Stats don't lie, even in fantasy

Week 10

Not too late but getting late early. The playoffs are the goal, and you need some tweaking lest you be tardy for the party. You don't need to get a new fantasy. You just need a fantasy that gets you. Here's the solution.

Players to target based on statistical evidence I've gathered over the first nine weeks of the season (or guys I like from here on out):

Ben Roethlisberger - OK, OK, so I once said I'd only start him if my commissioner gave points for pump fakes. Fact: I'm a dope. Fact: Chicks dig pump fakes. Fact: He's sixth in total points and averaging 23-32, 286, 2 a game this year (up from 17-29, 206, 1). I'll bet whoever has him drafted him as a second QB - which would suggest their first is startable - so Ben could be taken for the right price. If you're riding Eli, Cutler or Palmer, this is the plan for you.

Steven Jackson - There's a perception he's a disappointment. (Whisper: It's the touchdowns, right? Cough: It's probably the touchdowns. Overheard: How many touchdowns does he have?) If you're thinking it's the touchdowns, you're right. He's got one. He also has the same number of rushing yards as Adrian Peterson and a much sweeter schedule down the stretch. (a SEA, a CHI, a TENN, a HOU). Asking price will be high, but I'd definitely trade a No. 1 WR to have this No. 1 RB in crunch time.

Beanie Wells - Averaging more than 5 yards a carry the last three weeks and still not getting No. 1 touches. Can you imagine anything sadder? (A crying panda, maybe?) He doesn't face a top-10 rush defense for the rest of the month and as the No. 52-rated RB, he probably can be had for squadoosh.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh - More syllables than quality weeks so far, but all that does is make his current owner want to trade him more. Seattle has been throwing it a ton this season (only Arizona and New England are averaging more passes per game), and I'll take him as my second-half pick to click.

Mike Sims-Walker - 14th in WR points, but when you factor in that he didn't play in two games, he is only behind Vincent Jackson and Reggie Wayne in average per game. Still, he's started in only 45 percent of leagues and owned in 90 percent. I'd wait until next week to make the move – he's got Darrelle Revis on Sunday – but then bask in the sun of tri-named excellence.

Oh, and Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Chris Johnson, Peterson, MoJo Drew, Randy Moss, Vincent Jackson, and Reggie Wayne. If you had them, you'd be home by now.

Starters

Joe Flacco vs. Browns - Flacco: Strong enough for you to start, pH-balanced enough for you to win. He picked the bone clean (25-35, 342) in their first meeting.

Laurence Maroney vs. Colts – Starting a Beli-back is not something I'd normally recommend sober, but he's rushed for a touchdown in three straight games. Consecutively. In a row. Redundancy rules. And it's awesome, too.

Sitters

Any Bill. This includes Marshawn, T.O. and Dolla, Dolla, y'all.

Kevin Smith vs. Vikings' D – The Vikings haven't let up a 100-yard rusher in 31 games. Smith will be lucky to get to 50.

Fearless prediction

Chris Johnson for 250 vs. Buffalo. His 6.7 yards a carry are a Joey Lawrence Whoah. Buffalo's 175 yards allowed per game are a Keanu Reeves Whoa. This has the potential to be a 40-point week. If you're going up against Johnson I'd wear a helmet and get ready for some woe.

Stupid prediction

A quality fantasy involving a Redskin. A concussed Clinton Portis means Ladell Betts gets the carries. A Denver team on short rest that's given up 324 yards to RBs the last two weeks means whatever Ladell wants, Ladell gets. 110 and a touché.

Fearless stupid prediction

A negative times a negative equals a positive, right? Well, there are negatives out the ying yang in Chiefs at Raiders. If mathematical law tells us that somebody's going to emerge positive from this catastrofail, who are we to argue? Start your Chief or Raider. Then take a bath.

Reali-ty bites

I'm having Mad Men withdrawal. Need a highball, a cig, and an inappropriate joke about the Russians. . . . I'm just getting over my Adrian Peterson withdrawal. Anything over 100 and two TDs please. . . . Does a Texans running back plan on holding onto the ball this year? . . . Wade Phillips on last year: "It is what it was." Any way that can take the place of it is what it is? . . . The one thing that's scaring me away from doing my own Man vs. Food? The sequel: Man vs. Bathroom . . . Week 10, T-Minus Soon . . . Watch intently, Fantasize with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind.

Tony Reali writes a weekly fantasy football column for The Inquirer. He is the host of Around the Horn on ESPN.