Over the last two years, Domonic Brown has been better at baseball than Delmon Young
What if I told you that, according to virtually every objective measure available to us, Dom Brown has been a better baseball player than Delmon Young over the last two seasons?
Over the last two years, Domonic Brown has been better at baseball than Delmon Young
David Murphy
I'm already on record as saying that the Delmon Young signing makes some sense for the Phillies. At $750,000, there is not a lot of downside.
That being said, there is some downside, and that downside is the potential that the signing of Young precludes Domonic Brown from entering a season with the confidence that comes with knowing that he has a regular major league job. Now, I know there is a faction of Phillies fans that is suffering from Dom Brown fatigue. That faction would likely argue that 422 plate appearances is as much of an opportunity as most players can hope for at the major league level. And in the 422 plate appearances that Brown has logged over the last couple of seasons, he hasn't put up the numbers that you would expect out of a prospect who was as highly touted as he was.
But do me a favor and forget about the expectations for a moment. Instead of comparing Brown to the player you were led to believe he would be, why not compare him to the player who the Phillies just signed to replace him as their top option in right field heading into spring training.
What if I told you that, according to virtually every objective measure available to us, Dom Brown has been a better baseball player than Delmon Young over the last two seasons?
Over the last two years, Brown has 21 doubles, 3 triples, 10 home runs, 46 walks and 2 hit by pitches in 422 plate appearances. That means he has produced a total of 194 bases in 422 plate appearances (two bases for a double, three for triple, one for a walk, etc.). That's an average of 0.46 bases per plate appearances. Over the last two seasons, Delmon Young has produced an average of 0.43 bases per plate appearance.
Power? Young has the edge in home runs, averaging one every 34.9 at bats, while Brown checks in at one every 37.1 at bats. But Brown has an edge in extra base hits, averaging one every 10.9 ABs, with Young checking in at one every 13.1 ABs. Of Brown's 89 hits, 38 percent have gone for extra bases. Of Young's 280 hits, 29 percent have gone for extra bases.
Contact? Brown has struck out in 16 percent of his plate appearances. Young has struck out in 18 percent of his PAs. Advantage: Brown.
RBIs? Young has the edge there, averaging one every 8.1 plate appearances (Brown: 9.4 PAs). But Brown has scored runs at a higher rate, because he reaches base more (one every 8.6 PAs compared to one every 10.3 PAs for Young). And since RBIs and runs both equal the same number on the scoreboard, it is worth noting that Brown has produced an RBI or a run every 5.0 PAs, while Young has done so every 5.1 PAs. So even if you believe that runs and RBIs are valid metrics to measure performance, Brown has the slight edge there.
So what am I missing? Brown reaches base more, creates more bases with his hits, strikes out less, and produces runs at a higher rate. Over the course of a 600 plate appearance season, at the rates both players posted in 2011 and 2012, Young would give you a grand total of 2 more home runs, 30 more singles and 11 more RBIs at the expense of 40 more walks/HBPs, 4 more doubles, 3 more triples, 8 fewer strikeouts, 10 fewer double plays, and 12 more runs scored.
Again, at the rates both players have posted over the last two seasons, this is how a season of 600 plate appearances would look:
Domonic Brown: 600 PAs, 195 times on base, 14 home runs, 30 doubles, 4 triples, 98 strikeouts, 64 RBIs, 70 runs, 11 GIDPs.
Delmon Young: 600 PAs, 179 times on base, 16 home runs, 26 doubles, 1 triple, 106 strikeouts, 75 RBIs, 58 runs, 21 GIDPs.
Really, the best anybody can say for Young is that the two players' production has been similar. The big difference, of course, is that we at least have enough of a sample size to say that Young can be expected to give the Phillies mediocre production. Maybe you think we have enough of a sample size to say the same thing about Brown, and that he has already peaked at 24 years old, and that Young after seven years in the majors has more upside.
I'm just not sure that it makes sense to give Delmon Young his fourth opportunity to fulfil his potential before giving Domonic Brown his first real one.
Rube has to know 2013 and 2014 are lost. Overpaid aging talent has to come off the books. Limited farm talent has to come up huge. Would trade all 6 Phils outfielders (Ruf, Nix, Mayberry, Brown, Revere, and Young) for one Bryce Harper.— GreenWing- Good stuff, but here is the key point: It's about what a player does in the clutch, in the postseason, and when you compare the numbers between Young and Brown, Young has an MVP award and a .313 average and three homers and a ton of RBI in the most clutch situation in baseball lore. Therefore, with our chances of winning another World Series dwindles, I prefer to have Young playing in 2013 much more than Brown.— knebman
- smh Delmon Young had three good games over a four game stretch that never once saw him play the field. Outside of a two month stretch in 2010, he has never produced at a level that would indicate he should be starting at the major league level. He can't hit, field or run the bases. — freethinker88
- brown absolutely needs to play, and play every single day this year. the phillies are ridiculously bad at getting young players on the field. its why chase utley and ryan howard didn't make the big leagues as regulars until their mid-20's . if dom brown was a marlin or a brave, he'd be entering his third season as a full time starter by now and probably be putting up big numbers too.— Ryan
- Making outs is a fundamental truth in MLB that has only been recently recognized over the last10 seasons....or approximately about 5% of its lifetime. Somehow I still think Rubes philosophy is used by the majority of baseball people and billy Beane is still, 10 years later, in the minority...— michael2_19030
- wellll, finally, young murphy, you show some good sense, a tad of integrity. this signing is a colossal joke. no, i take that back, it ain't a joke coz it ain't the least bit funny. amaro is not just clueless - the adjective most bandied around in these posts - he is downright pathetic, and this signing underscores his out-of-control stupidity and arrogance. tis about time you yanked yon finger out and put forth the numbers that prove the preposterous notion of starting this slug in right. still, i wish you had the chutzpah to present the case against amaro as has john stolin in his column in another venue. amaro simply has to be put down before he ruins this club completely, and you and your fellow writers need to quit trying to be 'fair' and 'balanced' (it's way too late!) and be more honest in your assessment of the man.— bubba church & granny hamner
- Actually, whizzy, there is no joke to this. At the price, it is a deal that hasn't even a little downside to it. So what if Delmon Young doesn't do enough? It's not as if there have been millions sunk into a multi-year contract for him!
Fairly nicely idiotic rant, though!
GOOD GRIEF!— BEMiller - Amaro only knows how to trade young talent not develop it. If Ruf is not starting in left this year and is sent down I am done. This team is a 68 win team. Thanks Rubes.— Theo1980
- You forgot one factor to consider, Young bats right handed, and we need a bat against leftys. If he is used in that capacity will it raise Browns statistics as well as his own i this year in a platoon system?— Larry Byrd
- Man, that really puts it into perspective. Dave, the Phils need to hire you, my man. :-) I think a part of the puzzle is that they don't have the confidence that Brown will produce those numbers consistently, and that his potential may even be more limited. Whereas with Young, he has at least been a fairly consistent producer, and he has more potential than Brown. 2010 is the year I think they're setting their sites on w/Young, and, if he's motivated, he could be .300 hitter, 25HR, 90RBI guy. I could never see Brown doing that...and that's what the roll of this dice is all about.— johnandursula
- As dumb a piece as I've seen you write, Murph. Young's numbers are in the heat of a pennant race, and Brown just barely matches them in meaningless August and September games. Brown has had 3 years to put up or shut up, so too it's also wise to have a backup. Plus the other outfield possibles aren't exactly Babe Ruth, so who's to say one of them doesn't go. You should tell the real truth, which is WE SHOULDN'T BE IN THIS POSITION IN THE FIRST PLACE!!— cuyatm
- Amen! Let Dom start every day for 2 months.— Andy in E-town
- Delmon Young bats from the Right side. I'm sure that was the initial attraction to him. Also, he has the projected numbers over many more years than Brown. You may not think so, but Brown hasn't even had enough AB's to equal 1 season as a starter. He is either injured or doesn't produce. He'll get a chance I'm sure, but the clock is ticking. Phillies need the corner outfielders to produce, period, whether that is Young or Brown. I think Young's production is more assured than Brown's.— JackInSickerville
- Thank you! Don't know if anyone else has noticed this one! — BEMiller
- As an optimistic fan, I'm hoping the Young signing makes the lightbulb go off in Dom's head this spring, and he goes out and wins a corner spot outright. Put those tools to good work, and show everyone what the hype was all about.— Dave14
