NFL, players on the verge of a lockout

CHANTILLY, Va. - The NFL and its players' union lurched toward a lockout Wednesday, adding to the tension around a sport that generates $9 billion in revenue and has established itself as the king of American sports, if not all entertainment.

The collective bargaining agreement between the two sides expires at the end of Thursday, and despite another round of talks and meetings Wednesday, all signs point to the owners initiating a lockout when the CBA is up.

That would inch the league closer to the fans' doomsday scenario: the delay or cancellation of regular-season games, a Sunday staple.

Most of the owners who arrived at a hotel here for a leaguewide meeting left town afterward. Further discussions are in the hands of the owners' 10-man labor committee, and even many of them headed to their homes Wednesday night, deciding against staying for more mediated talks in Washington that night and Thursday morning.

"The clubs were updated on the negotiations and the mediation process today. There were no decisions made, no action was taken," NFL spokesman Greg Aiello said after the roughly three-hour owners' meeting.

The two sides could agree to temporarily extend the existing CBA to allow for more talks before a lockout, but at this point that would appear to be a cosmetic move, as there are few signs of a deal materializing soon.

The players and owners met again with a federal mediator Wednesday morning, but said little about the session. NFL executives returned to the federal mediator's office later in the evening.

Without an extension or a stunning last-minute deal, NFL business will grind to a halt when Friday begins. The league's 10-owner labor committee has the authority to begin a lockout if there is no deal.

"Our commitment is to get an agreement, a fair agreement that's good for both sides as soon as possible, without any disruption to the season," Aiello said.

The NFL Players Association did not immediately comment Wednesday night, although Saints quarterback Drew Brees, a member of the NFLPA executive board, posted on Twitter: "Players are in DC ready to get a deal done."

Despite the spotlight on the Thursday night deadline, the prospect of lost games is still months away. Forecasting negotiations is difficult, but based on past sports labor spats, several sports business experts expect the two sides to reach a deal before impinging on the season and inflicting real damage on the league.

"The major disruptions and work stoppages in league operations happen when one side is seeking a sea change: There is one side arguing that the current system is broken and that they are better off missing part of the season to get the system fixed," said Gabe Feldman, director of the Tulane Sports Law program. "I just don't think the [NFL] owners or the players see the system as broken."

Instead, he and others argued that the owners are seeking a shift within the existing, profitable system.

At stake for the two sides is the way they divide $9 billion in annual revenue, the most of any American sport. The owners want $2 billion in "expense credits" that help pay for stadiums and other investments in the game. Currently they receive $1 billion in credits before the rest of the money is split: 60 percent for the players and 40 percent for the owners. The owners say they need more credits for investments that make money for everyone. The players have balked at giving up more of their share, especially as the owners push to increase the regular season to 18 games, from 16.

The expanded regular season is one of several side issues that also includes the implementation of a rookie wage scale and player demands for improved post-career health benefits. As in just about any business dispute, though, the situation hinges on money.

"The primary issue is the revenue split, and everything else is ancillary to that," said Andrew Brandt, a former Packers vice president and Eagles consultant who is now an NFL business analyst for ESPN.

The regular season is still six months away, so there is little motivation for a compromise now. That probably means haggling into the summer, with a deal growing more likely as regular-season preparations near.

"Then there's urgency," said Scott Rosner, a sports business professor at Penn's Wharton School.

First, Feldman said the two sides were likely to pursue their legal options.

"The next steps will be seeing who can exercise their economic weapons to gain the most leverage," Feldman said.

The NFLPA is widely expected to decertify Thursday, a move that would give players the ability to bring an antitrust suit against the owners, a tactic that helped them win free agency in the early 1990s. The players are also trying to block provisions that would let the owners collect $4 billion in TV money even if games are canceled, and won a significant court ruling on the issue this week.

The NFL has filed a complaint charging the union with failing to bargain in good faith.

The league has not missed games because of a labor battle since a 1987 players' strike, helping to boost its prominence as the other major sports have stubbed their toes, or worse, in ugly contract talks.

For now, the financial impacts of a lockout are relatively minor for both players and owners. Players must buy their own health insurance, for example; owners might miss out on sponsorships with wary potential partners.

Some teams have begun laying off staff and slashing coaches' pay, but the Eagles have said they plan to pay their employees in full for some time.

Much more significant harm, and pressure, arrives in September. If games are lost, the NFL would lose $400 million a week, the league has said. Players would lose their in-season game checks, which provide almost all of their pay.

Owners, including the Eagles' Jeffrey Lurie, weren't talking about those issues as they left their meeting Wednesday, citing a federal mediator's request to keep negotiations private. Instead, Patriots owner Bob Kraft tried to find a hotel exit, and with reporters hovering nearby, asked an aide, "Do you know where it is we're going?"

It's a question many fans will be asking, possibly for months.