Rich Hofmann: McNabb looks to be on his way out

THE WIDE RECEIVER boasts. The Web site director spits. The Eagles get ready for another shot at the Dallas Cowboys and that is the trivia of another week at the carnival. The real subtext, though, concerns the quarterback and the question: Is this the last go-round for Donovan McNabb, the man who has done everything a Philadelphia quarterback can do except for the one thing that everybody so desperately wants him to do?

Personally, I think this is it. I think the club made that clear without saying it by giving McNabb a raise during the offseason but declining to extend his contract past the 2010 season. If they win a Super Bowl, of course, things change. If they get to another NFC Championship Game, and McNabb plays great, things change. Short of that, though, I think it's over.

Eleven years is a long time for a quarterback in one city. Five years is a long time for a fan base to be locked in perpetual debate about a quarterback - and that is how long Eagles fans have been burying me in a digital avalanche every time I type the guy's name, pro or con. Ever since that achingly slow fourth-quarter drive in the Super Bowl, when McNabb either did or did not throw up in the huddle, the town has been thoroughly divided. During the flash points, you can read the exhaustion on everyone's face, including McNabb's. Another flash point is coming, maybe as soon as tomorrow night. When this season is over, there is nothing that anybody will say concerning McNabb that hasn't already been said a million times. The answer here is not obvious until you look at the contract. McNabb has trade value only as long as he is under contract - which means you trade him now or you have to extend him for X-number of years after the season, with a new signing bonus and plenty of color and pageantry (and a likely one-way ticket out the door for Kevin Kolb, whom you have previously identified as your future).

If the Eagles lose tomorrow, does anybody really think they are going to do that? Or that they should?

I have tried to be as objective as I could be over the years - admittedly, with varying success. Sometimes I hear the really asinine criticism and lean more toward being McNabb's defense attorney. Other times, when he's having one of those worm-burner days, I am too harsh. Overall, I think his body of work suggests McNabb is the best quarterback in the history of the franchise. But I also have seen this team lose four conference championship games, three as a favorite - and he hasn't played a great, complete game in any of them, or in the Super Bowl.

Sometimes it is all about the quarterback in the NFL. Other than an NHL goaltender, the quarterback has more to say about winning and losing than any single player in professional sports. He just does. (And he is paid accordingly.)

Here is a stat list. It is of 10 elite quarterbacks playing today. They all play well when they win - McNabb's rating of 92.3 is seventh out of 10 - and they all play somewhere between less-well and badly when they lose. This is a list of their passer ratings in the playoff games that they lose.

Kurt Warner . . . 91.6

Drew Brees . . . 91.5

Tom Brady . . . 79.0

Tony Romo . . . 75.8

Ben Roethlisberger . . . 74.2

Peyton Manning . . . 70.6

Philip Rivers . . . 69.0

Brett Favre . . . 68.0

Donovan McNabb . . . 66.4

Eli Manning . . . 48.4

It is the heart of the matter with McNabb - that is, that he is almost never one of their better players in defeat. (Before last year's NFC title game, his rating in playoff losses was 58.9.) And then there is the question of comebacks. The people at the great pro-football-reference.com have compiled the numbers for fourth-quarter playoff comeback wins by quarterbacks. We'll take the same 10 guys and line them up based upon how often they have brought their teams back in the postseason. Brady is otherworldly, with six comeback wins out of nine playoff games that he trailed in the fourth quarter.

Tom Brady . . . 6-for-9

Kurt Warner . . . 3-for-6

Eli Manning . . . 3-for-6

Ben Roethlisberger . . . 2-for-4

Brett Favre . . . 2-for-12

Philip Rivers . . . 1-for-3

Donovan McNabb . . . 1-for-7

Peyton Manning . . . 1-for-8

Drew Brees . . . 0-for-2

Tony Romo . . . 0-for-2

These are just the facts in one of sports' toughest proving grounds, the NFL postseason. McNabb has won 60 percent of his playoff starts, a good number. Those are all big games, not just the ones he loses. Of course, the point spread suggests he had what was perceived to be the better team in 67 percent of those games. And around it goes.

I wouldn't insult McNabb and say that Kolb is better today, or anything like that - but Kolb is intriguing. He would be a more natural stylistic fit for the offense, with not as big an arm as McNabb but with more of a willingness to get the ball out quickly. But, yes, you would be gambling on his development here. There is no denying that.

If he never gets a chance, though, you never find out. This is a very young Eagles team. If it were an old core, about to collapse, I could see the logic of McNabb staying to the end - but that isn't the reality. If you sense ambivalence here, that is because there is ambivalence here. It has been 11 years, after all. But if it ends quickly, it just feels like this is it. *

Send e-mail to hofmanr@phillynews.com,

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