'Novawhelming! Dick Jerardi, Mike Kern weigh-in on the No. 1 Wildcats

(On the occasion of Villanova being voted No. 1 in the nation in both polls, it seemed like a good time for Dick Jerardi and Mike Kern to have a talk about the Wildcats - where they've been, where they're going, and how they might compare to some of the great Jay Wright teams of the recent past. For the record, the Wildcats are the first Philadelphia team to be No. 1 since Saint Joseph's in 2004.)

DJ: I love watching this team because of the effort, passing and understanding of how to win close games.

The 2006 NCAA team was clearly Jay's most talented. Kyle Lowry is starting in the NBA All-Star Game. Randy Foye is still in the league, coming off the bench for Denver. Attesting to that talent, Foye and Lowry are the only Villanova first-round draft choices during Jay Wright's run.

If that team did not have the misfortune of running into an emerging Florida team in the regional finals, it was good enough to have won the national championship that Florida won that year and the next.

The four guards were thrilling to watch and never saw a three they did not like, shooting a solid 37.5 percent from the arc. They got to the foul line often, shooting 75.7 percent. They played fast, but had few turnovers, fourth least by percentage. And, led by Lowry, their on-ball defense was suffocating.

Mike: It's funny, what I remember about that 2006 team, which I didn't cover until the Sweet 16, was the fact that it probably should have lost to Boston College in the game before it lost to Florida. But I think they were just worn down by that point. So much had to go through their guards that they just didn't have a whole lot left. That doesn't in any way diminish how good they were.

And if that group had a healthy Jason Fraser, who'd come in as the class's highest-rated recruit, or if Curtis Sumpter had not been injured and forced to miss the season, who knows how good they might have been. Heck, they nearly beat North Carolina the year before in the third round. And that team won it all too.

It's amazing how many good guards Jay has had, especially on his best teams. In 2009, not only did he have Scottie Reynolds; he had two sophomore high school All-Americas coming off the bench in Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes. And both last year and this year he goes what seems like 10-deep in the backcourt. And that's even with maybe the best of them, Josh Hart, playing power forward. I guess the question at some point is: Is that going to be enough to finally get them at least to the second weekend for first time since the Final Four?

DJ: Let's agree that Jay's best teams going into the NCAA were 2005, 2006, 2009, 2014 and 2015. He had others, but they were either not that good or fading.

If the 2006 team was the most talented, 2009 ended up being the most accomplished with that four-game run to the Final Four that included wipeouts of UCLA in the second round, Duke in the Sweet 16 and Scottie Reynolds' run to glory against Pittsburgh.

What I remember most about the 2009 team is that they fit together seamlessly and were relentless with their backcourt pressure. In fact, it was that pressure that eventually got to Pitt when it looked like the Panthers had that Elite Eight game.

This team reminds me of that team. It is just relentless. They don't shoot nearly as well as last season's team (32.7 percent from three vs. 38.9 percent), but they give up nothing easy on defense. Only Oklahoma and Virginia have really been able to get to their defense, which is third nationally in efficiency. And they are getting better as we hit mid-February with the emergence of Darryl Reynolds as a serious threat around the basket.

Mike: The 2009 team, simply put, was everything you'd want a team to be. They had every part in their rotation. And it all came together at just the right time, which as we've seen can prove elusive. And that team was losing by 14 in the first round of the NCAAs in South Philly against American early in the second half. And they were only down four midway through the second half of their national semifinal game against North Carolina, with Dante Cunningham taking a makeable three from the left wing/corner that didn't go in. And that was the beginning of the end. I don't know if I saw that team making it that far, mostly because of their bracket, but it had whatever that IT thing happens to be. For whatever reasons, the team the next year didn't, at least not when it counted most.

What's happened the last two years is hard to explain. Well, more last year than 2014. In 2014 I think you had a team that hadn't been there in a while and maybe wasn't as confident as a two-seed should be. It wasn't making shots and ended up losing to the eventual national champ, again, in former Big East rival Connecticut, which should have lost to Saint Joseph's in its opener. I'm not sure the Wildcats would have beaten St. Joe's again, even though they'd torched them four months earlier. They just didn't seem to have the right vibe and it showed.

But last year was different. That team looked like it had all the right stuff. It hadn't lost since mid-January, it had won the Big East for the first time in two decades and it seemed to be really firing on all cylinders. But they say matchups are everything. Or at least a lot of the equation.

And I remember you and I sitting there when LSU somehow blew the game at the very end against N.C. State. And us both thinking the same thing: That wasn't good. Because Villanova would have clocked the Tigers. They were the perfect opponent. All athletic, not very well coached. But the Wolfpack had a lot of good wins throughout the year over good teams. It just had some bad losses, too. And then it all fell apart. Daniel Ochefu missed some inside looks early, most of their guards couldn't hit anything from the arc and the season went poof at least one game before you expected it to. And they still nearly pulled it out at the end. So we were left shaking our heads. But that's what makes this stuff so hard to predict. Hey, Kansas lost in the first weekend as a top-two seed the last two years too, but nobody seems to remember that. Maybe because they won it all in 2008. There was a time when Jay was always in the second weekend. People tend to forget that, too. Funny how it works.

This team has the look, too. I wasn't sure it would, since it had to replace three starters and had only one big man. But now it maybe has two, and everyone else is doing what they have to do. Arch (Ryan Arcidiacono) is Arch, Hart has emerged as a star, Jalen Brunson has fit in. Which isn't always easy for a guy who came in with so many credentials. And Kris Jenkins is finally giving them a lot, at both ends. So is it going to be a repeat of last year, or is this group going to make a long run? I know there's going to be a lot of pressure. But they knew that 10 months ago. That's the burden they're carrying, fair or otherwise.

DJ: Josh Hart has become a star. They asked him to score. He scores. They ask him to rebound. He rebounds. They ask him to defend. He defends.

I thought last season's team was playing lights out at tournament time, but a few players were lost that night against North Carolina State. I will be shocked if this team has any big stage fright. Yes, that second NCAA game will be a mental tester, but if they get through that in a year when there is nothing like a great team or even an obvious favorite, just about anything is possible.

If you asked me to pick one college player to make a free throw to advance to a next NCAA round, it would be Ryan Arch. He plays with a relaxed confidence that comes from being so good for so long and playing in so many big games, going all the way back to his AAU days as a preteen.

Other than the three-point shooting, which is a concern (Darrun Hilliard would look really good on this team), I like all the other numbers. They are fourth in two-point accuracy (56.9 percent) and 10th in free throw shooting (76.4 percent).

This is not a dominant team like last season's because they don't overwhelm teams from the arc, but Hart and Arch are a good enough lead pair to take this team quite a long way. And they may not have to travel far to get to Houston - Brooklyn for sure to start and Wells Fargo for the regionals.

This group has gone 82-11 since Hart and Jenkins arrived on campus. That is insane. They just need one long March run to fill out an incredible résumé.

Mike: I agree. The numbers are historical, really. But there's something missing. And they always say they don't see it that way from within, but how can they not? It's kind of like when the Bills made it to four straight Super Bowls. It was a great accomplishment, but there was always the void part about it. And that's a big part, especially in these times when everyone is measured by how you do in the tournament. John Chaney had teams that barely got into the field go to the Final Eight. Nobody remembers what they did in the regular season. That's the reality. The flip side is, I think if this team gets past the second game it could then play a lot more relaxed and maybe make a serious run. Again, that could be dependent upon who stands in their way. But once the burden is removed, who knows how high is up? And there might not be a great team out there.

It'll be interesting, too to see where they end up. They'll almost certainly be in Brooklyn for the first weekend. They've played there a lot lately and had a lot of success in that building. Then, they could get sent to South Philly, which of course is their second home even if they're only playing there three times this season. They played there in the first weekend in 2006 and '09 and actually struggled in their opening game, but this would be different. I talked to Jay about it not too long ago and he actually thought they might be better off going somewhere else, if they make it that far. And given the recent history, there are no givens. I understand his reasoning that maybe the pressure here could really become suffocating. But if I'm them, I'd rather be home. At that point, I think you want every possible advantage you can get. Of course most of it comes down to matchups anyway, but if I'm Villanova and I'm in the Sweet 16 in my backyard then I'd take my chances. Doesn't guarantee anything, but I don't see how it can hurt.

This team, once again, is a major contender. Just when you think they can't do anything they haven't done, they get to No. 1. Which really is more important to the fan base, but it's still another notch, for a group that has probably been as accomplished in any three-year stretch as any other Big 5 program. That 13-win season in 2011-12 seems like 30 years ago. But in other ways, so does the Final Four in 2009. It isn't fair, but it is the way most people think. And that's what Villanova is battling, the perception that somehow something will go wrong one more time. And there's just no telling how they're going to deal with that, when the moment arrives. But they are certainly equipped to get past that and take this journey for all it's worth. We just have to wait another five weeks or so to find out.

jerardd@phillynews.com

kernm@phillynews.com

On Twitter: @DickJerardi. On Twitter: @mikekerndn