The Smart Money: Betting on Packers vs. Steelers - vs. Jrue Holiday

 With the year's single biggest sports wagering day looming this weekend, it turns out that it's often the many little games within the Big Game that keep fans riveted to the action.

Handicapping whether Pittsburgh or Green Bay, which is currently a 21/2-point favorite, will prevail in the Super Bowl on Sunday is merely the beginning of the battle of wits.

Instead, what many bettors will be trying to divine are a host of betting propositions - the so-called prop bets - such as whether Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will throw a touchdown pass in the first quarter, or how many receiving yards Steelers tight end Heath Miller will get.

Or, what will occur first: a Green Bay score or punt? Or, how will the game's first turnover occur: fumble or interception?

Or, more exotically: Will the largest lead held by either team be greater than the points scored by Sixers guard Jrue Holiday against the New York Knicks on Sunday?

All those props are among the more than 300 wagers being offered at the Las Vegas Hilton, where vice president of sports and race book operations Jay Kornegay and his team of oddsmakers are often credited with popularizing the concept of Super Bowl prop bets, back when Kornegay was running the sports book at the Imperial Palace in Las Vegas.

"It started in the early 1990s, when we had a string of really boring Super Bowls and we were looking for ways to keep our customers entertained beyond the third quarter," Kornegay said.

The concept of prop bets picked up steam with the San Francisco-San Diego Super Bowl in January 1995, in which the 49ers were at least an 18-point favorite, dooming the game to being a wagering dud. To pump up the action, Kornegay and crew dreamed up the laundry list of props that seem to grow annually.

Now, with a fistful of prop bets, a bettor can have a rooting interesting in virtually every play - and, sometimes, even beyond the game itself.

"A lot of people point to the bets that mix sports. We have Phil Mickelson and LeBron James in there this year" as well as Holiday, Kornegay said. "But the more interesting ones, I think, are where the prop bet is tied to how a person feels about the game itself.

"For instance, the over-under on the rushing yardage for [Pittsburgh running back Rashard] Mendenhall. If you like the over [the target is 811/2 yards], you probably like the Steelers."

The heavy wagering will begin Friday - but, so far, the Packers have been favored, with the line seesawing between two and 21/2.

"The only real movement has been in the over-under [the total points scored by the teams] - with smart money taking the under - and that brought the line down from 46 to 441/2," said Caesars Palace sports analyst Todd Fuhrman.

Public money that arrives late is expected to be on the Packers, but Fuhrman said that bookmakers will resist moving the line to three points, because if the game were to end with Green Bay winning by a field goal, all the late bets would be a push, and the early Packers money would get paid off.

Right now, bookmakers are rooting for the Packers to win by a point, which would foil both Green Bay bettors giving the points as well as Steelers backers, who are currently taking the money line and getting an edge of $115 to $125 on a $100 bet.

And now, the football season's final pick:

Pittsburgh vs. Green Bay (minus-21/2, 441/2 O/U). The public loves to bet on offense, but the old adage remains true. Defense wins championships. And although the belief here is that Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is the best in the business, the Packers' defense is younger, faster, healthier, and starting to peak. Green Bay's offense will control Pittsburgh's zone blitz with quick routes, and Rodgers will be more difficult to confound than either of the quarterbacks the Steelers have challenged in the playoffs so far.

Meanwhile, Green Bay's defense is stout enough to thwart Mendenhall; swift enough to defeat Pittsburgh's pass protection; and strong enough to bring down Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger before he can get outside the tackle box, where he's best at making plays. There's also an assumption here that the public will bet up the over-under to its original level, meaning 46 to 461/2 points.

Pick: Packers, plus the under.