Maybe your mom used to make mock apple pie; you could find the recipe on boxes of Ritz crackers. It tasted pretty good, a lot like apple pie. But you knew as you ate it that you weren't really tasting apples, you were tasting ground-up crackers flavored with lemon juice and other stuff.

In the same way, even the most astute mock drafts are nothing like the real draft, and that might be even more true when the NFL's latest talent hunt commences at 3 p.m. today for Rounds 1 and 2, with 3 through 7 scheduled for tomorrow. Experts predict lots of trades; Eagles general manager Tom Heckert said this week that quite a few teams with high picks are looking to trade down, partly because signing high first-round picks has gotten so expensive and partly because this draft lacks a lot of no-doubt superstars. This year, more than ever, the guy taken 12th might turn out to be better than the guy taken fourth.

Most mock drafts don't factor in trades, which tends to make them useless. If a half-dozen teams start trading around, all the logic that went into the mock goes right out the window. ("Team X would really like a corner, but won't get one of the top ones here, so it will take a linebacker instead.") Once a team moves, the whole dynamic of what it is looking for can change.

The Eagles gave a good demonstration of this a year ago, when they traded out of the dregs of the first round (not a shock) to put themseleves in position to draft quarterback Kevin Kolb in the second (shock). Most experts thought the Birds had to get a safety or a corner in the first few rounds; it was a good year to do so. They had a few d-backs in mind, but didn't feel strongly enough about any of them to trade up from 26th, and the top safeties and corners all disappeared in a flurry, five of them taken from 18th through 24th.

Brian Dawkins, the Eagles' six-time Pro Bowl safety who turns 35 in October, doesn't expect to report for minicamp next week without being introduced to a fairly high-profile potential successor.

"I was surprised when they didn't get [a safety] high in the draft last year," Dawkins said this week. "I'll be shocked if they don't get one this year. They have to get one this year."

Of course, that isn't what Heckert says, in part because NFL teams never acknowledge such needs going into a draft, and in part because this isn't a great year to look for a difference-making safety. Lots of mocks have the Eagles taking Miami's Kenny Phillips, generally considered the best safety on the board, at 19. But many of them concede that Phillips is a reach at 19 and is being paired with the Eagles only because they need a safety. Draft experts will tell you taking a middling safety and leaving, say, a future Pro Bowl offensive lineman on the board, because you had a bigger immediate need for a safety, is not a sound philosophy.

Could the Eagles trade down from 19, draft Phillips at the end of the first or high in the second, and pick up an extra draft pick, as they did last year? (The third-rounder they got from Dallas ended up being Stewart Bradley, penciled in as this year's starting middle linebacker.) Sure, they could, but they enter draft weekend with 11 picks and more expected, assuming they finally consummate a Lito Sheppard trade. Trading down to pick up even more picks would be really odd.

More likely, assuming Sheppard gets dealt, is the Birds' burning one or more picks to move up from 19th, possibly to assure being able to draft one of the top offensive linemen - Virginia's Branden Albert, Pitt's Jeff Otah, Vanderbilt's Chris Williams or Boise State's Ryan Clady.

This is a deep draft for offensive tackles and for running backs, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Eagles get either fairly early. They don't absolutely have to draft a corner this year - although they certainly could and probably will. They pretty much do have to draft a safety. They'll get a wideout somewhere, and probably a defensive tackle. Defensive end?

Heckert seemed to emphasize this week that he sees free-agent signee Chris Clemons as a situational player. It's an important position where the Eagles never want to pass up a good player. It would be a surprise if they took a linebacker or a tight end the first day. They aren't drafting another quarterback, until maybe they get to their endless list of sixth- and seventh-round picks that they have to fill in somehow.

Lito Sheppard watch

All signs indicate the long-running Lito Sheppard trade drama should come to an end today.

A source close to the situation said last night that the Eagles expect to pick this morning among several offers for the two-time Pro Bowl cornerback. Despite Sheppard's visit to Tampa this week, the source said the Bucs are not at the forefront of the trade push, and that wideout Michael Clayton would not be part of any possible trade with the Bucs.

The New Orleans Saints are seriously involved in the bidding, a source confirmed. An Inquirer report said the Saints' offer of their second-round pick, 40th overall, was the highest draft selection being offered for Sheppard, but there also were rumors last night that the Saints' long-discussed bid for Giants tight end Jeremy Shockey was alive again, and that New Orleans' second-round pick would be part of that deal.

It would be hard to trade the same pick for two players. The Saints, who had the league's 30th-ranked pass defense last season, probably need a top corner more than they need a top tight end. But the Sheppard deal, of course, could involve many things other than the Saints' second-round pick. Although a benchmark of sorts was set when Atlanta traded corner DeAngelo Hall for a second and a fifth, a source said offers for Sheppard have involved players and opportunities to move up in the first round. *