Dick Jerardi unveils his NCAA bracket

I CALLED every 2016 first-round upset except Middle Tennessee over Michigan State (still have no clue how that happened) and Stephen F. Austin over West Virginia (thought seriously about it) on the way to 29-3. If I ever come close to that again, I will consider myself fortunate. My picks won just about every photo finish. That generally does not happen twice.

With that warning, my Final Four is based mostly on the numbers I have found to be most significant in handicapping the tournament. I like teams that are Top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency. There are just four in the field. If I could have chosen them all, I would have, but the committee has Wichita State and Kentucky on course for a second-round game. Gonzaga and Villanova are in opposite brackets and cannot meet until the Final Four.

(Download my bracket here.)

When I looked at the Midwest bracket, which did not have a team that fit my numbers criteria, I asked myself a simple question: Which team has the best coach? The answer was Louisville and Rick Pitino.

Villanova has the right numbers. The Wildcats also have a coach in Jay Wright who is on track for the Hall of Fame and five players who were critical to the 2016 national championship. The selection committee did them no favors with a potential second-round game against Wisconsin, the most NCAA Tournament-experienced team in the field. I thought the Badgers should have been seeded two lines higher, but whom it plays has never been an issue for this Villanova team. It is about how the Wildcats play, and they have been playing really well for four years, great the last two.

That possible Kentucky-Wichita State game was the hardest for me. It is dead even on the numbers. UK would be favored, obviously, and the game is in Indianapolis, a short car ride from Lexington. I played it just as I would at the track. If you think it is equal, take the higher odds or, in this case, the higher seed.

So my Final Four is Villanova-Gonzaga and Wichita State-Louisville. My champions are the Wildcats – again. They are consistent, tough and can win games many ways.

It would be hard to top last year's six-game performance with that epic ending unless, of course, Villanova does it all over again. There is a champion every year that is rightly celebrated. Teams that win it twice in a row are remembered forever.

All the 12 seeds are live. I picked Middle Tennessee over Minnesota and North Carolina Wilmington over Virginia. I like Xavier over Maryland in an 11-6 game. Oklahoma State-Michigan should be the wildest offensive show.

SMU and Cincinnati from the American are better than people think. Either or both could be playing for a while. I love how Iowa State is playing. Duke played great in Brooklyn, but will its defense hold up?

So, 67 games to determine a champion on April 3 in Phoenix. Enjoy.

jerardd@phillynews.com

@DickJerardi