Sizing up the field for NASCAR's Chase

WITH the turmoil of the Richmond race presumably in our rearview mirrors, it's time to focus on the 10th Chase that begins Sunday at Chicagoland Speedway.

This Chase features major turnover: Five drivers weren't in last year's Chase: Kyle and Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Joey Logano and Ryan Newman. They replace champion Brad Keselowski, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr.

Keselowski's missing the Chase will make many question whether he's a 1-year wonder as a champion. He hasn't won a race this year.

After Richmond, the 26th race on the Cup schedule, all the 12 Chasers have their points reset at 2,000. Seedings are determined by adding three bonus points to drivers in the top 10 for each win in the first 26 races. Thus, Matt Kenseth, with five victories, starts with 2,015 points. Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson (four wins each) have 2,012 points.

My choice to win the Chase is at the end (no peeking!)

The Chasers, in seeding order, with years in the Chase and their best Chase finishes:

1. Matt Kenseth (ninth Chase; best finish: second in 2006). Kenseth won at Talladega and Kansas in last year's Chase. He swept the '03 Cup series title the year before the Chase was launched.

2. Jimmie Johnson (10th Chase; best: five consecutive titles 2006-10). Johnson has won the most Chases races (22). However, in this year's last four pre-Chase races his average finish was 36th. His 75-points lead vanished, allowing Carl Edwards to finish one point ahead of him.

3. Kyle Busch (sixth Chase, best: fifth in '07). Raced at a high level all year. Appears more focused than ever, but he's never won a race in the Chase.

4. Kevin Harvick (seventh Chase, best: third in 2010, '11). He's had a solid season, with two wins. However, in the last seven races, he has only one top-five finish.

5. Carl Edwards (seventh Chase, best: second in '08 and '11). He was edged by Tony Stewart 2 years ago for the title. Among this year's Chasers, Edwards has won the second-most Chase races (eight).

6. Joey Logano (first Chase). He's the youngest Chaser (23) and one of the most consistent, heading into the playoffs. In the six races before Richmond, he had one win, two other top fives and three top 10s.

7. Greg Biffle (sixth Chase, best: second in '05). "The Biff" has one win this year. In the last six races, his best finishes are ninth twice.

8. Clint Bowyer (fifth Chase, best: second last year). Bowyer enters the Chase as a villain in the eyes of many for his late-race spinout at Richmond that initially helped teammate Martin Truex Jr. make the Chase.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (sixth Chase, best: fifth in '04 and '06). With no wins this year and only one top five (Pocono) in the last 12 races, he hasn't shown Chase-winning form.

10. Kurt Busch (seventh Chase, best: first in '04). Busch won the first Chase. He's done a remarkable job leading a single-car team into the Chase this year.

11. Kasey Kahne (fourth Chase, best: fourth last year). He is a wild-card entry, with two wins.

12. Ryan Newman (fifth Chase, best: sixth in '05). He was added as the second wild card, as he should be, after Truex was dismissed from the Chase for violations by his Michael Waltrip Racing team in Richmond.

And now (drum roll on a tire carrier, please), Fleischman's Fearless Forecast for the Chase winner: Kyle Busch. After missing last year's Chase, Busch bounced back this season. At age 28, he's won a staggering 121 races in Sprint Cup (28), Nationwide (60) and Camping World Trucks (33). It's his time for his first Chase championship.