The gamblers like Green Bay

Green Bay may have needed a win in the final week of the regular season to slip into the NFL playoffs as a sixth seed, but after two impressive postseason road victories, the Packers have become the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl as Sunday's conference championship games approach.

At Caesars Palace, Green Bay is barely better than even money, 6-5, to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy, as well as a 31/2-point favorite to win the NFC title in Chicago. There are somewhat longer odds elsewhere - for instance, MGM Resorts casinos have the Packers at 7-5 to go all the way and Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which provides wagering odds to casinos, posted Green Bay at 8-5 on Wednesday.

However, in each case, Green Bay was the Super Bowl favorite, followed by Pittsburgh as the consensus No. 2 (in the 8-5 to 2-1 range).

The Steelers are a 31/2-point home favorite in the AFC championship game against the New York Jets. Underdogs New York and Chicago have been swapping third and fourth on the Super Bowl odds list.

"ESPN has been talking this up as Aaron Rodgers' coming-out party," Caesars Palace sports analyst Todd Fuhrman said of the hot Packers quarterback. "And the public has bought into that mantra."

As a huge public betting favorite, Green Bay has hammered bookmakers with playoff wins over the Eagles and Atlanta. In both games, the Packers went off as a slim underdog and sent their backers to the cashiers' window with outright wins.

"Yeah, Green Bay has been beating me down into becoming a believer," said Jay Rood, director of sports and race book operations for MGM Resorts casinos.

For Sunday, Green Bay bettors not only have to lay the 31/2 points but, in some cases, also must pay a slightly higher commission on their wagers. Normally, a bettor has to risk $11 to win $10, but some books are asking for slightly higher vigorish (the commission on a bet) - in this case, $12 to win $10.

No one, though, expects the betting public to ease off the Packers at this point.

In the AFC championship game, the Steelers began as a four-point favorite in some books but have settled in at 31/2 points, and the betting traffic is expected to be fairly even between the two teams.

Interestingly, while bookmakers generally have been rooting against the Packers, some casinos have significant liability on the Bears as a Super Bowl futures bet. At the beginning of the season, Chicago - coming off a poor 2009 campaign - was as much as a 50-1 shot to win the Super Bowl, and now some Bears fans are just two wins away from cashing those tickets.

Green Bay at Chicago (plus-31/2, over-under 431/2). Rodgers has been the most impressive player of the postseason with six touchdown passes and no interceptions. He's been sacked just four times and has done an outstanding job of keeping plays alive even when opposing teams mount a pass rush. However, in the two regular-season games between the Bears and Packers this season, Green Bay scored a total of just 27 points. The Bears won the first at Soldier Field, 20-17, and the Packers took the second - a must-win Game 16 at Lambeau Field - 10-3. But the difference-maker Sunday could be the Green Bay defense. The Packers had 47 sacks in the regular season (tied for second in the NFL) and eight in the playoffs, and pass-rush pressure leads to turnovers. So both teams have tough defenses, and the footing at Soldier Field is likely to be poor.

Pick: Under. And less emphatically, the Packers giving the points.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh (minus-31/2, over-under 381/2). The Jets keep backing up coach Rex Ryan's bravado, but it'll be extremely difficult for them to maintain that intensity after emotional road wins in Indianapolis and New England. Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez needs to start fast, and he just hasn't shown the ability to do that. Even worse news for Sanchez is that Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is probably the most dangerous guy in black and gold. For the Jets to be in this game, they will need points from special teams or defense, probably both. That's a lot to ask against the Steelers, who always seem to win these kinds of games at home. Just ask the Baltimore Ravens.

Pick: Steelers, giving the points.