10-6 for Birds wouldn't be a surprise this time

A YEAR AGO - when Chip Kelly was a rookie coach straight out of Oregon, Michael Vick was the starting quarterback and kicker Alex Henery was listed as one of the team's strengths - few could have predicted that the Eagles would win 10 games and no one would have mapped out the unpredictable path they took to capturing the NFC East.

Things are a little bit different going into 2014.

Kelly is in his second season and his innovative offensive philosophies have proved to be as successful as they were in college.

Nick Foles made the improbable transition from backup to Pro Bowler and might end up representing the most important change at quarterback for the Eagles since Donovan McNabb was drafted second overall in 1999.

Even a defense that at times looked like a broken dam in 2013 appears to be upgraded for 2014.

The expectations for the Birds are a bit more ambitious this year as they get set for their season opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field.

But predicting an outcome for a season is always a tricky proposition, the success of which usually has little to do with any special insight.

If you put the emotions aside, whether they are positive or negative, a rational analysis of the variables will put you right about where you need to be.

The over-under win total for the Eagles set in Las Vegas in mid-August was nine, which was third highest in the NFC behind the Seahawks and 49ers.

I'll take the over and say the Eagles finish 10-6, repeat as NFC East champions and, yes, win a playoff game.

It comes down to a few things: Kelly staying ahead of the curve with his offense; Foles staying on course to become the franchise quarterback he has given hope that he is; and the defense - if not being lights-out - at least being solid enough for the offense to overcome most opponents.

I think all of those things will happen.

A year ago, everyone with the exception of Kelly was talking about how his schemes could revolutionize the way offense was played in the NFL.

Despite losing Vick and having to go with Foles - who everybody except Kelly said did not have the skill set to maximize the offense - finished second in the NFL in total offense (417.2 yards) and fourth in total points (442). It is correct to assume that defensive coordinators now have a book on Kelly and will make adjustments. It is not correct, however, to assume the book they are reading is the updated edition.

Kelly hasn't been sitting on his thumbs. He, too, has been making adjustments and coming up with new wrinkles.

It also should be taken into account that last year was primarily about installing schemes while this season's preparation has been more about fine-tuning them.

Foles, LeSean McCoy and the dominating offensive line are more comfortable with their roles in the system than in 2013 - when McCoy led the NFL in rushing and yards from scrimmage.

And while it is true that the still-debated release of wide receiver DeSean Jackson seems to have eliminated a big-play aspect, the return of receiver Jeremy Maclin, the expected emergence of second-year tight end Zach Ertz and the addition of veteran all-purpose back Darren Sproles could mean an overall upgrade in weapons for Foles.

Foles, like the quarterback on any team, is the key.

It would be unreasonable to expect Foles to repeat a season where he led the NFL in passer rating (119.2) - the third best in history - and had the best touchdown-interception ratio (27-2) in history.

It is not unreasonable to believe Foles, after his first full offseason of reps as the starting quarterback, could continue to play at a level that would return him to the Pro Bowl.

It depends on whether you believe he has the stuff of a franchise quarterback.

I do.

The defense remains the biggest question mark. It is improved because better players have been added and everyone is more familiar with the 3-4 scheme of coordinator Billy Davis.

But what does that mean to a unit that ranked 31st in total defense and fourth in most points allowed?

While it would be nice for the defense to suddenly be elite, the truth is that it only has to be good enough to allow the offense to score more points in most games.

Seven games on the Eagles' schedule are against teams ranked in the bottom third in points per game: St. Louis (21st), Washington (23rd), New York Giants (28th), Houston (31st) and Jacksonville (32nd).

Dallas, Green Bay and Seattle were in the top 10 scoring offenses, but the Cowboys had the worst scoring defense and Green Bay the eighth worst.

San Francisco and Arizona are the only teams on the Eagles' schedule who ranked in the top half of the NFL in both scoring offense and defense in 2013.

Looking at the final eight games of 2013 when Foles was unquestionably entrenched as the starter, the Eagles averaged 33.25 points a game.

The odds say they will score a lot of points in most games, which will provide a cushion for the defense.

On paper, the games against San Francisco, Arizona and Seattle might be the only ones in which the Eagles offense might not be able to score enough points to win unless the defense plays lights-out.

To me, even against what looks like a tougher schedule, that means nothing less than a repeat of 10 victories and a NFC East title.

Columns: ph.ly/Smallwood

Blog: ph.ly/DNL