Don't expect rookies to achieve instant stardom

Most seasons, your best bet when assessing the fantasy prospects of a rookie class is to focus on the running backs. First-year quarterbacks should be avoided like the plague, or synchronized swimming. Rookie receivers occasionally achieve fantasy stardom, but it usually takes them a while to ramp up.

Last season was no ordinary season. Injuries and ineffectiveness plagued Mark Ingram and Daniel Thomas, the cream of the 2011 running back crop. The top performer at the position was Roy Helu, who scraped his way into the top 30, thanks to a late-season surge.

Meanwhile, Cam Newton served notice that his transition from college would be seamless with a colossal 422-yard, three-total-touchdown debut. A.J. Green reeled in a 41-yard TD on his first reception, and added 124 yards and another score in Week 2. Julio Jones topped 100 yards receiving in three of his first six games as a Falcon.

Those results were all the more shocking given the lockout-shortened offseason and abbreviated training camps.

So what are we to make of this year's freshman prospects? Will we see a return to ground-based normalcy, or perhaps more aerial fireworks from the most highly touted pair of rookie passers to enter the NFL in years? Are any receivers worth a late-round flier?

Remember that when evaluating the fantasy potential of any rookie, talent is rarely the most decisive factor. More relevant is the opportunity presented to the player, which is also a multifaceted equation.

Does the newcomer have a clear path to a starting gig? Will he join a high-powered offense, or one whose punter is its most lethal weapon? Is he healthy heading into the season, or has he missed invaluable preseason work because of nagging injuries?

Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins: Newton forever raised the bar, and the pressure, on rookie quarterbacks to perform at a high level, even when they join lousy teams. Like Newton, RG3 will be as dangerous on the run as he is when passing, so he should pad his fantasy value with rushing scores.

Trent Richardson, RB, Browns: Until he underwent a "minor" arthroscopic procedure on his left knee, Richardson was soaring to ridiculous heights on mock draft boards. Though the Browns are optimistic the draft's third overall pick will be ready for the season opener, the red flags are flapping briskly in Cleveland.

Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers: The former Boise State star is poised to secure a starting job in a healthier offense. Only LeGarrette Blount stands in his way, but Martin, a physical runner with excellent receiving skills, already appears to have landed the lead role.

Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos: With Knowshon Moreno steadily underperforming his way out of Denver, Hillman is expected to be the primary backup to Willis McGahee, one of the least secure starting backs in the league. Hillman has drawn comparisons to the multitalented Darren Sproles.

David Wilson, RB, Giants: The first-round pick from Virginia Tech is a talented runner who because of the departure of Brandon Jacobs will get his chances to shine.

Isaiah Pead, RB, Rams: Drafted to be Steven Jackson's heir apparent, the rookie will start off as the team's change-of-pace back. But keep in mind, Jackson has played all 16 games just twice in his eight-year career.

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts: He'll start from day one for a humbled team in desperate need of offensive firepower. Luck seems destined for greatness, but it will take him longer to achieve fantasy relevance than fellow draftee Griffin, simply because he doesn't figure to score much as a rusher.

Brandon Weeden, QB, Browns: The starting quarterback for the Browns wouldn't be draft-worthy even if he weren't a rookie.

Robert Turbin, RB, Seahawks: It now appears that Marshawn Lynch will not face suspension this season for his recent DUI arrest, so Turbin's impact in 2012 will be limited, barring an injury to the starter.

Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars: On the plus side, Blackmon is a supremely talented athlete with good hands and tons of upside. Then there are the negatives: A second DUI arrest in June that could yield a season-opening suspension, a run-centric offense plagued by erratic quarterback play, and the arrival of red-zone beast Laurent Robinson.

Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals: Though still listed behind Andre Roberts on the depth chart, Floyd is expected to win the starting job sooner than later. The rookie has a history of off-field issues, but his greatest obstacle could prove to be dismal quarterbacking.

Kendall Wright, WR, Titans: Griffin's favorite target at Baylor should be scooped up in dynasty leagues, but don't count on Wright to offer any consistency in his rookie year. It will take him some time to work his way up the pecking order, and Tennessee isn't exactly an aerial powerhouse.

Coby Fleener, TE, Colts: Fleener will benefit from instant chemistry with fellow Stanford teammate Luck. Expected to join the starting lineup from day one, Fleener could easily be the most targeted receiver on the field in the early going.

Randy Bullock, K, Texans: With only Shayne Graham to beat, Bullock is the odds-on favorite to win the kicking duties for the high-octane Houston offense.