Jerardi: St. Joe's Newkirk showing great promise until injury

MY FAVORITE part of covering college hoops is seeing something I never expected. We all tend to make quick judgments rather than waiting to see how something or someone develops. What we rarely see is what happens in those times when nobody is looking, when players are by themselves in the gym or spending time with their coaches. So when the games begin each season, we are often surprised.

Shavar Newkirk averaged 3.3 points per game as a freshman at Saint Joseph's, shooting 28.1 percent overall, 18.8 percent from three and 56.9 percent from the foul line. When last season began, point guard was an issue for St. Joe's with sophomore Newkirk and freshman Lamarr Kimble. Well, DeAndre' Bembry and Zeke Miles were the stars for the eventual Atlantic 10 champions, but point guard was never an issue.

Newkirk started all 36 games, improved his scoring average to 8.0 points, shot 38 percent overall, 30.3 from the arc and 72.9 from the free throw line. The point guard from Cardinal Hayes in the Bronx had improved in every way.

With Bembry and Miles gone, Newkirk would have to improve at least as much as he did last year. What nobody could have predicted is that he blew up, playing wonderfully from the first game until his season sadly ended Friday when he went in for that layup just before the halftime buzzer. Instead of making another momentum-changing basket, Newkirk tore his left ACL and is gone for the season.

In 11 1/2 games, he averaged 20.3 points, shot 46.6 percent from the field, 39.6 percent from the arc and 84.7 percent from the line. He also had to run the team with Kimble.

Watching him as a freshman, I never imagined Newkirk being able to shoot that well from distance, finish drives so well or score that much. He got so much better because he worked at it.

Now, he will have to work even harder to rehab his knee after the surgery in a few weeks. Having played in 12 games, he is not eligible for a medical redshirt unless some kind of appeal down the road is heard and a fifth year granted. So, the 2017-18 season is likely to be Newkirk's last as a college player. Can't wait for next November to see how much better he has gotten.

Villanova was the last team to win in 2015-16 and might be the last team to lose this season, if, of course, the Wildcats ever lose.

The unbeatens are down to Villanova, Baylor and Gonzaga, as the Wildcats play at Butler Wednesday night.

Baylor has an incredible nonconference résumé, with wins over Oregon, Louisville, Xavier, Michigan State and VCU. The Bears are not going unbeaten because the Big 12 is too strong, but they are in line for a very high NCAA seed.

Gonzaga will not lose many, if it loses at all. The Zags play only four games against top 100 teams, two each against Saint Mary's and BYU.

As for 'Nova, I admit to an addiction to watching the Wildcats play. I record every game, watch it slowly and then go back and watch individual plays. From a technical standpoint, I marvel at the offensive spacing, footwork, court vision and the player and ball movement. It is often breathtaking.

Beyond the skill and precision is the players' belief in themselves and their coaches. Gregg Downer, the Lower Merion coach, told me during the Final Four he had never seen a team so connected. That was the right word then, the right word now.

We all love to get ahead of ourselves, which is why I keep getting asked whether the 'Cats can win a second straight championship. They can, of course, but so can probably 10 other teams. It all depends on matchups and how you are playing when the time comes.

Without Phil Booth, the 'Cats are down to a seven-man rotation. In the NCAA, with its forever timeouts, that really is not an issue. Foul trouble can be an issue, but the 'Cats commit only 14.2 fouls per game, fewest in the nation.

Notice that coach Jay Wright is not having his team use its vaunted 1-2-2 three-quarter court trap as much. That is likely because of the short rotation, the personnel, the lack of a last line of defense like Daniel Ochefu and concerns about foul trouble.

Now that we are getting to see the full Jalen Brunson, we see what an offensive marvel he is. He is never in a rush, but misses no details. His game is a joy to watch and the numbers speak to it - 13.9 points, 52.7 percent shooting, 43.8 percent from the arc and 86.0 percent from the line.

And then there is Josh Hart, having one of the great seasons in Big 5 history. He lives for the big moment and fears nothing. When he takes a big shot, does anybody think he is going to miss?

Hart averages 20.3 points while shooting 56.3 percent overall, 40.6 percent from the arc and 81.7 percent from the foul line. He also defends, rebounds, passes, makes great cuts, defends and wins.

If Booth were healthy and Omari Spellman eligible, Villanova would be my favorite to win the national title. I do think they are vulnerable on defense in ways they were not last season. That could be a problem one night in March or even April. Until then . . .

I am repeating myself here, but enjoy these moments with this team. We have never seen anything like it in this city and are very unlikely to see anything like it again.

When predictions were made in the fall, Princeton was an overwhelming Ivy League favorite, and rightly so. The Tigers not only had all their key players back from a very good team, they were also getting Hans Brase back after their leading scorer two seasons ago missed last season with a knee injury.

Brase, unfortunately, played just five games before reinjuring his knee. He is out for the season. Henry Caruso, last season's leading scorer, played eight games before injuring a toe. He is also out for the season.

So, when Penn visits Jadwin Gym on Saturday night to begin its Ivy season, it will go there knowing that the league is wide open, with no obvious favorite.

And, yes, the first Ivy Tournament, with the top four teams in the regular season participating, will be held at the Palestra.

Some strange results: North Carolina, favored by 17, goes to Georgia Tech and loses, 75-63. Nebraska loses at home to Gardner-Webb (7-8) and then goes on the road to beat Indiana and Maryland. Temple is the only team to beat West Virginia and Florida State, yet loses at home to New Hampshire, which lost at WVU three days later, 100-41. Temple trails, 38-11, at half against UCF. Well, UCF does lead the country in field-goal defense (32.5 percent) . . .

Nine of the top 15 teams lost in the first week of conference play . . .

CAA teams have a nation's best 27 true road wins . . .

Iowa State's wonderful point guard Monte Morris has an incredible 4.5/1 assist/turnover ratio for his career . . .

Teams are averaging a solid 74 points per game through Jan. 1 . . .

West Virginia is outscoring teams by an insane, best-in-the-nation 32.3 points per game.

@DickJerardi