Ravens' Flacco won't rise to the challege against the Chargers

WE'LL CALL IT the Joe Flacco challenge. Instead of firing off a spiteful email that disputes everything you are about to read, I'd encourage you to make some money off of the shortsightedness of folks like myself and the Vegas oddsmakers who earlier this week made the 8-2 Ravens a 1 1/2-point underdog against the 4-6 Chargers in San Diego. Nothing says "I told you so" like lighting a cigar with a $100 bill while wearing a Flacco jersey.

In the meantime, I'll detail the reason why I'm ranking the Ravens near the top of my pool picks for Week 12. In short, Flacco is not an elite NFL quarterback, and when you take a less-than-elite QB outside his comfort zone, he has a tendency to struggle. You can talk all you want about Flacco's 52-22 record as a starter, but you cannot ignore the fact that the mark is bolstered by a ridiculous 32-5 performance at home.

This week, the Ravens happen to be playing on the road, where Flacco not only is an ordinary 20-17 in his career, but where his quarterback rating is an ugly 79.9. The road is a place where the Ravens received a 43-13 thumping from the Texans, where they eked out a 9-6 win over the Chiefs (now 1-9), and where they managed to become one of only three teams to lose to the Eagles. It is also a place where, last December, Philip Rivers and the Chargers handed Baltimore a 34-14 loss. Heading into that game, Baltimore was 10-3 with a four-game winning streak, while the Chargers were 6-7. The Ravens were a one-point favorite. Hopefully, you did not bet on them.

The Chargers are not exactly a confidence-inspiring team. They have lost six of their last eight, with their only two victories in the stretch coming against that brutal Chiefs team. That said, San Diego has faced Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning (twice). This week, I expect Flacco to show once again he does not belong with those names.

The past couple of weeks have not been kind to the teams I've chosen to highlight in this column, with the Raiders making me hang my head in shame in Week 11. But I'm the kind of guy who keeps betting on black, and this week I can't help myself from doing it again, as Oakland is getting 7 1/2 points on the road against a Bengals team that I refuse to believe is as good as it has played in consecutive wins over the Giants and the Chiefs. (Side note: Is there a team in the league that has not beaten the Chiefs?) The 7 1/2-point line is the ultimate late-cover line, which worked to my advantage last week with the Chargers scoring a late touchdown against the Broncos. Maybe the Bengals' suspect run defense can cure a Raiders running game that has struggled to find a rhythm this season.

One of my weaknesses in prognosticating is an unwillingness to admit a team is better or worse than I have been giving it credit for. I can only hope that the Buccaneers and Falcons are not two of those teams, because I'm not going to talk myself out of taking Atlanta minus-1 against a Tampa Bay team that has won four straight. Doug Martin can pound the ball on the ground, and that gives me some concern against a Falcons defense that has allowed 148 and 137 rushing yards, respectively, in the last 2 weeks against the Saints and the Cardinals. But it isn't the Bucs' offense that I abhor. It is a defense that has allowed 400-plus yards five times this season. While Tampa Bay has won five of six after a 1-3 start, the only quarterback the Bucs have beaten who does not rank near the bottom of the NFL is Rivers, and he threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns in the Bucs' 34-24 win in Week 10. Drew Brees and the Saints beat Tampa Bay, 35-28, in Week 7 and Eli Manning and the Giants beat them, 41-34, in Week 2. I'm betting Sunday's game against the Falcons finishes with a similar final score. And that means an Atlanta cover.

I cannot in good conscience advise anybody to bet any game involving the Eagles the rest of the season, so I'll run down the rest of my pool picks: Colts (-3 vs. Bills), Broncos (-10 1/2 at Chiefs), Giants (-3 vs. Packers), 49ers (-2 at New Orleans), Seattle (-3 at Miami).

Email: dmurphy.com

" @HighCheese