Rich Hofmann: Eagles offense: The half and the half-not
THE NUMBERS HAVE tumbled, like water over the rocks. Not much more than a year ago, it was possible to write a column about how the notion that Donovan McNabb and the Eagles couldn't win a close game at the end was really an unfair rap. (I know, because I wrote just such a column after the Eagles lost that shootout last year in Dallas.) Now, though, it is entirely fair.
According to the people at footballoutsiders.com, the average NFL quarterback during a period they studied brought his team back 41 percent of the time when his team trailed by eight or fewer points in the fourth quarter. McNabb was hanging at 39 percent for his career, essentially the league average, after that Dallas game. But he and the Eagles' offense have now failed eight consecutive times since that game.
McNabb and this offense are no longer essentially average. In close games, they are well below.
(Oh, you've heard?)
They confound you because there are days when McNabb and the Eagles look so good. Those are the days when they have a big talent advantage, or the days when Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg win the schematic battle. This offense front-runs like Secretariat.
It is the rest of the time, though, that leaves you groping for an explanation beyond the idea that they simply can't handle the close moments.
"It's kind of unique," Mornhinweg said. "I believe last year we were one of the very best in 2-minute, before the half, [and] I think this year we're one or two in 2-minute, before the half. We need to be as good at the end of the game in those situations as we are at the end of the half.
"Championship teams score a lot of points at the end of the half, so that's a good thing there and we need to be as good at the end of games."
Mornhinweg is a technician, and a fine one. He and Reid draw up some great stuff. He looks at it like a technician, like somebody looking at a machine, that it functions well in the pressure at the end of the half so it should be able to function well in the pressure of being behind in the fourth quarter.
But it hasn't translated. The situations have not been equivalent. Still, Mornhinweg presses on.
"We just need to be a little bit better, a little bit sharper at the end of the game," he said. "I've looked at all that in the offseason and during this season. We just have to play a little bit better late in the game."
(Oh, you've noticed?)
Most years lately, the Eagles' offense has been good in the first quarter and at its very best in the second quarter, and it is true this year, too. But it is true on an entirely different scale.
The Eagles are on a pace to smash franchise records as far as first-half scoring is concerned. Consider: They have already scored more points in the eight first halves this season than they scored in 16 first halves in 2005, the year we all received an advanced degree in sports hernias.
Even when you take out their three returns for touchdowns and limit it to strictly offensive numbers, the Eagles have averaged 6.8 offensive points per game in the first quarter and 10.4 in the second quarter. But then, after halftime, nothing - 4.5 points per game in the third quarter this season and 3.1 in the fourth quarter.
Now, some of it undoubtedly is because they just dialed things back and played keepaway with the big leads they held earlier in the season against some of the dregs of the league. As Mornhinweg said, "I think you have to look at it in depth, just a little bit, and I have. There are a couple of games there where I shut it down and there are a lot of reasons for that, so that's part of it. Then, we're getting into making up reasons and we need to get better that. Yeah, it's just that simple."
Some of what Mornhinweg says is true. Some of it is, as he says, just making up excuses. Because in the three losses - to New Orleans, Oakland and Dallas - which were all games where the Eagles were obviously trying to the end, they actually did a bit worse than their average: 4.5 points per game in the third quarter, only 2 points per game in the fourth quarter.
Every one of their numbers tumbles as the game progresses. Per Stats Inc., in their first 10 carries of the game, the Eagles average 4.9 yards per carry. In their next 10 carries, it plummets to 2.8 yards per carry. For McNabb, in his first 20 pass attempts of the game, he has completed 62 percent for 8.8 yards per attempt and 10 touchdowns. After that, he has completed 51 percent for 4.2 yards per attempt and no touchdowns.
Down, down, down the numbers go. And as they enter the part of the schedule that has stood out all along - four road games in 5 weeks, starting Sunday in San Diego - it is a trend that needs to reverse immediately.
"Normally, even the really good teams, and I think we are and we'll see down the stretch here, even really good teams need a come-from-behind [win] once or twice a season," Mornhinweg said. "Some do it even more, so that's a key."
(Oh, you've noticed?)
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