Posted on Fri, Oct. 3, 2008
Back when Joe Paterno's Penn State teams regularly played for national titles, ending spring practices with a cry of "national championship!" usually meant something.
In college football's current climate, though, it might sound a bit presumptuous - especially coming from these Nittany Lions.
But months ago, long before they opened their season 5-0 and climbed to a No. 6 ranking, the Lions broke their huddles by saying "national championship" in unison. It's probably something they've done for years.
After a turmoil-filled off-season that carried over into the early season, the Nittany Lions are very much in the national-title picture. Of course, in today's wacky world of college football, that means about as much as the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.
Last week alone, top-ranked Southern Cal was stunned by Oregon State, No. 4 Florida was upset by Mississippi, and No. 3 Georgia and No. 9 Wisconsin lost games they were favored to win.
"I don't know what an upset is, to be frank with you," Paterno said Tuesday. "I think we have to be careful how we evaluate football teams."
The last two seasons have proved this belief, but last year was unprecedented. The top ranking in the Associated Press poll changed hands seven times. There were five different No. 1s in the BCS standings that debut after Week 7. And after a deluge of upsets, Missouri and West Virginia entered their regular-season finales as the odds-on favorites to clinch berths in the BCS championship. They both lost.
"There are kids getting besieged with people telling them, 'Hey, you're the greatest this, you're the greatest that,' [so] when they suit up to play sometimes it's tough to get their heads on right," Paterno said. "It's a little different world than it used to be."
Paterno pointed to the 85-scholarship limit that was enacted in the early 1990s as a source of today's parity. He also pointed to the overall improvement in coaching.
"When I first started to coach, I used to feel there was a couple of guys I could outcoach," Paterno said. "I can't outcoach anybody [now]."
Still, if you look at the national champions over the last decade, the names are familiar - LSU (twice), Florida, Texas, USC, Ohio State, Miami, Oklahoma, Florida State and Tennessee. If there is a trend, it is that the last two national champions have each had losses - LSU with two last season. That was the first time that had occurred in back-to-back seasons since 1982 (Penn State) and 1983 (Miami).
What does this ultimately mean for the 2008 Lions? It could mean Penn State is very much in the mix, with the five teams ranked ahead of them - Oklahoma, Alabama, Missouri, LSU and Texas - as likely to get knocked off as others. And it could mean Penn State, even with a loss, would not automatically be out of the race.
But it will be difficult for the Lions in the Big Ten. Penn State is its conference's highest-ranked team and suffers from the perception that the Big Ten is a lightweight compared to the Southeastern Conference and the Big Twelve. Much of this opinion stems from Ohio State's blowout losses in the last two national championships.
Of course, Penn State's great start could prove to be fool's gold, the product of an easy, home-field-heavy first month.
None of this has stopped the Lions from openly following their progress in the polls. In players' apartments across State College, teammates gathered last Thursday to watch Southern Cal fall to the Beavers, a team Penn State thumped, 45-14, just weeks earlier.
"You would have thought we were Oregon State alums" center A.Q. Shipley said.
Asked last week after Penn State beat Illinois, 38-24, if the Lions deserved to be in the national-championship conversation, the usually modest Derrick Williams could not contain himself.
"We're not focused on that," the senior wide receiver said before correcting himself. "Well, we are focused on that. I try to be humble, but we are focused on that. We think every day [about] a national championship. We break our huddles with 'national championship!' "
And it might end up meaning something.
The Road Is Littered
No. 6 Penn State is not the only top-ranked team with difficult tests in the coming weeks. In fact, with two Southeastern Conference and three Big Twelve teams ranked ahead of them and yet to play, there is always the possibility that they could cancel each other out. Of course, even if the Lions go undefeated, there's also the chance that a one-loss team from either power conference could leapfrog them into the national title game.
No. 1 Oklahoma
The Sooners have one week to rest - at
Baylor tomorrow - before hosting
Texas (Oct. 11) and No. 16
Kansas (Oct. 18). Their other potential land mine is also a home game: No. 7
Texas Tech on Nov. 22.
No. 2 Alabama
The Crimson Tide have the easiest draw over the next month, but a Nov. 8 meeting at
Louisiana State looms. They finish the regular season in Tuscaloosa against
Auburn, ranked No. 13.
No. 3 Louisiana State
After a bye tomorrow, the Tigers have little time to rest. They travel to No. 12
Florida on Oct. 11, then welcome No. 11
Georgia to Baton Rouge two weeks later, and finally have
Alabama at home.
No. 4 Missouri
If they get past No. 21
Oklahoma State on Oct. 11 and a road date at
Texas on Oct. 18, the Tigers could waltz until their regular-season finale with
Kansas.
No. 5 Texas
The Longhorns have a Murderers' Row of opponents over a six-week span. On Oct. 11, they head to
Oklahoma, host
Missouri and
Oklahoma State on back-to-back Saturdays, then visit
Texas Tech before going back out on the road at
Kansas two weeks later.
Contact staff writer Jeff McLane at 215-854-4745
or jmclane@phillynews.com.