John Smallwood: Super Bowl? First you have to make the playoffs

IT FELT a little strange this weekend watching all four NFL wild-card games in my home.

That has rarely happened for me over the past 13 years.

On all but a few occasions, I've either been at a wild-card game involving the Eagles or one involving a team that could possibly be the Eagles' opponent in the divisional round.

That's a tribute to the success Andy Reid has had as the head coach. Since taking over in 1999, Reid has made the postseason nine times - with six involving wild-card games.

So to watch the Saints beat the Lions and the Giants beat the Falcons from home, knowing that there was no vested Eagles interest, was different for me.

It wasn't much fun. I found it easy to pay attention to other things besides football.

And that's why I think those who have taken Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie's proclamation, declaration, whatever you want to call it, that Reid is under some kind of "Super Bowl-or-Bust" doctrine for 2012 read Lurie wrong.

No, the Eagles owner, who took a chance on Reid, then a quarterbacks coach with the Green Bay Packers, didn't give him a vote of confidence beyond next season.

But, "win it all or hit the road?" I didn't get that from Lurie.

"If I didn't think next year would be substantially better, I would be up here announcing a coaching change or other changes," is all Lurie said.

Yes, he added, "It's not enough just to make the playoffs. That's not my goal, that's not our fans' goal. It is a precursor . . . "

Ah, but a precursor to what?

I think that's where what Lurie said and what a lot of people interpreted Lurie as saying go in slightly separate directions.

In all reasonable logic, making the playoffs is a "precursor" only to winning a Super Bowl, and nothing less. It is the only thing that Reid has not accomplished in his 13-year tenure.

If making the playoffs is only a "precursor" to winning a Super Bowl, Lurie already has had nine opportunities to figure out that Reid doesn't have the stuff to take the Birds over the top.

Reid has lost two NFC Championship Games at home and lost a third in Arizona when the Eagles were a favorite. Nine trips to the playoffs and five trips to the NFC Championship Game under Reid have produced no championships and just one trip to the Super Bowl.

How much "real cursing" do Eagle fans have to do before Lurie realizes what they already know?

Reid cannot win the big prize in Philadelphia. That's not to diminish his accomplishments or say that he is a bad coach. He might very well still become a Super Bowl-winning coach; it's just not going to happen here.

Lurie wants to win a Super Bowl, but he also wants the validation of having it delivered to him by the coach he discovered who hardly anyone else was looking at. That's why Reid won't actually be on the hot seat in 2012 any more than he has been for the past three seasons when he has failed to win a playoff game.

Let's look at this "substantially better" thing logically.

When you're coming off an 8-8 season, when you had to scramble to beat four mutts down the stretch just to finish .500, what is substantially better for 2012?

We can all agree that if next year the Eagles get into the playoffs as a wild card and promptly lose, Lurie will eat the last year of Reid's contract. If the Eagles win the NFC East, win in the wild-card round and then lose in the divisional playoffs, it's probably safe to also say the Reid Era will end.

But what if the Birds finish 13-3 or 12-4 and advance to the NFC Championship Game before losing on the road to a superior Green Bay or New Orleans team?

What if they reach the Super Bowl for the second time under Reid but lose again?

What if that happens while quarterback Michael Vick, who would still be under contract, rebounds to have a Pro Bowl season under Reid's guidance?

Does anyone think that Lurie would then step to a microphone and say, "That's all nice but it was just the precursor to the ultimate goal so Andy has still got to go?"

I don't.

In fact, if the Eagles won 11 or 12 games with a schedule that includes seven playoff teams and lost the NFC Championship on the road, I'd question why Lurie would let Reid go into 2013 as a lame-duck coach rather than giving him some kind of extension.

Nothing short of Reid getting fired would have satisfied a great number of Eagles fans, but they at least took solace in the fact that Lurie appeared to put Reid under some "Lombardi Trophy-or-Bust" mantra.

As they say, appearances can be deceiving.