Papelbon by The Book
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Papelbon by The Book
Matt Gelb
WASHINGTON — In five of the Phillies' 14 losses, they have watched their opponent dance on the field in celebration. Friday night's 4-3 defeat to the Nationals was just the latest way the Phillies have walked off losers. And in all five games, the highest-paid reliever in baseball history has not thrown a pitch.
Jonathan Papelbon has pitched in 11 of the team's first 27 games. Nine times he has appeared in a save situation and converted them all. His only charged run was in a non-save situation.
But it's his lack of presence that is most noticeable. Those five losses were with (in order), Joe Blanton, David Herndon, Antonio Bastardo, Brian Sanches and Michael Schwimer on the mound.
Charlie Manuel and Rich Dubee have not defied conventional baseball strategy by holding Papelbon back until he can save a game. In fact, they have made decisions that the 29 other managers in baseball probably would duplicate. The Book says you don't pitch your closer in a tie game on the road, and rarely for more than three outs at any one time.
It does not make the logic any more sound, or the results less frustrating.
"I'm not supposed to use him," Manuel said after Friday's loss. "I don't get a chance to use him. We're not supposed to use him. We're not going to burn him out early in the season when we can’t get to him."
That has often been the message after those five games. In two of the first three games, Papelbon could have been deployed in a tie game or the eighth inning with a lead
"No. It's too early," Dubee said April 9. "You want to run them out there every 162 games?"
In Wednesday's wild 15-13 loss to Atlanta, Papelbon could have entered with a lead in the eighth or in the tie game later.
"We never do that," Manuel said that night. "It's just not the way it is. Papelbon is in the ninth inning for a save. When we ever have a lead, when we start the ninth inning, he's gonna save."
And over and over. It's been this way for some 30 years. If you were expecting it to change when the Phillies committed $50 million to Papelbon, then keep dreaming. And that's no indictment of Manuel or Dubee. They are following The Book.
In some ways, it was that thinking that made Ryan Madson so valuable. He was not bound by the "closer" restrictions until his final season with the Phillies. Before that, he was used in the eighth and seventh innings when the toughest situations arose.
So when does The Book require revisions? Tom Verducci, Sports Illustrated's venerable baseball writer, asked that question last month in a poignant story. His impetus was the amount of injured closers. He writes:
The role is devolving, not evolving. The past two seasons mark the first time since the save statistic became official in 1969 that nobody saved 25 games with 81 innings in back-to-back full seasons. Bailey, with the 2009 Athletics, is the only closer to do so in the past four years.
Managers are motivated by the save statistic, throwing three-out save chances to their closer like bones to a dog. The game universally has embraced this idea that a closer can't come in to a tie game on the road -- better to lose the game with a lesser pitcher than run your closer out there without a save in hand.
What makes this groupthink so crazy is that the system isn't working. Closers are breaking down or losing effectiveness faster than you can say Joel Zumaya. (Quick, look around baseball: show me the high velocity, high energy closer with the obligatory, goofy closer-hair starter kit who has a long career. The job has a bit of planned obsolescence to it.)
Papelbon could be the one to avoid that obsolescence. Or not. Through Papelbon's age 30 season (2011), he had saved 219 games. The great Mariano Rivera posted only 165 saves through his age 30 season (2000). But Papelbon threw 23 fewer innings than Rivera despite appearing in 64 more games. Both were converted starting pitchers.
If Papelbon records as many outs in 2012 as he did in 2011 (193), the Phillies will pay him $64,766 per out. It could be worth it if Papelbon is always the one pitching in a game's most crucial late-inning situations. But the book prevents that from happening.
Here is a grand experiment worth watching: In the wake of Rivera's catastrophic season-ending injury, the Yankees have two options to replace baseball's greatest closer.
There is David Robertson, who has struck out a ridiculous 121 batters in his last 78 2/3 innings dating back to last season. With runners on base, opponents hit .153 with a .487 OPS against him in 2011.
And then there is Rafael Soriano, who led the American League in saves in 2010. He has experience, is being paid like a closer, and is comfortable there.
Robertson could have the first crack. Or Joe Girardi could decide it's not worthwhile to anoint one closer. The Star-Ledger's Marc Carig has a suggestion: Leave Robertson where he is because he's shown an ability to record outs when they are needed the most in the seventh or eighth innings.
If Girardi thinks progressively, maybe it will establish a precedent. It certainly won't happen in the Phillies dugout, but if that means calling for Manuel's head, know that no modern manager will think differently.
For now, pray for a lead on the road or for better bullpen depth.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
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The Phillies management is selectively conventional, usually in a way that coddles their highest paid veterans. A 4 year $50 million contract for a closer is unconventional. Having a young reliever in for 58 pitches is unconventional. But the Phillies management are more about justifying their moves than they are about winning. When they give a guy one more year than anyone else was offering, he'll play every day that one more year. And they don't have any problem hanging a guy like Schwimer out to dry or losing games as long as Amaro can justify the much criticized Papelbon deal at the end of the year.— jtj06- Um, excuse me, why do you think Papelbon hasn't had a major injury to this point (unless other closers?). The Red Sox handled Papelbon this way from the time they brought him up--there was an article in the Boston Globe last month about how they "gift-wrapped" him for the Phillies. Madson is example A of how NOT to handle a closer (see: TJ surgery).— idshull
- Didn't Papelbon begin his career as a starter? Surely fatigue isn't a big issue for him.— mattjedruch
- What the hell would have been the point to pitching Papelbon in the 9th or 10th inning, on the road? What bothers me most is there is an element that is SO damn hell bent on challenging the conventional wisdom, that they actually fail to look at the real life circumstances when they challenge.
Papelbon would have been wasted in the 9th, 10th or 11th inning. If he had pitched the 9th, throwing to 3-4-5, he would have gotten through the inning, the Phillies wouldn't have scored and Schwimer would have come in anyway. Schwimer would have pitched 2 innings, the Phillies wouldn't have scored and Schwimer would still face a 3rd inning of work. And if the Phillies had gotten a lead, then Schwimer would have been closing after throwing 45 pitches.
The right thing was done last night and the only problems were the Umpires that cost the Phillies a 9 inning win and the fact the Phillies couldn't get a base runner in extra innings after Victorino reached 2nd.
Sometimes, the conventional wisdom actually is wise.— PhilaPhans - I have no problem with the way we are using Papelbon, it is the 7th and 8th that have to be addressed. Qualls is not the answer in the 8th, you need more of a power pitcher (Bastardo) and let Qualls and the other scrap pitch the 7th and before.— softballdude
- Nice points. Rivera, if my memory serves, was often used to get a 4 or 5 out save. And until recent non-pitching misfortune occurred, he has lasted very long. The players are there to help us win games; they serve no other purpose beyond that.— bobcitydoc
- Once again ol' Charley proves he is just a great messager of egos. He's a great clubhouse man, keeps all the players happy but that doesn't cut it when your no longer loaded with first rate talent at every position. To only use your ace reliever when it's a definite save possibility is stupid. What if, in the next month or so we're not in "save situations"? Does he just sit i the bullpen? First Charley fired his last 3 batting coaches. Does he now blame Dubee and get him fired?— sdking1112
- Philly fans have very short memories. Charlie is one of the best active managers in the game. 5 straight division titles and always had to deal with key injuries to get those victories. The Phillies have problems this season. The lineup is weak, and they don't have a consistent 8th inning man yet. Charlie will work it out or Amaro will find additions before the season is over. Even having 13 wins so far is pretty amazing with their offense. My only complaint with Charlie is all the shuffling he's doing with the batting order. But I think Charlie knows a heck of a lot more about this team than I do. I am confident that Charlie is making moves for sound reasons. The guy is a great manager, and Philly fans were never too good at noticing greatness. I'm just hoping the players don't turn on the fans for attacking Charile. All the players love Charile and that's not too strong of a word. The Phillies have great pitiching and excellent defense. They will be playing in the fall. You can trust Charlie to get them there.— Ron
- Gelb, you seriously need to stop beating this dead horse because you're just continuing to prove how little you know about the game of baseball. It has nothing to do with getting the closer his saves. If you bring Papelbon into a tie game in the bottom of the 9th on the road and then you take the lead in the 10th, then you have to bring Schwimmer into the bottom of the 10th to hold the lead. Nobody brings the closer into tie games on the road because the home team will still get a chance to bat after the road team gets the lead and you'll end up needing someone to close out the game. By contrast, a home team can win in their AB without the other team getting up again so that's why a closer is used in a tie game at home. It has nothing to do with padding save stats. Also, 81 innings is a lot for a reliever. Most don't pitch that many and when they do, they usually stink it up at the end of the year (see the Braves relievers last year) or they end up getting hurt or having a bad year the next year. Mariano Rivera started out as a set-up guy that would often pitch 2 innings. Papelbon started out as a closer. That's why Rivera had more innings pitched at the same point in their careers.— JimG
- Papelbon is the closer, argument over. You don't take a Ferrari to the groceries store for milk and bread at the corner.— Ron
- 162 games. Who cares— fman727
- So right now Papelbon is on pace to throw exactly 66 innings. That hardly comes close to "burning him out," but I would have to admit more than another 2 innings and he would be on pace to be overused. So while I've been guilty of saying bring him in the 8th when needed it really doesn't look like he could have been used that way responsibly more than once. Something to monitor going forward as we definitely do not want to burn out a closer signed for 3 more years, but limiting him to the 9th is pretty stupid when we've had plenty of games lost in the 8th.— lazyboy
- Thank you for this article. Breath of fresh air. Charlie is stuck in last century and will never evolve or take (non-stupid) chances, unfortunately.— BigtimeMadMan
- Having Papelbon pitch more than a close situation is the least of their worries. Consistently producing only 5-6 hits a game and very few big innings is what's making this season so frustrating so far. But it's only May.— benjyedwards
- I find it laughable that Gelb and Murphy think that the Phillies could have signed Bell for $3 million less per year, get the same quality of a closer, and somehow that $3 million would have brought them an impact bat. $3 million per year is a fringe starter, at best, and certainly not anyone with any talent. By the way, Heath Bell just got demoted from the closer role. So far this season, Bell is is 0-3 with an 11.42 ERA and 4 blown saves. He's given up 15 hits in 8 2/3 innings with 10 BBs against 6 Ks. You get what you pay for. And Madson blew out his arm. So looks like Amaro definitely made the right call with Papelbon.— JimG
