Eagles' draft options are endless

In football, there are only three possible outcomes: Win, lose or draw.

In the draft, the possibilities are endless, even for the Eagles, who will select fourth overall when the NFL's annual roll of the dice commences Thursday night.

Will they select Central Michigan tackle Eric Fisher? Will he even be there? Will Chip Kelly choose his former player, Oregon outside linebacker Dion Jordan, with his first pick as Eagles coach? Or will he choose Oklahoma tackle Lane Johnson? Or maybe Utah defensive tackle Star Lotulelei?

Will Kelly and general manager Howie Roseman take the best available player on their board, or will they trade down in the first round? And, if so, how many prospects does that bring into play? What if they load up on picks in the second and third rounds - considered by many to be the strength of this draft - and don't even select a player on the first day?

Those are all realistic scenarios and enough to make even the most even-keeled Eagles fan's head spin.

But not Kelly.

"I get bored," Kelly said last week when asked about the various scenarios the team has laid out in the leadup to the draft. "To be honest with you, when they give you a million different scenarios, I think the same thing in the back of my mind: 'What if one team will trade 17 picks for us?' You would say that would never happen. But the New Orleans Saints did it for Ricky Williams."

Well, it wasn't quite 17 picks. It was eight that Mike Ditka gave up for the Texas running back.

Kelly's mention of Williams presents an easy transition to the 1999 draft and the last time the Eagles had a top-five pick. Andy Reid, with his first pick as Eagles coach, selected quarterback Donovan McNabb, of course, to the dismay of a gaggle of booing fans who traveled to New York and wanted Williams.

There isn't a selection Kelly could make that would produce such a reaction - unless he chose Geno Smith. Eagles fans have been vocal on talk radio, Internet message boards, and beat reporters' Twitter accounts about not wanting the West Virginia quarterback.

But what if Smith dropped into the latter part of the first round? Would the Eagles consider moving up from the third pick in the second round?

First, there's the No. 4 pick. Barring a trade down, the Eagles will likely select a lineman. Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Oakland select ahead of the Birds. Andy Reid, with his first pick as Chiefs coach, is expected to take either Texas A&M tackle Luke Joeckel or Fisher.

The selections after the Chiefs' is anyone's guess, although the three most likely scenarios of who will go before the Eagles pick are:

Joeckel, Fisher (or vice versa), and Florida defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd (to the Raiders).

Joeckel, Jordan, or Fisher (or vice versa).

Joeckel or Fisher, Jordan, and Floyd.

In the first scenario, the Eagles would likely have Jordan, Johnson, and Lotulelei next to choose from. Jordan has great upside but is slight and would have to add considerable weight to be an NFL pass rusher. Johnson has played only tackle for two seasons but has one-in-a-generation athleticism. Lotulelei is versatile but may not project as an every-down lineman.

If Joeckel, Fisher, and Jordan were off the board, as in the second scenario, the Eagles would have Floyd, Johnson, and Lotulelei as options. They could have some other prospects on their radar, however. There has been recent buzz about the Eagles' interest in Louisiana State pass-rusher Barkevious Mingo. Brigham Young defensive end Ziggy Ansah is expected to go in the top 10.

The last scenario would seem to be the ideal one. If Joeckel or Fisher were to fall to No. 4, the Eagles would have their starting right tackle and conceivably their future left tackle. The only other likely possibility there would be to trade the pick to a team that desperately needed a tackle and would make an offer the Eagles couldn't refuse.

Nearly every team in the top 10 has reportedly entertained the idea of trading down. The Eagles have already called at least two GMs about having a deal in place in case they don't like their options, two NFL sources told The Inquirer.

The Browns, now run by former Eagles president Joe Banner, have also reportedly put the No. 6 pick on the market. The Raiders are aggressively shopping the No. 3 pick, according to multiple league sources. Their likely trade partners are the Lions (No. 5) and the Cardinals (No. 7), two teams that could be interested in leapfrogging the Eagles for Johnson.

The Eagles may not even want Johnson that high and could work out a more favorable deal with Arizona, which would need to move up only three spots instead of four to get the Oklahoma tackle. At least three other teams in the top 15 - the Chargers at No. 11, the Dolphins at No. 12, and the New Orleans Saints at No. 15 - have the ammunition and the need to deal with the Birds.

The possibilities are endless.

The likelihood of the player the Eagles end up drafting having an impact: 50 percent.