Power teams look to have best shot at winning Chase

SINCE THE CHASE was launched in 2004, only four drivers have won championships: Jimmie Johnson, six; Tony Stewart, two; Kurt Busch and Brad Keselowski, one each. I'm sensing there will be a new champion this year: how's that for a tease? No peeking toward the end for my choice.

If this year's first 26 pre-Chase races mean anything, the Chase winner will be one of the four Hendrick Motorsports drivers or one of Penske Racing's duo. Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne carry the Hendrick banner; Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano power Penske.

Gordon, Earnhardt and Johnson have won three races each. Keselowski has collected a series-leading four wins; Logano is a three-time winner. Kahne won once. That's 17 wins among them in the first 26 races. If a Chaser from another team can work his way through this formidable minefield and prevail as champion, it would be a major upset.

"I wouldn't say it's reasonable for that to happen," Greg Biffle, the 15th-seeded Chaser, said yesterday during a visit to the Nemours/Alfred I. du Pont Hospital for Children in Delaware. "But it probably would be difficult for myself or Carl [Edwards] to do it. Quite honestly, we've been a bit behind for the whole season."

Biffle (19 career Cup wins) is winless this season. Edwards, his Roush Fenway teammate, has two wins.

"We are changing our cars massively [for the Chase]," Biffle said. "We have no clue where we're off [with the cars]."

Still, Biffle is encouraged by his five consecutive top-10 finishes before Saturday night's 19th place at Richmond. It's unlikely he or Edwards will win the Chase this year, but advancing to the top eight after six races would be an accomplishment.

Sixteen drivers will start the Chase Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway. After the third race, in Dover, Del., the bottom four drivers in points will be knocked out of contention (though they'll still compete in the remaining races).

After the next three races, the contenders will be trimmed to eight. For the final race at Homestead Fla., only the top four drivers in the standings will be eligible for the title. If one of the final four wins the race, he'll be the champion. If none of those four wins, the highest finisher among the four will hoist the trophy.

Clint Bowyer is the only Chaser from last year who didn't qualify this year.

The Chasers (in seeding order, with number of years in Chase and best Chase finishes):

1. Brad Keselowski: third Chase, best finish, first 2 years ago; leads the series with four wins this year, including a dominating performance at Richmond, where he led all but 17 laps.

2. Jeff Gordon: 11th Chase, second in 2007; has his most wins since 2011.

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: seventh Chase, fifth three times; his best season since six wins in 2004.

4. Jimmie Johnson: 11th Chase, first six times; still a strong contender, but he's had more disappointing finishes than in recent years.

5. Joey Logano: second Chase, eighth last year; could be ready to strike.

6. Kevin Harvick: eighth Chase, third three times; he's the best title pursuer outside the Hendrick-Penske drivers. Harvick is using Tony Stewart's pit crew in the Chase. Harvick's crew, which struggled this season, will work for non-Chaser Stewart.

7. Carl Edwards: eighth Chase, second twice; he's in the homestretch with Roush Fenway; moves to Joe Gibbs Racing next year.

8. Kyle Busch: seventh Chase, fourth last year; he clearly has the talent (136 wins in NASCAR's top three series, including 29 in Cup), but does he have the maturity to handle the Chase pressure?

9. Denny Hamlin: ninth Chase, second in 2010; qualified for the Chase with a win. He missed one race with illness. Gibbs Racing cars also are searching for speed.

10. Kurt Busch: eighth Chase, first in 2004; with one title and his experience, he could sneak in under the radar to the final four.

11. Kasey Kahne: fifth Chase, fourth in 2012. We don't see him outracing his Hendrick teammates in the Chase.

12. Aric Almirola: first Chase; title hopes are rated NC, as in no chance.

13. A.J. Allmendinger: first Chase; see Almirola.

14. Matt Kenseth: 10th Chase, second twice; led the Chase after the first five races last year before finishing second to Johnson; needs to quickly find the magic that brought him a series-leading seven wins last year.

15. Greg Biffle: seventh Chase, second in 2005; his experience could propel him into the final eight.

16. Ryan Newman: sixth Chase, sixth in '05; his consistency is a strength, but he needs to win a Chase race.

My choice as Chase champion is (drum roll, please, with wrenches tapping on an empty oil container): Jeff Gordon. He's winning and enjoying racing with one of the top teams. He won four titles before the Chase began. At age 43, he's due to win his fifth.

Full disclosure: Last year, Kyle Busch was my Chase pick.

MyAFibStory.com 400

Chicagoland Speedway, Joliet, Ill.

When: Sunday, 2 p.m.

TV/Radio: ESPN/WNPV (1440-AM)

Course: 1.5-mile oval

Distance: 267 laps/400 miles

Forecast: partly cloudy, upper 60s

Last year's winner: Matt Kenseth

Last year's pole: Joey Logano, 189.414 mph (track qualifying record)

Track facts: Tony Stewart has the most wins at Chicagoland (three). Kevin Harvick is a two-time winner. Chasers with one victory each at the track are Brad Keselowski, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr. Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth and Ryan Newman. Maybe Jimmie Johnson is due for a Chicagoland win; he has seven top-five finishes at the track ... In winning last year's race Kenseth led four times for 89 laps, including the last 23. Kyle Busch was runner-up; Harvick was third ... Jamie McMurray's fourth place at Richmond tied his season-best finish.

CHASE STANDINGS

1. Brad Keselowski 2,012

2. Jeff Gordon 2,009

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2,009

4. Jimmie Johnson 2,009

5. Joey Logano 2,009

6. Kevin Harvick 2,006

7. Carl Edwards 2,006

8. Kyle Busch 2,003

9. Denny Hamlin 2,003

10. Kurt Busch 2,003

11. Kasey Kahne 2,003

12. Aric Almirola 2,003

13. AJ Allmendinger 2,003

14. Matt Kenseth 2,000

15. Greg Biffle 2,000

16. Ryan Newman 2,000

Wins: Brad Keselowski, 4; Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon and Joey Logano, 3 each; Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards, 2 each; Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Aric Almirola, A.J. Allmendinger, Kasey Kahne, 1 each.

Up next: Sylvania 300, Sept. 21, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Loudon, N.H., 2 p.m.; TV: ESPN; last year's winner: Matt Kenseth.