Contrary to popular belief, this year's QB crop has potential

YOU ALL CAN stop fretting about the possibility of the Eagles' selecting Geno Smith with the fourth pick in the draft on Thursday night.

Not gonna happen.

For the first time in 13 years, a quarterback almost certainly won't be one of the first five players taken. For the first time in just as many years, one might not even go in the top 10.

Smith and the rest of the 2013 quarterback class have taken more criticism the last 3 months than Kim Kardashian's maternity outfits.

NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock set the tone 3 weeks ago when his frustration over the inconsistency of this year's quarterback class prompted him to say he "can't stand" this group.

Yet, here's the thing. Despite the absence of a top-of-the-draft headliner like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III last year, it's entirely possible that as many as nine quarterbacks could be taken in the first three rounds of this week's draft.

Know when the last time that happened was?

Try never.

"I've said from Day 1 that this quarterback class is better than everybody thinks it is," said Bills general manager Buddy Nix, whose team owns the eighth pick in the draft. "It's better than the publicity that they get. And by that, I mean there's about five or six of those guys, maybe seven, that do a lot of things good and do them good enough to win.

"Two or three of these guys will be franchise quarterbacks. I believe that. You look back at last year and the year before. I mean Russell Wilson [third-round pick by Seattle last year] and Colin Kaepernick [second round by San Francisco in 2011], right now, if you were drafting, you'd take them first. So the jury's still out on this group."

Steve Clarkson, a personal quarterbacks coach who has worked with top several top NFL players and many of this draft's top passers, including USC's Matt Barkley, Florida State's EJ Manuel and Arizona's Matt Scott, said he thinks the right-out-of-the-gate success last year of rookies such as Luck, Griffin and Wilson has affected people's perception of this year's group.

"The problem with this class is they're being measured against last year's class. And last year's class is being measured with 1983," he said.

"But I think there's some true value in this year's class. The best thing about this class is, even though people will talk about Geno being the No. 1 guy, there are four guys [who are comparable in talent]. There's not much that separates them.

"Going into last year's draft, you had two guys who, at least on paper, were way ahead of everybody else. Nobody would have predicted what Russell Wilson did. And not many people would have predicted that Ryan Tannehill would have played as well as he did as a rookie."

Four quarterbacks were taken in the first round last year - Luck (first by Indianapolis), Griffin (second by Washington), Tannehill (eighth by Miami) and Brandon Weeden (22nd by Cleveland).

While Smith could end up being the only quarterback taken in the first round Thursday, Barkley, Manuel and Syracuse's Ryan Nassib all figure to be gone 40 picks into the draft.

Five other quarterbacks who could go in the second and third rounds: Mike Glennon (North Carolina State), Tyler Bray (Tennessee), Tyler Wilson (Arkansas), Landry Jones (Oklahoma) and Scott.

Last year, seven quarterbacks went in the first three rounds, which equaled the most ever taken in those rounds.

"You look at last year and expectations are out of whack on [quarterback] groups going forward, because last year was a unique group," Eagles general manager Howie Roseman said.

"When you look back at that group, it's going to be one that people look at as a rare opportunity in the NFL. Certainly at the top. When you take out last year and compare [this year] to other years, it falls more in line."

I expect the Eagles to select a quarterback at some point in the draft, possibly as early as the second round. Michael Vick turns 33 in June and is a bad fit for Chip Kelly's uptempo, get-the-ball-out-quickly offense.

Nick Foles is a pocket passer who doesn't really have enough speed to run the read option. And while Kelly certainly could build an offense around Foles, I think in the long term he'd prefer to have someone with a little more mobility.

Mayock rates Smith, who threw 42 touchdown passes and only six interceptions for West Virginia last season and ran the fastest 40 time (4.59) of any quarterback at the scouting combine in February, as his top quarterback. But Mayock said he wouldn't take him any earlier than the bottom third of the first round.

"He has all of the components of a franchise quarterback, but he was not consistent enough on tape for me," Mayock said. "He doesn't have very good pocket awareness. He had something like 32 career fumbles at West Virginia.

"His deep-ball accuracy is erratic. I mean, really erratic. Guys wide-open [that he missed]. Six to eight touchdowns that he threw away this year. For me, there's a bunch of different red flags, and it doesn't add up to a top-10 quarterback. Or even top-20."

Most draft analysts rate Barkley as the second-best quarterback in this class. But he's a pocket passer in a year when everybody is looking for the next Wilson or Kaepernick or RGIII.

Which brings us to Manuel, the 6-4 1/2, 237-pounder Kelly recruited when he was at Oregon.

"I like EJ a lot," said former NFL coach and current ESPN "Monday Night Football" analyst Jon Gruden. "You can call just about any scheme you want to call with him. I've seen him run the direct quarterback runs. He's a presence inside the 10-yard line much like Cam Newton in Carolina. I've seen him run various option plays, and we know that's certainly a major point of emphasis in the league right now.

"He brings a lot to the table from an athletic standpoint. I think he can improve as a passer. I think he can improve his protection awareness and understanding. I don't think he's anywhere near to a finished product, but I do think he has a big upside. He has a tremendous skill set that allows him to do a lot of different things.

"If you're with a creative coach, look out."

Well, they supposedly don't come any more creative than Kelly.

"EJ is by far the most athletic guy in this group," Clarkson said. "He has a very powerful arm. He's very charismatic, and that goes a long way in the huddle.

"His throwing motion is quick. He throws a sophisticated ball, meaning he can throw it hard but he also can throw it with touch. I think he's got a huge ceiling. I think that's what people like about him the most. He's probably the closest thing to Kaepernick, with a better release, than anybody in this draft."

On Twitter: @Pdomo

Blog: eagletarian.com