CHICAGO @ SAN FRANCISCO
Chicago has been blitzed by two great QBs, Carson Palmer and Kurt Warner. They should do better against Alex Smith, but Smith does have a 49 percent chance of passing for 2 or more TDs and if he does the 49ers are the 56 percent favorite. Jay Cutler needs to limit turnovers. There is a 32 percent chance that he throws no interceptions and if can do this the Bears are 69 percent favorites. However, if Cutler throws 1 or more INTs the Bears are the 43 percent underdog. San Francisco needs to make sure Matt Forte does not have a big game. If Forte has under 75 rushing yards the 49ers are favored to win at 56 percent.

DALLAS @ GREEN BAY
Aaron Rodgers will need to withstand the Cowboys pass rush for Green Bay to win. He is getting sacked more than 4 times per simulation and if the Cowboys sack him 5+ times the Packers only have a 40 percent chance of winning. If Rodgers is sacked no more than 3 times the Packers are 70 percent favorites. The Packers also need to contain the Cowboys running game. If Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice average 5+ yards per carry the Cowboys are 69 percent favorites. The Packers secondary will need to get Tony Romo to throw at least 1 INT. If Romo does not throw an INT Dallas is the 62 percent favorite, but if Romo throws 1+ INT the Packers are the 63 percent favorite.

BUFFALO @ TENNESSEE
The Bills have the #32 rated run defense and Chris Johnson is like to have a huge game. He has a 55 percent chance of rushing for 120+ yards and if he dominates the Titans are heavy 79 percent favorites. If the Bills can actually keep Johnson under 100 yards the Bills are the 62 percent favorite. The Bills need to get several big passing plays down field to pull off the upset. If the Bills get at least 2 passing TDs and 4 or more passing plays of 25+ yards the Bills have a 45 percent chance. If they also can average 4 ypc the Bills actually are the 52 percent favorite.

NEW ENGLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS
Both Brady and Manning are forecasted to play well with passer ratings over 90, but Manning is committing fewer turnovers giving the Colts the 60 percent edge. Manning has a 49 percent chance of throwing no INTs while Brady has a 43 percent chance of doing the same. If the Colts beat up secondary can pick off Brady at least once the Colts are solid 68 percent favorites. However, if Brady has no INTs and Laurence Maroney can average over 5 ypc the Patriots are 57 percent favorites. Expect plenty of receptions from your key fantasy receivers. Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark all are averaging 6+ receptions per simulation.

KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND
The Chiefs statistically dominated the earlier match-up vs the Raiders but lost because of costly turnovers. This is expected to be a close game with the Raiders just 53 percent favorites winning by less than an average of 1 point. In games this close turnover margin is the key. If Matt Cassell throws no more than 1 INT the Chiefs are the 52 percent favorite, but if he throws 2 or more the Raiders are the heavy 75 percent favorite. The Chiefs defense is dead-last in INTs at just 3 in 8 games. Even the INT prone JaMarcus Russell only has a 50 percent chance of throwing an INT. This has a lot to do with the Raiders offense looking to stick with the run. If the Raiders average over 4.5 ypc they are 68 percent favorites, but if they are held under 4 ypc the Chiefs are the 56 percent favorite.

NEW ORLEANS @ SAINT LOUIS
The Saints run defense has struggled in recent weeks and the Rams will need Steven Jackson to have a huge game in order to pull off the upset. While the Rams have under a 15 percent chance, if Jackson has 120+ yards, at least 1 TD and the Rams do not commit a single turnover the Rams get the slight 51 percent edge. Drew Brees is projected for 280 yards and 2+ TDs with a better than 3 to 1 TD to INT ratio. If the Rams defense, which has 6 INTs in 8 games this year, can sack Brees 4+ times and force 2 INTs the Rams chances jump from 13 to 53 percent. However, if Brees throws no INTs and he is sacked no more than once the Saints dominate winning over 94 percent of simulations.

TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI
The Tampa Bay defense has allowed the opposition to average 4.8 ypc allowing over 160 rushing yards. The #4 rated Dolphins running game is expected to put up big numbers with Brown and Williams combining for 160+ yards on 5 ypc. If the Dolphins are held under 4 ypc Tampa Bay improves their chances from under 25 percent to 37 percent. If Tampa Bay can also force at least 2 Dolphins turnovers the Bucs actually are 51 percent favorites. However, if Miami averages 5+ ypc and they commit no more than 1 turnover the Dolphins should cruise with a projected score of Miami 31, Tampa Bay 12.

DETROIT @ MINNESOTA
Matthew Stafford is actually averaging as many passing yards as Brett Favre, but this is misleading. Stafford has a rating of just 57 in simulations vs 126 for Favre. Stafford is racking up a lot of yards as the Lions will have to pass most of the 2nd half if they are down 14+ points. Stafford is averaging 2 INTs per sim. If he throws no INTs the Lions chances improve from 9 to nearly 25 percent. If the Lions can somehow stop Adrian Peterson and hold him to under 75 yards and 0 TDs they have a 44 percent chance. But there is only a 5 percent chance of this exact scenario happening.

JACKSONVILLE @ NEW YORK
The Jets are favored because Thomas Jones has a nearly 50 percent chance of rushing for over 75 yards and 1 TD, while Maurice Jones-Drew only has a 30 percent chance of matching these numbers against the Jets defense. However, if Jones-Drew matches or puts up bigger numbers than Jones then Jacksonville is the 65 percent favorite. The Jaguars also hope Mark Sanchez will throw at least 1 INT. If Sanchez throws 1+ INTs the Jaguars are 53 percent favorites, but if Sanchez throws no picks the Jets are the heavy 70 percent favorite.

SEATTLE @ ARIZONA
The Cardinals dominated the previous meeting by shutting down the Seahawks offense. Seattle should be much better this week with Matt Hasselbeck having a 48 percent chance of passing for 250+ yards and at least 1 TD. If Hasselbeck can hit these numbers and throw no INTs the Seahawks improve their chances by 10 percentage points. The Seahawks have to hope to force multiple Kurt Warner INTs. If they have 2+ INTs then Seattle has a fighting 46 percent chance, but if Warner is protected and throws no more than 1 INT the Cardinals are heavy 77 percent favorites.

CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH
The Bengals are in control of the division and if they can pull off the upset win they will likely go undefeated in the AFC North. The keys to another Bengals victory is offensive balance (80+ rushing yards from Cedric Benson, 200+ yards from Carson Palmer) and no more than 1 turnover. If Cincinnati can hit these 3 statistical levels they are 56 percent favorites. However, if Benson is held under 80 yards and the Steelers force at least 2 Bengals turnovers Pittsburgh dominates with a 89 percent chance of winning with an average score of PIT 30, CIN 15.

PHILADELPHIA @ SAN DIEGO
The Chargers will look to get the ball downfield to Vincent Jackson. If Jackson has a big game with 100 yards and a TD the Chargers are solid 60 percent favorites. If the Eagles can successfully bait Philip Rivers into throwing at least 1 INT the Eagles have a 50 percent chance even if Jackson has a big game. The Chargers defense is playing better and there is a 48 percent chance they sack McNabb at lest 3 times. If they do this the Chargers win 64 percent of the time, but if McNabb has good protection (no more than 1 sack) he is averages 1.8 TDs and just 0.7 INTs and the Eagles have a 60 percent chance.

DENVER @ WASHINGTON
Washington can keep the game close if they commit no turnovers. If they commit no more than 1 turnover the Redskins have nearly a 50 percent chance. However, if they commit multiple turnovers the Broncos are heavy 74 percent favorites. The Broncos are balanced on offense averaging over 100 rushing yards and over 225 passing yards per simulation. Defensively they are harassing the Redskins QBs. The Broncos defense is averaging over 4 sacks per simulation and when they have at least 4 sacks the Broncos have a 73 percent chance. If the Broncos defense has under 3 sacks the Redskins have a good chance winning 52 percent of these simulations.

ATLANTA @ CAROLINA
The Falcons are very happy to see Michael Turner bursting his way to huge games. He is averaging close to 100 yards and 1 TD per simulation. Carolina can win if they hold Turner to under 90 rushing yards. If the Panthers hold Turner under 90 and under 3.5 ypc the Panthers are 61 percent favorites. However, if Turner controls the game with over 90 yards the Falcons become heavy 75 percent favorites. Both QBs are averaging over 1 INT. If Jake Delhomme has no more than 1 INT the Panthers can win (57 percent favorite), but if he has another multiple INT game the Panthers have just a 24 percent chance.

BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND
Baltimore has a struggling defense that should statistically get a nice boost after playing the Browns. They are holding Jamal Lewis to under 3 ypc and the Browns QBs are averaging under 175 passing yards. The Browns have around a 19 percent chance regardless of who starts at QB. Offensively the Ravens will look to control the game running the ball against the Browns 31st ranked run defense. Ray Rice has a 42 percent chance of rushing for 75+ yards and at least 1 rushing TD despite averaging just 16 carries. If Rice dominates the Ravens are heavy 93 percent favorites. However, if the Browns can hold Rice for under 75 rushing yards and force multiple Ravens turnovers they improve their chance to a respectable 40 percent. If they can do these two things while also committing no more than 1 turnover, Cleveland is the 57 percent favorite.