Redefining Lidge
The numbers suggest the Phils need two closers this year.
Redefining Lidge
Rich Hofmann, Daily News Sports Columnist
Well, we can all pretty much agree that pitching Brad Lidge on four consecutive days is officially a bad idea. It is safe to assume that, after Tuesday night's conflagration in Pittsburgh, that Phils manager Charlie Manuel won't be running Lidge out there back to back to back to back anymore.
But, well, what is the proper way to use a closer who was perfect last year, who is signed for two more years of big money after this one, but who has now blown nine saves this year?
I think there are enough numbers that suggest a pretty clear course of action, and it is this: the Phils should not pitch Lidge on back to back days anymore (no less back to back to back to back). That's it. They need two closers if they are going to win another World Series.
Now for the numbers. You can argue with my assumptions, but here goes. First, I'm limiting myself to the games since Lidge returned from the disabled list in late June. To me, that just makes sense. It's a decent-sized sample and it has the benefit of being the most recent experience. Second, I'm removing the four games when Lidge was brought in with the Phillies trailing. He was terrible in three of those four games (two with rest, one without rest). This suggests it isn't a rest issue but a closer-lacking-adrenalin issue, which is common and which will not happen in the post-season.
Best as I can cipher, that leaves us with 21 appearances where Lidge entered a game either tied or with a lead, 12 with at least one day of rest and nine with no days of rest.
With rest: 2.38 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 75 percent of the appearances without allowing an earned run.
Without rest: 9.95 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, and 56 percent of the appearances without allowing an earned run.
That seems plain enough. I think the evidence is there. They need another guy -- not to take over the job but to augment what Lidge can still give them. Or they need a committee of guys to work on the days when Lidge cannot. Over at High Cheese, Dave Murphy has a post where he runs you through potential members of the committee.
But they need to start recognizing the framework around which they can build their ninth innings. The goal for September should be to pitch Lidge only when rested and see if the numbers hold up. If they do, you have continued to express a reasonable level of confidence in your struggling closer and you have created your framework. If they don't, you have spent the month getting somebody else ready -- and my money would be on Mr. Escalade, Brett Myers.
Rich, now text this to Dubee/Manuel.— John621
He should go to the Iron Pigs and work on his fastball location and confidence. The team can't do much worse without him. Or, put him on the 15 day disabled list and let him rest and strengthen.— psuwelsh- Closer by committee is the same as no closer at all, which is what we have now.— gulf coast Mike
- Reasonable idea. Lets see if it works. Even a rested Lidge worries me. This whole four day in a row thing would not have been an emphasis if Lidge didnt whine about it after the game. If I was Manuel, the way he has been loyal to his closer to a fault, I would be kind of annoyed that Lidge threw out that excuse. I am hoping that Manuel gets so ticked that he stops the insane blind loyalty, and starts the process of searching for options tonight.— arrowamy
- Last night, I was angry. At Lidge, of course. But, more at Charlie for being so stubborn in giving him the ball, watch him implode, and even before he gives up the winning run, not,not putting in someone else. All to do what? Help his psyche? Oh come on. The guy is paid millions with his psyche in tact. Enough. No more Lidge until he sets up someone else for a while. Eyre was ready. But, no, Charlie had to put in Lidge to blow it once more. An 8 game lead is better than 7.— KGKoons
- Rich, fascinating numbers!! I agree with John621 - give this info to Cholly & Dubee.— Dave14
- That's a very insightful post. I had no idea of the disparity between days with rest and days without. But one stat was omitted: Lidge's ERA on days when he doesn't pitch, which is 0.00. Can't beat that.— hankOceann
- My question is why was Lidge used on Sunday (third straight day) with a four run lead???— dick k
- Oops, I meant Monday...— dick k
- Hard to argue with the facts presented. Lidge is obviously a shadow of what he was a year ago. The Phillies cannot count on him as they did last year. Maybe, as you suggest, Myers could be the answer. Where is he in relation to coming back?— tbird
- Oops, I meant Monday...— dick k
- The coaches keep talking like there isn't an option. They have to admit there is a problem before it gets fixed. Stubborness isn't getting Cholly anywhere.— scootch
- Rich, I don't say this very often but I totally agree with what you've said here. There are two other times that Lidge pitched on 4 straight days this year and Lidge went out with knee problems after both of them. I'm not sure what the heck Charlie is thinking here but nobody throws a closer on 4 straight days, even a healthy one, let alone one who's been hurt all year, battling knee problems and mechanics issue. That's just sadistic. Mike, a closer by committee is not the same as we have now. Pitching Lidge in 1 out of every 3 save situations is obviously not the same as pitching Lidge in 3 out of every 3 save situations.— JimG
- Nice article Rich, but as most people say, you can make statistics prove just about anything you want. Let's throw out the games on the days he doesn't eat breakfast too and of course those night games when he eats broccoli. Cause I know I couldn't pitch after eating broccoli. Now if we take the chicken McNuggetts when the team's on the road out too, well.......hello mama! He still sucks! His confidence may be fine, his knee may be fine, lady luck may have turned but still millions of viewers cringe while his teammates tighten up their gloves and arms, every time he comes into a game. That's not good. Even a poor country boy like Cholly has to recognize, that ain't good.— Mark1npt
- Trevor Hoffman is on waivers and has a great season this year for Milwalkee— hegzatsc
