in part on games like the Seahawks' 10-9 win over the Vikings and the Steelers' 18-16 win over the Bengals. The fewer points an opponent scores, the more opportunities a quarterback will have to make a play that proves to be the game-winner.

Again, this isn't groundbreaking stuff.

But it is worth noting as the Eagles continue their search for their next head coach, and, by extension, the fate of quarterback Sam Bradford.

Aaron Rodgers is one of the most talented quarterbacks of all time, but his only Super Bowl victory came in a season in which the Packers allowed the second fewest points in the NFL.

This year, the five teams in the NFC that won the most games were the teams that allowed the five fewest points. In the AFC, the seven teams that won at least nine games were the teams that allowed the fewest points, the first four of which made the playoffs.

The only playoff team that allowed more than 323 points in the regular season was Washington. The last year the Eagles allowed fewer than 323 points was 2008, which was also the last year they won a playoff game. Over the last four years, they have allowed 444, 382, 400, and 430.

The point isn't that the Eagles should hire Tom Coughlin over Doug Pederson or Ben McAdoo. In fact, that is almost opposite of the point. Coughlin's Super Bowl wins came in seasons in which the Giants finished in the bottom half of the league in points allowed. Only once in his 12 seasons did they finish in the top half of the league in both yards and points allowed. Meanwhile, Pederson is an acolyte of Andy Reid, whose regime played a key role in the deterioration of the unit that Eagles fans have spent the last four-plus seasons cursing.

When Reid arrived in Kansas City in 2013, he hired longtime Jets assistant Bob Sutton, who installed an aggressive, attacking 3-4 scheme that had its roots in Rex Ryan and Bill Parcells. The previous season, the Chiefs allowed 425 points. In Sutton's first three years, they've held opponents to 305, 281 and 287 points.

When the Seahawks hired Pete Carroll in 2010, Seattle had finished in the bottom 10 of the league in points and yards allowed in the previous two seasons. They finished 27th in both categories in Carroll's first year, then finished in the top 10 in each of the next five, top five in four of them.

In 2014, the Vikings hired Mike Zimmer, whose defenses have finished in the top 11 in points in the last five years and six of the last seven. He took a defense that finished 32nd in points and 31st in yards and finished 11th in points and 14th in yards in 2014 and fifth in points and 13th in yards in 2015.

Likewise, the Broncos' current success began when they hired veteran defensive mind John Fox as head coach in 2011.

This year, the Broncos replaced Fox with Gary Kubiak, who brought in Wade Phillips to run the defense, a guy who had previously led the Texans' rebirth.

But there is another correlation, and it's one that is a bit more concerning for Eagles fans. In 2013, in addition to Reid, the Chiefs hired a general manager in John Dorsey who had spent 12 seasons as the director of college scouting for the Packers and who replaced onetime Patriots architect Scott Pioli.

Sutton, the coordinator, inherited three starters whom the team selected in the first three rounds of the 2010-11 drafts (safety Eric Berry, defensive end Allen Bailey, linebacker Justin Houston). Of the Eagles' six picks in the first three rounds those years, only Brandon Graham is still with the team. Since then, the Chiefs have drafted defensive tackle Dontari Poe (2012) and cornerback Marcus Peters (2015) in the first round and both were starters this season.

The same year they hired Carroll, the Seahawks brought aboard general manager John Schneider, who had spent the previous eight seasons in the Packers personnel department.

They took Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor in 2010, Richard Sherman and K.J. Wright in 2011, and Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner in 2012.

The Broncos named John Elway general manager in 2011, and he built a front office that included former Eagles football operations members Matt Russell and Tom Heckert as his chief lieutenants.

In Minnesota, Zimmer's transition was aided by the work of GM Rick Spielman, hired in 2006. Minnesota amassed a remarkable seven first-round picks from 2012-14, which they used to draft safety Harrison Smith, cornerback Xavier Rhodes, defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd and linebacker Anthony Barr, all of whom were starters this year (along with 2015 second-round linebacker Eric Kendricks). Zimmer signed tackles Linval Joseph and Tom Johnson and added them to Floyd to build a middle like the one he had in Cincinnati with Geno Atkins and Domata Peko.

If the Eagles end up with a coach such as Pederson, or even Coughlin, his success or failure will very likely hinge on his initial appraisal of the Eagles' defensive personnel and his hiring of a coordinator who can maximize the talents of that personnel. It also likely will hinge on the performance of the front office that hires him. And that will require a sudden dose of self-awareness.

On Twitter: @ByDavidMurphy